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Peruvian Bull warns bond crisis masks AI gamble

Wednesday, May 20, 2026 · from 3 podcasts, 4 episodes
Bitcoin AndWhat Bitcoin DidTFTC
  • Japan’s bond defense burns $60B in weeks, signaling systemic collapse in global debt markets.
  • U.S. Treasury may backstop its own debt, turning fiscal policy into a recursive loop.
  • AI won’t save the system - trust and physical assets are the only remaining moats.

Japan’s bond market is imploding. The Bank of Japan spent $60 billion in just two weeks - matching its total outlay from May to June 2024 - to defend the yen, with minimal effect. Each intervention now retraces within days. The currency is trapped in a feedback loop: a weaker yen spikes dollar-denominated energy costs, forcing more yen sales to buy oil, further devaluing the currency.

On TFTC, Peruvian Bull laid out the full rot. Japan, the world’s largest creditor and holder of $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, is running out of bullets. With a debt-to-GDP ratio at 260% and zombie corporations propped up by cheap credit, rate hikes are impossible. The interventions are pebbles thrown at a forest fire.

"The Treasury may start lending its own cash against its own debt. It’s the snake eating its own tail."

- Marty Bent, TFTC

The U.S. is following the same script. Foreign buyers now fund only 14% of new Treasury issuance, down from 70% between 2008 and 2015. Interest payments have ballooned to $1.27 trillion annually - more than double since 2019 - and are on track to become the largest federal expense. The Fed no longer leads; it follows the bond market’s lead.

Peruvian Bull argues stablecoins won’t save the system. Even $4 trillion in projected demand is a rounding error against a $70 trillion Treasury market. Instead, the state will force monetization through backdoors: adjusting bank capital rules, pressuring money market funds, or mandating CBDC-like instruments. The goal is stealth QE - funding deficits without expanding central bank balance sheets.

"When the U.S. can freeze a stablecoin, adversarial states have only one exit: Bitcoin."

- Marty Bent, TFTC

That exit is already in motion. Iran’s IRGC is reportedly demanding Bitcoin payments for its 'Hormuz Safe' shipping insurance, a direct response to OFAC’s freeze of $344 million in Tether assets. Bitcoin is no longer speculative - it’s operational money for enemies. The same network that resists censorship is now insulating critical trade flows from financial warfare.

The real crisis isn’t inflation. It’s trust. AI has driven software’s marginal cost to zero, collapsing moats built on code. The new competitive edge lies in physical infrastructure and human credibility. As digital slop floods the internet, value shifts to atoms, not bits - and to assets that cannot be turned off.

#Banking#Macro#Regulation
Marty BentIRGCTetherWorldcoinBitcoinFederal ReserveIranJapan

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News

Bond Market Circus' Dumpster Fire | Bitcoin News • May 19

  • David Bennett reports the White House is preparing a formal announcement on a US strategic Bitcoin reserve, following Executive Director Patrick Witt's statement that a major legal hurdle has been cleared.
  • The American Reserves Modernization Act, proposed by Rep. Nick Begich, would authorize the US Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 BTC annually for five years, with holdings locked for a minimum of 20 years.
  • David Bennett predicts the imminent White House announcement will focus on consolidating and regulating existing government Bitcoin holdings, rather than outlining plans for new Bitcoin purchases.
  • Swan Bitcoin faces a nearly $1 billion lawsuit from PCT Litigation Trust, which alleges Swan used insider information from a shared executive to transfer approximately $917 million in Bitcoin and other assets from Prime Trust before its 2023 bankruptcy.
  • The lawsuit claims Swan circumvented a 90-day preference period by transferring assets, including $22.4 million in cash and $5 million in stablecoins, based on non-public information obtained through a Prime Trust executive also compensated by Swan.
  • David Bennett highlights that a crucial aspect of the lawsuit will be proving the content of encrypted communications between Swan CEO Corey Klipstein and the Prime Trust executive, which allegedly occurred before meetings with Nevada regulators on May 25, 2023.
  • The SEC is reportedly preparing an "innovation exemption" framework to allow trading platforms to offer tokenized stocks under lighter regulation, potentially enabling 24/7 trading and faster settlement for the $126 trillion global equity market.
  • Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party approved a "Next Generation AI and On Chain Finance Concept" to build a national financial system leveraging AI and blockchain, supporting tokenized deposits in JPY stablecoins and 24/7 "agentic commerce."
  • David Bennett reports Japan's government plans to issue new debt for an extra budget, aiming to mitigate economic impact from Middle East conflict-driven oil price surges, despite already worsening finances and soaring bond yields.
  • Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 2.8%, its highest since October, and the 30-year yield hit a record high, as markets react negatively to plans for increased debt issuance.
  • David Bennett reports Brent North Sea oil is down one point and WTI crude stands at $108.60 a barrel, with natural gas up 1.72% to $3.07, while metals like gold and silver show declines of one point and over 3% respectively.
  • Bitcoin's price is $76,740 with a $1.54 trillion market cap, and David Bennett notes its surprising resilience despite "carnage" in bond markets, equating one Bitcoin to 17 ounces of gold.
  • AI Financial, a World Liberty Financial treasury company, warns it may not survive the year due to recurring operating losses and a $5.5 million working capital deficit, despite holding a $706 million WLFI token treasury that is illiquid.
  • David Bennett highlights ethical concerns regarding AI Financial's $15 million loan from related party World Liberty Financial, with shared executives, noting the arrangement could be scrutinized by politicians like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
  • US lawmakers are proposing new legislation, including the "Death Bets Act" by Senator Adam Schiff, to combat growing insider trading concerns on decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket, especially related to military and political events.
Also from this episode: (9)

