Anthropic’s private valuation has spawned a $200 billion secondary market, a complex web of SPVs trading promises rather than shares. Dio Casares argues the structure is a fee extraction engine. Brokers charge 10% upfront plus carry for access to blocks of Anthropic or SpaceX shares, creating a recursive loop where middlemen out-earn primary investors. The further from the cap table, the more an investor buys a promise - one that can vanish if an employee gets fired or sued.
"Even fund managers are pivoting to this brokerage model because the margins are too high to ignore."
- Dio Casares, Bankless
Casares estimates 10% to 20% of secondary deals involve fraud or misrepresentation, with brokers trading employee forward contracts - bets on future delivery that collapse if the employee leaves. Buyers are left holding empty contracts while brokers keep their fees. Many participants draft these high-stakes agreements using AI, not lawyers.
Anthropic has drawn a hard line, labeling any tokenized shares or SPV transfers without board approval as void and potentially fraudulent. On Bitcoin And, David Bennett noted that platforms like PreStokes imply a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic, but the actual assets backing those tokens are a rounding error - roughly $23 million. These synthetic products offer zero shareholder rights.
"The friction is structural. Private companies use restricted stock to control who sits at the table."
- David Bennett, Bitcoin And
Investors assume an IPO provides a clean exit, but Casares predicts a logistical nightmare. Shares must filter through DTCC and multiple SPV layers with unique payout rules. A GP might hold stock to juice their carry, leaving downstream LPs waiting weeks while the price fluctuates. The legal system will spend years untangling unauthorized gray market trades. Once public, management loses incentive to police the cap table, but the damage from years of bad contracts remains. The reckoning is coming.
