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AI & TECH

Anthropic predicts automated AI research by 2028

Monday, May 11, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
Moonshots with Peter Diam…Ezra Klein ShowThis Week in AI
  • Anthropic's co-founder gives 60% odds that AI research will be fully automated by 2028.
  • OpenAI's o1 model diagnosed patients correctly 67% of the time, beating ER doctors in a Harvard study.
  • Adoption hinges on legal liability, not accuracy, as private equity forces AI into legacy firms.

AI is on the verge of automating its own inventors. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark puts a 60% probability on AI research and development operating without human input by the end of 2028. Within his own company, engineers have already stopped writing code, acting instead as auditors for Claude’s output.

"Once a species builds a system that learns to build itself, the traditional innovation curve becomes irrelevant."

- Naveen Rao, This Week in AI

The technology is already proving its utility in high-stakes fields. A study at Boston’s Beth Israel Medical Center found OpenAI’s o1 model identified correct diagnoses 67% of the time, while emergency room physicians averaged 50-55%. The bottleneck to deployment is legal, not technical. As Trey Halterman noted on This Week in AI, human doctors hold the licenses and liability, creating a buffer between superior AI diagnostics and patient treatment.

Adoption is being forced through a new channel: private equity. OpenAI’s $10 billion venture with TPG and Anthropic’s $1.5 billion deal with Blackstone, discussed on Moonshots, let investment firms mandate AI integration across thousands of portfolio companies. This strategy bypasses corporate middle management entirely, accelerating a forced transition to automated workflows.

Regulators are scrambling to catch up. The White House, reacting to models like Claude Mythos that can discover cybersecurity vulnerabilities the government cannot, is signaling a shift toward mandatory pre-release model vetting. This move creates a tension between national security and competitive speed, with some warning it could cause the U.S. to fall behind.

The financial scale of the race is unprecedented. Morgan Stanley forecasts hyperscaler spending on AI compute will hit $1.1 trillion by 2027, a surge driven by the new primary constraint: energy scarcity. The winner won’t just have the best model, but the most efficient way to power it.

#Models#Enterprise#Regulation
AnthropicBlackstoneOpenAIClaude

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

Google's Record Quarter, the White House Intervenes, and GPT 5.5 Silently Matches Mythos | EP 254 • May 9

  • Google Cloud revenue hit $20 billion with 63% growth, outpacing AWS and Azure, aided by AI demand and offering TPU capacity to other labs.
  • Dave Blundon warns that strict government gatekeeping of AI models could cause the U.S. to fall behind geopolitically, while Alex Susskind Gross is more concerned frontier labs will self-censor aggressively and stifle competition.
  • The Pentagon signed AI agreements with seven companies including Google and OpenAI, prompting protests and unionization efforts from Google employees concerned about military applications.
  • Compute is now a perpetually constrained resource; Google internally allocates new capacity weekly between its search, cloud, and DeepMind divisions based on which generates the most dollar value per token.
  • OpenAI missed its 2025 target of 1 billion weekly ChatGPT users and other revenue goals, which Alex Susskind Gross attributes to a failed bet on consumer demand over enterprise.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic are partnering with private equity firms like TPG and Blackstone to deploy AI across portfolio companies, a top-down method Salim Ismail calls the 'organizational singularity.'
  • Brian Elliott says Blitzy raised $200M at a $1.4B valuation and focuses on large-scale autonomous software development for enterprises, using multiple frontier models in orchestration to generate thousands of lines of code.
Also from this episode: (6)

AI & Tech (3)

  • Google's Q1 earnings were $109.9 billion with 22% YoY growth and $62.6 billion in profit, driven by AI across its ecosystem.
  • Alex Susskind Gross argues the White House's proposed model-vetting process stems from a 'sea change' where private sector AI capabilities, like Claude Mythos, leapfrogged government agencies in areas like cybersecurity vulnerability discovery.
  • Sam Altman has shifted from advocating Universal Basic Income to proposing citizens get a stake in AI's upside through compute access or a public wealth fund, following a three-year UBI study.