Protocol (3)

  • Patrick Witt cited a breach where John Dagita allegedly stole $46 million in cryptocurrency from the US Marshal Service custody in late 2025, emphasizing the urgency for the reserve's security mandate.
  • David Bennett explains that Michael Saylor employs automated, small-lot Bitcoin purchases to avoid significant market impact and prevent price increases that larger, visible orders would trigger.
  • David Bennett mentions that crypto ETFs collectively experienced approximately $1 billion in losses over the past week, indicating a trend of investors selling out of these tokenized products.

Business (1)

  • Major financial institutions like DTCC, NASDAQ, and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE parent) are actively developing or launching initiatives for tokenized assets and blockchain-based shares to modernize securities markets.

AI & Tech (2)

  • David Bennett expresses concern that increased AI automation in finance and other sectors will eliminate many white-collar jobs, potentially disrupting the economic cycle where people earn money to buy products, leading to societal collapse.
  • Elon Musk lost his $150 billion AI lawsuit against OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman, and co-founder Greg Brockman, as a California jury found he waited too long to file claims, thereby failing to cripple the ChatGPT maker.

Markets (2)

  • Eric Balchunas reported that numerous "baby 2x ETFs" for shitcoins, including Lambo and Rekt, closed in April within a year of launch due to lack of investor interest, yet dozens more continue to launch monthly.
  • Blockchain data platform Bubble Maps identified nine Polymarket wallets that collectively earned $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on bets tied to US military operations, raising concerns about insider trading.

BTC Markets (1)

  • TD Cowen raised its price target for MicroStrategy to $400 from $395, maintaining a "buy" rating, citing the company's accelerated Bitcoin accumulation and successful "accretive deleveraging" post-treasury activity.
#Adoption#Nation-State#Macro#Banking
What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Danny Knowles

Bitcoin’s Bull Market Is Back | Checkmate • May 19

  • Bitcoin ETF cumulative flows are only 5% below their all-time high despite the bear market, indicating strong holder conviction. Their net buying is now comparable to MicroStrategy's.
  • Global bond yields rising above 5% signals a loss of trust in sovereign debt. Checkmate argues this represents the 'bedrock' of the financial system degrading, forcing a search for assets outside it.
  • The Australian government's proposed tax reform removes the 50% capital gains discount for assets held over a year, replacing it with CPI indexation. Checkmate calculates this effectively doubles the tax burden for young asset savers.
Also from this episode: (10)

BTC Markets (7)

  • Checkmate assesses an 80% probability the Bitcoin bear market bottomed in February. He frames this as the 'price pain capitulation' event, marked by widespread fear and selling from seasoned holders.
  • He outlines key Bitcoin price levels to confirm a bull market. Breaking $78K is the first line; $85K is the 'centroid' of major cost bases; $95K is the final technical level where bears capitulate.
  • Checkmate's mean reversion model indicated Bitcoin at 60K was a Q10 event, meaning only 10% of historical trading days saw lower valuations relative to trend.
  • Weekly Bitcoin RSI hit 26 at the lows, its lowest level ever. Checkmate notes every instance of RSI below 30 has marked a cycle bottom, a signal institutional traders monitor.
  • The 'True Market Mean' model, filtering out lost and inactive coins, places the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors at $78K, aligning with levels from Saylor, ETF inflows, and mining costs.
  • Checkmate identifies three Bitcoin-specific systemic risks: a catastrophic Coinbase custody hack, a quantum computing breakthrough, and MicroStrategy's equity hitting zero due to its capital stack at lower BTC prices.
  • He argues the Australian policy is a 'trial balloon' for global austerity measures, testing public tolerance for wealth confiscation disguised as housing affordability policy. The median house price there is A$1 million against a median salary of A$74,000.

Adoption (2)

  • He advocates a savings portfolio of both gold and Bitcoin based on duration needs. Gold is for shorter-term, lower-volatility goals like a house deposit; Bitcoin is for long-term, high-growth goals like education fees.
  • Checkmate urges Australians to politically push back via the Australian Bitcoin Industry Body's template letters, viewing the policy as a 20-30% stealth devaluation of savers' capital and a move towards feudalism.

