Currency historian Barry Eichengreen warns the dollar’s dominance isn’t fading overnight - it’s thawing. He frames reserve status as a promise of stability anchored in democratic institutions, citing the Roman denarius’s 80% to 5% silver decline as a historical template. The dollar currently clings to roughly 60% of global reserves, down from over 70% in the late nineties, losing about 0.5% of its share each year.
“Dominant currencies erode slowly for decades before collapsing in sudden, violent chunks.”
- Barry Eichengreen, Bankless
Eichengreen argues the dollar’s primary rival isn’t China’s renminbi, but institutional decay at home. The currency’s strength relies on an independent Federal Reserve and a rule of law investors trust. On The Peter McCormack Show, Freddie New deepens this analogy, drawing a direct parallel between modern welfare states and Roman legions - both as captive constituencies that demand perpetual funding. He notes the British pound has lost 95% of its value in the last century, matching the denarius’s 150-year death spiral.
New sees collapse not as a riot, but as unmaintained roads and nihilism. When inflation hollows out honest labor, people retreat into digital fantasies. Eichengreen agrees the dollar’s fall wouldn’t crown a single successor but fragment the system toward gold, middle-power currencies, and digital assets, ending the ‘exorbitant privilege’ of cheap crisis insurance.
“Western governments have replaced Roman legions with a welfare-dependent class to secure political power.”
- Freddie New, The Peter McCormack Show
The euro lacks a unified treasury; the renminbi lacks political transparency. Eichengreen calls this the ‘cleanest shirt in the laundry’ theory, forcing the world to stick with the dollar by default. Yet he warns that default status isn’t a shield. If confidence in the U.S. Treasury breaks, capital will flow out, driving interest rates up and crashing local markets. The question is whether the melt remains gradual or snaps.


