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Nathaniel Whittemore argues AI doomerism hits a data wall

Tuesday, May 19, 2026 · from 4 podcasts
This Week in StartupsAI Daily BriefThe EconomistBankless
  • Data shows demand for software engineers is up 18% despite AI exposure, confounding predictions of mass job loss.
  • AI populism is the fastest-rising voter issue, driven by private executive pessimism and Gen Z's sense of betrayal.
  • Anthropic’s revenue exploded to $44B ARR, proving the shift from subscription 'seats' to agentic 'tokens'.

AI’s job apocalypse narrative is hitting a data wall. While figures like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei predict a future where capital no longer needs humans, the labor market tells a different story. According to Nathaniel Whittemore on The AI Daily Brief, demand for software engineers - the role most exposed to AI - hit its highest level since late 2023 and is accelerating, up 18% from a year ago.

"The narrative of an imminent AI-driven underclass is hitting a data wall. While Silicon Valley builders often predict mass unemployment, actual labor market data shows software engineering jobs - the role most exposed to AI - hit their highest levels since late 2023."

- Nathaniel Whittemore, The AI Daily Brief

Economist Callum Williams of The Economist argues this fear is historically illiterate, noting that even the Industrial Revolution saw employment triple over a century. Yet the sentiment has curdled into a potent political force. Jasmine Sun on Bankless reports AI is the fastest-rising issue in American polling. Savvy politicians like Bernie Sanders are tying it to old agendas, while the public reacts to a stark dissonance: tech executives publicly tout empowerment but privately admit the median worker is “screwed.”

For Gen Z, this isn't abstract. Jason Calacanis on This Week in Startups says recent graduates feel betrayed, having earned degrees only to face 100,000 tech layoffs this year and warnings that their skills are being liquidated. A viral essay by a Stanford senior described how AI cheating has dissolved the foundations of liberal arts education faster than the workforce.

"This generation has used ChatGPT for two years to complete degrees and understands the technology well, which fuels their cynicism about future job prospects."

- Jason Calacanis, This Week in Startups

Simultaneously, the AI economy’s structure is crystallizing into a duopoly. Data from The Information shows OpenAI and Anthropic now capture 89% of all AI startup revenue. Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue reportedly surged from $9 billion to over $44 billion this year, doubling every six weeks. This explosive growth, driven by the shift from flat-rate subscriptions to consumption-based “tokens,” is redefining software valuations and justifying trillions in data center spending.

The consensus among builders and economists is diverging. Ezra Klein argues AI labs may hype job loss to excite investors, while Sam Altman recently pivoted messaging to say job doomerism is “likely wrong.” The data backs the optimists for now, but the political and generational schism over who benefits is already real.

#Models#Labor#Startups
Dario AmodeiJasmine SunNathaniel WhittemoreSam AltmanAnthropicOpenAIChatGPT

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

This Week in Startups
This Week in Startups

Why is Gen Z hates AI? • May 18

  • Calacanis says this generation has used ChatGPT for two years to complete degrees and understands the technology well, which fuels their cynicism about future job prospects.
  • Hosts note a stark gap between business excitement about AI and average consumer sentiment, particularly among recent graduates entering the workforce during economic uncertainty.
  • A University of Utah study projected US data center construction jobs will peak and then decline, with total direct operations jobs reaching only about 65,000 by 2030.
  • Calacanis highlights that tech companies cut 100,000 jobs in the first part of the year, a figure already surpassing the total data center jobs projected for 2030.
  • Calacanis believes the only way to escape a permanent underclass in the AI economy is to start a company, as being a worker for someone else makes you a cost center.
  • Jason Calacanis advocates for 'delightful scale' companies making $500k to $5M annually as a viable path, arguing necessity and modern tools like ChatGPT lower the barrier to entry.
  • The Information reports Anthropic and OpenAI generate 89% of all AI startup revenue, creating a duopoly that is consolidating power.
  • Hosts note that six months ago, Anthropic and OpenAI represented 4.5% less of total startup AI revenue, indicating they are rapidly gaining market share.
  • Calacanis argues AI model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic are likely selling tokens at a massive loss currently, similar to Uber and Lyft's early subsidized growth phases.
  • Hosts discuss the risk for application-layer AI startups, as major labs gaining access to their usage data could quickly build competing features and erase their market.
  • Calacanis believes running AI models locally on hardware like Mac Studios is the future for privacy and cost reasons, not a fad, especially for sensitive corporate data.
Also from this episode: (5)

AI & Tech (2)

  • Jason Calacanis argues college graduates fear AI not out of simple anxiety but from feeling betrayed by tech leaders like Eric Schmidt, who they believe have bad intent about job displacement.
  • Jason Calacanis advises against using AI alone to file patents due to the high-stakes, specialized legal nature of IP, though it can be used with a human-in-the-loop for initial work.

Education (1)

  • A viral New York Times essay by Stanford senior Theo Baker claimed cheating with AI is omnipresent on campus, dissolving the foundations of liberal arts education faster than the workforce.

