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All-In predicts Anthropic and OpenAI IPO within nine months

Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · from 2 podcasts
All-InAI Daily Brief
  • SpaceX’s trillion-dollar IPO provides a public market blueprint for Anthropic and OpenAI.
  • Anthropic’s first profitable quarter at a $44 billion annualized run rate debunks AI bubble thesis.
  • Enterprise token costs double every 45 days, forcing a shift to ROI-focused agentic pods.

AI labs are no longer speculative bets. They are utility businesses with valuations that demand sustained 30% annual growth.

On All-In, Brad Gerstner argued SpaceX’s recent $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation is a textbook IPO event. He sees Anthropic and OpenAI hitting public markets within six to nine months. With rumored revenues trending toward $70 billion for OpenAI and over $100 billion for Anthropic, Gerstner expects they would trade at a combined $3 trillion if they exited today.

"These companies are being priced at multiples that demand sustained 30% annual revenue growth."

- Brad Gerstner, All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

The AI Daily Brief reported a week earlier that Anthropic had reached its first profitable quarter, forecasting $10.9 billion revenue for Q2 and an annualized $44 billion run rate. Journalist Derek Thompson noted that if compute-constrained, the lab could hit over $100 billion in annual revenue. OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing as soon as, according to host Nathaniel Whittemore.

The financial milestone comes as enterprise spending hits an ROI asymptote. Chamath Palihapitiya warned on All-In that token costs at some companies are doubling every 45 days with minimal downstream productivity lift. CFOs are now building agentic pods to route tasks to cheaper models.

David Sacks pointed out that despite buzz around open-source models, their share of enterprise wallet has fallen from 19% to 11%. This lack of technical talent to manage middleware creates a winner-take-most dynamic, locking enterprises into frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic.

"If a model doesn't show a direct lift to earnings per share, the spending will be the first thing a CFO cuts during the next earnings miss."

- Chamath Palihapitiya, All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

The race is set. OpenAI’s imminent filing and Anthropic’s profitability signal divergent paths to the same finish line: a trillion-dollar exit.

#Models#Enterprise#AI Infrastructure
Nathaniel WhittemoreAnthropicSpaceXOpenAI

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts • Jul 11

  • Gavin Baker predicts Anthropic will end 2026 with over $100 billion in revenue and would trade at a $3 trillion valuation if it went public immediately.
  • SpaceX's IPO raised $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, trading today around a $2 trillion market cap on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue.
  • Brad Gerstner asserts Anthropic and OpenAI have very high chances of going public in the next six to nine months, barring a major geopolitical black swan event.
  • Chamath Palihapitiya reports his company's token costs are doubling every 45 days while downstream productivity gains are only 5%.
  • Brad Gerstner sees unprecedented revenue growth for AI labs, arguing Anthropic's trajectory could lead revenue to 3-5x again next year from over $100 billion.
  • Chamath Palihapitiya highlights enterprise AI ROI skepticism, citing an analysis that S&P 493 EPS growth was only 9%, largely from inflation-driven pricing power.
  • David Sacks points to data showing open-source AI's share of enterprise wallet has decreased from 19% to 11% while frontier labs' revenue skyrockets.
  • Brad Gerstner argues the AI TAM is the largest ever seen, driving revenue growth because intelligence-on-demand impacts every person in every organization simultaneously.
  • Chamath Palihapitiya describes sovereign AI as a major trend, noting after a UN commission that no country wants to subjugate itself to closed-source American models.
  • David Sacks says China's strategy mimics OpenAI's: stay open-source to catch up, then go closed-source to capture value, with top models like GLM 5.2 now closing.
  • David Sacks explains the tax and estate planning advantages of Trump Accounts: a $5,000 annual contribution limit, employer tax-free contributions up to $2,500, and tax-free compounding until 18.
  • Brad Gerstner frames Trump Accounts as a direct philanthropic platform aiming to raise $100 billion in 12 months, countering socialist dependency models with private wealth-building.
  • Jason Calacanis highlights major philanthropic contributions to Trump Accounts: Michael Dell donated $6 billion, Gwen Shotwell contributed $350 million in SpaceX shares, and Brad Gerstner gave $100 million.
Also from this episode: (1)

