Ternus inherits Apple’s AI gamble

Labor (2)

• David Sacks points out that government pension plans, unlike corporate 401Ks, are underfunded due to public employee unions, threatening to bankrupt U.S. governments.
• Jason Calacanis suggests that government waste, fraud, and abuse in California, exemplified by the homeless industrial complex, could be addressed by eliminating a minimum of 20-30% of inefficiencies.

Corruption (3)

• The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is facing allegations of wire fraud and money laundering between 2014 and 2023, specifically for funneling over $3 million to informants in hate groups.
• SPLC allegedly paid an informant, F-37, over $270,000 between 2015 and 2023, who was a member of the online leadership chat group that planned the 2017 Unite the Right event in Charlottesville.
• David Sacks states the SPLC's fundraising doubled to $136 million after Charlottesville from $58 million in 2016, suggesting the alleged actions were a 'grift' to increase donations.

Politics (3)

• Chamath Palihapitiya calls for the dismantling of NGOs that 'cosplay as overlords' and urges donors to sue the SPLC, citing $822 million allegedly held in offshore bank accounts.
• David Friedberg criticizes 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations for straying from their IRS-defined charitable activities, suggesting many operate with commercial or misaligned interests.
• David Sacks posits that civil rights organizations, once achieving their goals, shifted from ensuring equality of opportunity to demanding equality of outcomes, rebranded as 'anti-racism'.

Big Tech (1)

• Chamath Palihapitiya argues that Tim Cook was an excellent steward, significantly shrinking Apple's share count by 44% and investing in R&D and proprietary silicon, but faces the challenge of adapting to a more heterogeneous device future.

Biology (2)

• A Spanish research team linked the pesticide Picloram, developed by Dow Chemical in 1963, to a scary 80% rise in colorectal cancer in people under 50 over the last two decades.
• David Friedberg notes that epigenomic studies can now detect long-term effects of chemicals like Picloram, which persists in the environment and has a 3x odds ratio for colon cancer in areas of high use.

Macro (5)

• Michael Howell describes the global liquidity cycle as inflecting lower into a "speculation" phase, preceding "turbulence," a difficult period for risk assets. He forecasts flattening yield curves as liquidity diminishes.
• Michael Howell defines global liquidity as money in financial markets, reflecting the balance sheet capacity of credit providers, distinct from real economy liquidity like M1 or M2. Central bank balance sheets are minor in the overall liquidity equation.
• Michael Howell states money in financial markets and the real economy are distinct, with surpluses in one spilling into the other. The real economy typically lags the liquidity cycle by 15 to 20 months.
• Michael Howell observes current economic data, including US ISM new orders and the Philly Fed index, show robust strength, contrary to media recession forecasts. He notes an AI-based model indicates the Iran conflict dented world growth by only 0.5-0.75%, significantly less than the 4% impact of COVID.
• Michael Howell contends that rising commodity prices, particularly oil, often destroy liquidity and mark the end of a cycle. He cites the historic counter-cyclical relationship between commodities and bonds as evidence.

Fed (3)

• Michael Howell highlights a shift from Fed QE to Treasury QE, where the Treasury issues more bills, predominantly bought by banks. This mechanism effectively monetizes government spending, injecting liquidity and providing stimulus.
• Michael Howell notes the Fed's "reserve management purchases" were a direct intervention, despite denials of being QE, to inject liquidity and curb repo spread spikes. He estimates bank reserves were about $400 billion below adequate levels by early December, leading to a $600 billion net change from trough to peak.
• Michael Howell questions the feasibility of returning the Fed's balance sheet to pre-2008 levels, citing a 5.5-fold increase in federal debt since the GFC and a halving of dealer capacity. He contends the Fed must retain its role as guardian of the bond market.

Markets (3)

• Michael Howell’s framework centers on markets as debt refinancing mechanisms requiring liquidity. He highlights the paradox where debt needs liquidity for rollover, while liquidity needs debt as collateral, noting 77% of global lending is collateral-based.
• Michael Howell explains the Treasury uses buybacks to replace longer-dated coupons with shorter-dated bills, directly targeting the MOVE index to improve liquidity. A 10-point MOVE index increase correlates with a $28 billion rise in Treasury buybacks.
• Felix Salmon and Michael Howell agree that decreasing the average duration of assets, like swapping long-duration instruments for shorter-dated bills, expands liquidity even if it's an asset swap.

Models (2)

• Dario Amodei met with White House officials, including Susie Wiles and Scott Bessett, to discuss Mythos' cybersecurity implications, a meeting seen by Nathaniel Whittemore as a potential detente after recent hostile rhetoric.
• Axios reported the NSA is actively using Anthropic's Mythos preview model, despite the Department of Defense classifying Anthropic as a supply chain risk, indicating cybersecurity needs may outweigh inter-agency disputes.

Safety (1)

• AI development platform Vercel disclosed a security incident where Shiny Hunters, a sophisticated criminal group, accessed systems via compromised employee credentials and exfiltrated user data; Guillermo Rauch suspects AI accelerated the attack.

Chips (1)

• TSMC reported a 35% revenue boost and forecasts over 30% growth but faces capacity limits, with ASML unable to supply lithography machines. Nikkei Asia predicts memory chip shortages until at least 2027, meeting only 60% of demand.

Big Tech (2)

• Amazon expanded its Anthropic partnership with a $25 billion investment, providing 5 gigawatts of compute, including Tranium 3 chips, to resolve Anthropic's inference shortage and ensure Claude's availability via AWS.
• Meta is reportedly planning 10% layoffs impacting approximately 8,000 workers, but also launched "Level Up," a free four-week program with CBRE to train fiber technicians for data center construction, addressing an acute labor shortage.

Society (2)

• Moika Iida reports that women are disproportionately leaving rural Japan for cities due to economic and cultural factors, straining local industries and public services. A 2014 government report warned nearly 900 municipalities could face extinction.
• Japanese towns are implementing gender equality initiatives, like workshops and anti-sexism manga, to retain women, but Moika Iida notes a tension. Towns often combine these efforts with government-backed matchmaking to encourage marriage and childbirth.

Labor (1)

• Koyasu Miwa cites Japan's large gender pay gap, especially in rural areas, and a lack of appealing jobs as economic reasons for women's exodus. Deep-seated patriarchal norms also pressure women regarding marriage and family.

History (1)

• Catherine Nixey states that boredom emerged as a new disease in 18th-century Britain, blamed for social ills and causing lethargy. The word 'bored' first appeared in English in 1768, the same year as 'interesting.'

Psychology (3)

• Søren Kierkegaard called boredom the 'root of all evil,' and by the 1840s, it reached epidemic proportions in Britain. Scientists have found bored individuals are more prone to binge drinking and sadistic acts.
• In a Science study, researchers found many participants preferred electric shocks over being alone with their thoughts. This highlights the unpleasantness of solitude and is cited by Catherine Nixey as evidence of boredom's depth.
• Catherine Nixey observes a modern anxiety about the scarcity of boredom in Britain, now described as an 'endangered state.' Indirect evidence includes declining rates of drinking, reading, and sex among young Britons.