Society (2)

  • The shooting incident in Austin highlighted the privacy-versus-safety debate around Flock Safety's license plate readers, which the city council had removed but a neighboring county used to capture suspects.
  • Calacanis suggests potential safeguards for surveillance tech like Flock include strict audit trails, biometric access logs, and enforced data retention policies of up to 36 months.
#Startups#Labor#Big Tech#Regulation
The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis

Nathaniel Whittemore

Beating the AI Doom Cycle • May 18

  • Nathaniel Whittemore identifies an emerging "AI vibe shift," characterized by a growing discourse that moves beyond doomerism, appearing in both job market discussions and financial markets. This dual emergence suggests a potential narrative shift rather than a temporary blip.
  • Jasmine Sun's New York Times essay, "Silicon Valley is bracing for a permanent underclass," reflects a prevalent doomer narrative among AI builders in Silicon Valley who believe AI will eliminate jobs. Whittemore questions over-reliance on builders' perspectives due to potential biases and their limited understanding of broader economic impacts.
  • Ezra Klein argues that the AI job apocalypse is unlikely, highlighting AI labs' role in creating negative narratives to excite investors or unwind post-COVID hiring. Economists, he notes, are generally skeptical of mass joblessness.
  • Klein cites ASU professor Eldar Maximov's research, indicating that employment grew faster in occupations heavily adopting computers than in those that did not. Cost reductions from task automation led to new demand, expanding overall occupations.
  • Klein also uses a personal example, noting his podcast team grew significantly after starting with one researcher, leading to more extensive and challenging episodes. He observes that enthusiastic AI adopters are working harder than ever due to increased possibilities.
  • Klein suggests AI is more likely to displace a limited number of workers rather than cause mass unemployment. He argues this localized displacement, similar to the 2 million jobs lost to Chinese competition, might be harder to manage than a mass event.
  • Macroeconomic data does not support the doomer narrative, with the unemployment rate at 4.3% in March 2026 and 4.4% in March 2020, and stable average hourly earnings. Demand for software engineers, despite AI exposure, continues to accelerate, up 18% since May last year.
  • Anthony Pompliano notes a shift in his view, now observing increasing hires for software engineers and growing open roles. He states that new college grad hires rose 5.6% over the past 12 months, and unemployment for 20-24 year-olds with college degrees dropped from nearly 9% to almost 5%.
  • A Wall Street Journal and LinkedIn analysis reports AI created 640,000 jobs in the US between 2023 and 2025, including new white-collar positions like Head of AI. Pompliano suggests companies are aggressively hiring, leveraging AI to boost employee productivity.
  • Merzmik Ahmed argues that AI increasing demand for software engineers is now a tech consensus. He applies Jevons' paradox, explaining that cheaper "digital bricks" (code) make previously expensive projects feasible, thus expanding demand for builders.
  • Greg Eisenberg predicts an unprecedented explosion of entrepreneurship as intelligence becomes cheaper and displaced workers create new businesses out of necessity and opportunity. Stripe Atlas data supports this, with 100,000 incorporations and Q1 up 130% year-over-year.
  • The market narrative has shifted from "seats" to "tokens," as AI agents consume vastly more resources, making a single user generate hundreds or thousands of dollars monthly in token sales. This redefines the economic model for AI companies.
  • Atlassian's stock surged almost 30% after its earnings report, with revenue growth accelerating to 32% (from 23% last quarter). Customers using their new AI search tool, Rovo, increased their own ARR at twice the rate of non-users.
  • The Associated Press reports that construction unions are collaborating with tech companies to overcome community opposition to data centers. Rob Bear of the Pennsylvania Building and Construction Trades Council emphasizes data centers create significant construction jobs.
  • Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, stated on May 1st that the goal is to augment and elevate people, not replace them, and believes jobs doomerism is likely wrong long-term. He also noted that even with powerful AI, he has "never been busier."
Also from this episode: (7)

AI & Tech (4)

  • Roger Karma in The Atlantic notes a market shift: from concerns over AI infrastructure lacking profitability six months ago, to fears of insufficient data centers today. This change is driven by revenue catching up to hype, particularly with the rise of "Claude code."
  • Anthropic's run rate revenue surpassed $30 billion by early April. SemiAnalysis reports its ARR surged from $9 billion to over $44 billion today, doubling every six weeks, with inference margins reportedly at 70%, up from 38% last year.
  • Ming Li highlights Anthropic's rapid growth, noting it's adding $96 million in ARR per day. He contrasts this with AWS taking 13 years to reach $35 billion and Salesforce over 20 years to pass $20 billion, indicating that old software valuation frameworks are obsolete.
  • Economic commentator Noah Smith views Altman's statements as a "huge messaging pivot" for OpenAI and the AI industry, which previously explicitly stated goals of replacing humanity. This shift suggests a more constructive dialogue about AI's impact.