Big Tech (1)

  • Brad Gerstner reveals Trump Accounts launched on July 4th, creating over 1.5 million accounts in 24 hours and seeing over $1 billion in deposits.
#Startups#Enterprise#Models#Open Source
The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis

Nathaniel Whittemore

Anthropic Can Now Read Claude’s Mind • Jul 7

  • Nathaniel Whittemore reports OpenAI expects to file confidential IPO paperwork as soon as Friday, targeting readiness by September.
  • Whittemore states the resolution of Elon Musk's lawsuit cleared a path for OpenAI's IPO, removing a potential risk that could have unwound its for-profit structure.
  • Anthropic reportedly targets an October IPO but is assembling a final private round, making it unlikely to accelerate its timeline to match OpenAI.
  • Bloomberg's Conor Sen notes a strategic competition, with three companies valued between $1 to $2 trillion racing to IPO and potentially testing public market liquidity.
  • The Information reports a new White House AI executive order could arrive by the end of the week, proposing a voluntary 90-day government review for advanced models prior to release.
  • Major AI labs are pushing for a shorter 14-day review timeline, arguing a longer period could significantly slow their iterative release cadence.
  • The rumored executive order also instructs the Pentagon to harden critical systems within 30 days and tasks the Treasury to establish an AI clearinghouse.
  • Whittemore interprets the policy framework as resembling Anthropic's Glass Wing rollout, focusing on formal preparedness protocols rather than restricting releases.
  • OpenAI launched Guaranteed Capacity, a program offering enterprises one-to-three-year commitments for discounts and service certainty, shifting AI billing toward a cloud-like model.
  • The Uber CTO revealed in April the company burned its entire annual AI token budget in just four months, highlighting the budgeting challenge for executives.
  • Cursor's Composer 2.5 model ranks third on the Artificial Analysis coding agent index and operates at 10 to 60 times lower cost than high-effort Opus 47 and GPT 55 settings.
  • OpenAI is offering 2 million tokens to Y Combinator startups in exchange for equity, a move Tyler Bosmeny compares to headcount cash rather than free AWS credits.
  • Former OpenAI founding member Andrej Karpathy announced he joined Anthropic, signaling a major talent shift and strengthening Anthropic's research bench.
  • Nicholas Joseph stated Karpathy will build a team at Anthropic focused on using Claude to accelerate pre-training research itself, advancing recursive self-improvement concepts.
  • Observer TMT Long Shot argues Karpathy's move indicates proximity to recursive self-intelligence, which would explosively increase compute value as AI invent use cases faster than supply scales.
  • Anthropic financials show a forecasted $10.9 billion revenue for Q2 and an annualized $44 billion run rate, marking the first profitable quarter for any foundation AI lab with an operating profit of $559 million.
  • Journalist Derek Thompson suggests an unconstrained Anthropic could achieve over $100 billion in annual revenue, challenging earlier profitability timelines from the labs.
  • Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $81.6 billion, beating estimates, with data center revenue growing 92% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated the company sells zero chips in China and has conceded that market to Huawei, which he expects will have an extraordinary year.
  • Anthropic deepened its partnership with SpaceX, scaling GB200 capacity in the Colossus 2 data center throughout June.
Also from this episode: (2)

AI Infrastructure (2)

  • SpaceX's IPO filing reveals Anthropic agreed to pay $45 billion over three years for Colossus compute, roughly $1.25 billion monthly, making it SpaceX's biggest revenue generator.
  • Elon Musk tweeted that SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale and is in discussions with other companies, anticipating orbital data centers will enable extreme scale.
#Models#Big Tech#Markets#Startups#AI Infrastructure

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