Protocol (1)

  • Iran's move to accept Bitcoin for oil payments after Tether sanctions is a pivotal use case. Checkmate traces this shift to the foundational 2022 freezing of Russian reserves, which began a global reassessment of savings assets.
#BTC Markets#ETFs#Macro#Fed
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

Ten31 Timestamp: Mr. Warsh, I Don't Feel So Good • May 18

  • Marty Bent calls the recent meeting between the US President, American CEOs, and China's Xi Jinping a 'holding pattern,' with unclear concrete accomplishments despite discussion of Taiwan and opening Chinese markets.
  • The 30-year US Treasury auction hit a high yield over 5%, a level not seen since August 2007, as global bond markets showed signs of deterioration.
  • The US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee floated a plan for the Treasury to lend its own cash into the repo market using Treasury collateral, a novel and potentially inflationary tool to manage market plumbing.
  • Bent suggests officials like Kevin Warsh advocate for an AI-driven productivity boom to create disinflation, providing cover for the Fed to cut rates despite current inflation.
  • Marty Bent interprets Japan's apparent loss of control over its bond market and warnings of hyperinflation as a cautionary tale for other heavily indebted nations running similar policies.
  • Supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz situation are now affecting motor oil, with a meme circulating about a potential 40% supply reduction for US suppliers by mid-summer, alongside impacts on sulfur and fertilizers.
Also from this episode: (4)

Inflation (1)

  • Both CPI and PPI inflation prints came in hotter than expected, with PPI at 6% even excluding food and energy, increasing market expectations of further Fed rate hikes.

Politics (1)

  • Marty Bent argues the dominant policy narrative will prioritize the AI race and funding government deficits over fighting inflation, making aggressive rate hikes politically and economically untenable.

Protocol (2)

  • Reports indicate Iran's IRGC is demanding payments in Bitcoin for a new 'Hormuz Safe' shipping insurance product, a move seen as a direct response to OFAC's ability to freeze dollar-based stablecoins.
  • Bent views Iran's potential Bitcoin adoption for Strait of Hormuz tolls as a major validation of Bitcoin's value proposition as 'money for enemies' and a high-signal geopolitical headline for Bitcoin.
#Fed#Macro#AI Infrastructure#Nation-State

#747: Stablecoins Won’t Save the Treasury Market with Peruvian Bull • May 18

  • Peruvian Bull argues Japan is the bellwether for the endgame of global central banking, illustrating the consequences of fiscal profligacy and debt overhang.
  • Japan’s debt-to-GDP exceeds 260%, private debt-to-GDP is over 120%, and roughly 30% of Nikkei companies are zombies reliant on ultra-low interest rates.
  • Prime Minister Sanai Takeichi’s populist reforms include increased spending, military budget hikes, and a cut to the 8% consumption tax, which risks losing 20-30 trillion yen in government revenue annually.
  • Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries as of March 2026, and Japanese life insurers and pension funds face roughly $8 trillion in unrealized losses on ultra-long-end JGBs.
  • Peruvian Bull says U.S. Treasury bonds are losing reserve asset status globally, with central bank gold holdings surpassing Treasury holdings for the first time in 27 years in August 2025.
  • Foreigners bought 70% of new U.S. Treasury issuance from 2008-2015 but only 14% from 2015-2021, shifting the marginal funding burden to domestic institutions.
  • Peruvian Bull notes that China has financialized gold over the last 70 years, with the PBOC buying roughly 300 tons officially per year and likely another 300 tons covertly, accumulating over 5,000 tons unofficially.
  • CME experienced multiple outages during gold and silver price spikes in late 2023 and January 2026, with Peruvian Bull suspecting manipulation to prevent bullion banks from failing on paper shorts.
  • Peruvian Bull sees Bitcoin as the inevitable scarce asset in an inflationary world driven by supply chain reshuffling, AI’s physical demands, and sovereign debt crises.
Also from this episode: (6)

Politics (1)

  • Japanese interventions in late April and early May cost $60 billion, matching their total spend over two months in May and June 2024. Bank of America analysis previously suggested each trillion yen spent should move dollar-yen down by one, but recent interventions have been ineffective.

Energy (1)

  • Japan imports 87% of its primary energy, 93% of its crude oil, and over 80% of its LNG, making its currency highly sensitive to dollar-denominated energy prices.

Business (2)

  • U.S. interest expense on public debt hit $1.27 trillion over the last 12 months, more than doubling since 2019 and poised to become the largest federal budget line item.
  • Peruvian Bull describes a debt paradox where lowering rates via QE causes inflation that increases fiscal spending, while hiking rates increases interest expense - the only escape is massive fiscal austerity, which is politically impossible.

AI & Tech (2)

  • AI is accelerating white-collar job displacement, with Peruvian Bull forecasting a structural shift back to manufacturing jobs, which are harder for AI to replace.
  • Peruvian Bull argues AI lowers software’s marginal cost toward zero but also lowers entrepreneurial moats, making trust, brand, and IRL community the last durable competitive advantages.
#Macro#Banking#Energy#AI Infrastructure#BTC Markets

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