Big Tech (2)

  • Morgan Stanley raised CapEx forecasts for five hyperscalers to $805 billion this year (from $765 billion) and $1.1 trillion next year (from $951 billion). Andreas Steno Larsen notes that the backlog of demand for additional capacity is rising even faster than CapEx spend.
  • Mag Seven companies spent over $400 billion in CapEx in Q1 this year, but their reported and projected backlog stands around $1.3 trillion, indicating significant unmet demand. David Sacks argues AI CapEx will contribute a 2% tailwind to GDP growth this year, potentially 2.5% this year and over 3% next year per Morgan Stanley.

Enterprise (1)

  • Atlassian's Rovo leverages existing knowledge graphs in Jira and Confluence for context, significantly reducing token usage compared to token-hungry RAG search. This token efficiency, crucial in an agent intelligence era, helps maintain seat-based pricing models.
#Agents#Enterprise#Startups#Labor#Macro
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Fired alarm: AI hype versus labour-market history • May 14

  • Callum Williams says polling shows the average American believes they have a 20% chance of losing their job in the next five years, a sentiment echoed by AI leaders.
  • Recent scholarship challenges the 'Engels' Pause' narrative of wage stagnation from 1790-1840, noting slow productivity growth and rapid population growth meant steady wages were a positive outcome.
  • For the first time, the unemployment rate for new graduates exceeds the overall rate, but Williams attributes this weakening labor position to factors predating ChatGPT, not AI.
Also from this episode: (10)

AI & Tech (4)

  • Williams argues that rapid, economy-wide job destruction from new technology is historically unprecedented, as even the Industrial Revolution saw British employment nearly triple in the century after 1760.
  • Williams notes mid-20th century job disruption from computers and new manufacturing was much higher than today or during the Industrial Revolution, yet that period is now seen as a golden age for workers.
  • Williams proposes a historical benchmark: if US per-person GDP growth exceeds 2-2.5% annually alongside high corporate profits and broad job losses, it would signal an unprecedented AI disruption, which current data does not show.
  • Williams suggests Silicon Valley's doomsaying stems from historical ignorance and a poor model of how average people use technology, more than just branding for IPOs.

Trade (2)

  • John McDermott reports the Kabanga nickel deposit in Tanzania, known for 50 years, is now pivotal as the West seeks alternatives to China's dominance of the nickel supply chain from Indonesia.
  • New Western competition is making China more amenable to African requests for on-site mineral processing, a shift from the old model of just shipping raw ore.

Diplomacy (1)

  • McDermott says the US is using diplomatic pressure, making support for Tanzania conditional on progress at Kabanga, as part of a broader, muscular effort to insert American firms into African mining from the DRC to Zambia.

Politics (1)

  • McDermott argues Africa's estimated $9 trillion in untapped mineral wealth means nothing without the infrastructure and careful policymaking to capture value, warning that slapdash export bans can deter needed investment.

Culture (2)

  • Japan's national football team, the Samurai Blue, aims to win the upcoming World Cup, having previously reached only the round of 16, most recently in 2018 and 2022.
  • The team faces setbacks with injuries to key players like captain Wataru Endo and star Keiru Mitoma ahead of their group stage matches against Sweden, Tunisia, and the Netherlands.
#Macro#Labor#Energy#Trade
Bankless
Bankless

Will AI Populism Decide the 2028 Election? | Jasmine Sun • May 13

  • Sun argues AI populism differs from anti-crypto sentiment because AI drives a larger share of GDP and has higher consumer adoption.
  • Sun cites Anthropic hitting a $30 billion annual run rate and notes AI leaders like Dario Amodei predicting mass job loss lend credibility to populist fears.
  • Sun explains AI industry executives often express bleak private views on job displacement but avoid saying them publicly.
  • Sun steelmans Dario Amodei's job loss argument by saying AI could break the link between human labor and productivity, unlike past automation.
  • Sun's own view expects near-term disruption for easily automated jobs like software engineering, but not an apocalypse, with significant political resentment.
  • Sun suggests policy responses should include longer unemployment insurance, universal healthcare for freelancers, and rethinking education.
  • Sun proposes shortening the work week as a preferable alternative to mass unemployment if AI automation accelerates.
  • Sun advocates for a grand bargain where productivity gains are shared, citing historical union bargaining as a model to avoid backlash.
Also from this episode: (5)

AI & Tech (5)

  • Jasmine Sun says AI populism ranks 29th in salience among voter issues but has risen faster than any other issue over the last year according to Blue Rose Research polling.
  • Sun notes politicians like Bernie Sanders tie AI to core economic issues voters care about, framing it as an elite project to be resisted.
  • Sun points to violent attacks on Sam Altman and the healthcare CEO murder as examples of extreme online nihilism, not a unified movement.
  • Sun observes AI populism coalitions are bipartisan, uniting environmentalists, family-first conservatives, and creatives against tech elites.
  • Sun warns AI super PAC endorsements can become a political liability due to populist sentiment, unlike crypto's Fairshake PAC.
#Macro#Labor#Big Tech#Regulation#Society

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