AI Infrastructure (3)

  • OpenAI ended its Azure exclusivity and now runs on AWS, Google Cloud, and Oracle, a move Alex Susskind Gross links to Microsoft's inability to meet OpenAI's voracious compute appetite.
  • Semiconductor and energy stocks are skyrocketing due to infinite AI compute demand; Intel is up 442% over the past year, with data center construction shifting to rural areas, oceans, and space.
  • Peter Thiel is backing ocean-based data center startup Panthalassa, raising $140M at a $1B valuation, citing advantages in cooling, energy from waves, and avoiding land-use regulations.
#Regulation#Enterprise#Big Tech#Models
The Ezra Klein Show
The Ezra Klein Show

GLP-1s and the ‘Wild West’ of Wellness • May 8

  • The most common side effects are gastrointestinal: nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Lawsuits cite other severe potential problems like stomach paralysis and ocular nerve damage.
  • Novel compounds like retatrutide, which targets three hormone receptors, are circulating illicitly. Julia Blues warns these lack long-term safety data, despite social media hype about faster weight loss and increased metabolism.
  • Julia Blues argues the GLP-1 era collides with a wellness-obsessed algorithmic age, enabled by telemedicine and direct-to-consumer marketing, creating a 'wild west' for untested optimization.
  • Blues points to historical parallels like the post-WWI weight loss drug derived from explosives, which caused severe side effects. She advocates for a conservative, regulatory approach to protect public health.
  • Julia Blues advocates for systemic food environment changes, like restricting junk food marketing to kids and making healthy food accessible, to prevent diet-caused diseases rather than relying solely on pharmaceutical interventions.
Also from this episode: (12)

Health (12)

  • One in eight Americans is currently taking a GLP-1 drug according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll.
  • GLP-1 drugs were originally developed for diabetes. They stimulate insulin secretion only when blood sugar is high, reducing the risk of dangerous lows.
  • These drugs cause weight loss by suppressing appetite, acting on GLP-1 receptors in the brain. Researchers believe they signal a toxin-like state, similar to food poisoning, to curb hunger.
  • The weight loss effect from drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound is significant, averaging around 15% body weight. This rivals the efficacy of more effective bariatric surgeries.
  • Common obesity arises from genetic variants acting in the brain. This neurobiology, combined with a hyper-palatable food environment, makes weight management a physiological struggle, not simply a failure of willpower.
  • Julia Blues reports that effective GLP-1 users describe a silencing of 'food noise,' granting them a sense of willpower they never had. Variation in response exists, with some people being highly sensitive to the drugs and others not.
  • Weight regain is typical when people stop taking GLP-1s because the appetite-suppressing effect on the brain ceases. The drugs treat a chronic condition and require ongoing use, similar to statins or insulin.
  • Julia Blues notes pediatricians are prescribing GLP-1s to children without screening for eating disorders. She fears the drugs could exacerbate disordered eating in a culture with punishing body image standards.
  • GLP-1 drugs show significant, weight-independent health benefits. In trials, they produced a 20% reduction in cardiovascular event risk, comparable to statins' 29% reduction. They also show benefits for liver and kidney disease.
  • Researchers theorize three mechanisms: direct weight loss, fine-tuning of chronic inflammation without immunosuppression, and direct organ-healing signals to the liver and kidneys.
  • A New York Times poll found 63% of GLP-1 users would stay on the drug even without weight loss benefits, citing unexpected improvements in conditions like post-concussion syndrome.
  • Ezra Klein reports anhedonia and depression on a low dose of tirzepatide. Anecdotal reports suggest the drugs dial down addictive behaviors, but long-term addiction treatment data is mixed and incomplete.
#Health#Longevity#Nutrition#Biology
This Week in AI
This Week in AI

Is Anthropic a Cult? AI Beats ER Doctors & Recursive Self-Improvement | This Week in AI E12 • May 6

  • Jason Calacanis cites a Harvard study where OpenAI's O1 model outperformed ER doctors in diagnostic accuracy.
  • Trey Halterman explains that AI adoption in ERs is driven by competitive dynamics, as physician groups pitch AI co-pilots to win hospital contracts.
  • Trey Halterman notes that Epic is the dominant EHR system with high margins and channel power, which they use to outcompete new entrants.
  • Naveen Ralph argues that recursively self-improving AI is imminent, defining intelligence as a species building something that learns to build itself.
  • Jason Calacanis cites Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark's prediction of a 60% probability for fully automated AI R&D without human input by the end of 2028.
  • Jason Calacanis cites Brian Noak's forecast that hyperscaler AI capex will rise from $805 billion in 2026 to $1.1 trillion in 2027.
  • Jason Calacanis argues that Anthropic's culture is shaped by high 'P(doom)' employees who believe they are protecting society from AI risk.
Also from this episode: (3)

AI & Tech (2)

  • Naveen Ralph argues that scaling AI's biggest hurdle will be energy consumption, requiring orders of magnitude cost reductions per token.
  • Naveen Ralph posits that AI will automate utilitarian economic value creation, shifting the economy toward human-centric experiences and connection.

Business (1)

  • Trey Halterman says Tener moves patients through the US healthcare system, focusing on specialist referrals and prior authorizations.
#Agents#Models#Health#AI Infrastructure#Reasoning

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