The Frontier

Michael Sullivan's Bitcoin sentiment analysis shows plebs (newer entrants) are experiencing their longest period of anger since 2025, with conviction levels collapsing. In contrast, OG Bitcoiners (10+ years) are more convicted and less angry, showing a major divergence in market outlook.

Sullivan built his analysis by individually tracking real Bitcoiners on X over time, avoiding aggregated data polluted by bots and engagement bait. He cohorts users by tenure to see how language and conviction evolve.

Mentions of AI within the Bitcoin community have grown consistently since 2024, drawing mindshare away from Bitcoin. Sullivan notes this confirms the narrative that AI is a competing focus for the tech-savvy Bitcoin cohort.

Sullivan argues humans are story-driven, and market sentiment shifts when narratives disintegrate. The conviction metric drops when a believer's core story about Bitcoin is proven wrong, creating volatility.

The 'paper Bitcoin' narrative peaked alongside high anger levels in summer 2025, as people sought villains to blame for poor price action. Sullivan notes narratives often arise from emotion, not truth.

Marty Bent observes that Bitcoiners who entered in 2021 at $60k may feel frustrated five years later at $63k, explaining some pleb anger. He stresses the value of DCA versus lump-sum timing.

Sullivan found BIP 110 proponents are among the angriest and least convicted cohorts. Bitcoin capitalists, however, remain highly convicted despite current market conditions.

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve narrative saw high engagement during the late 2024 euphoria but near-zero discussion recently despite ongoing political progress, showing how sentiment drowns out positive news.

Marty Bent argues X's algorithm siloes users into echo chambers, amplifying negative content after engagement and breaking down the communal, chronological feed that characterized early Bitcoin Twitter.

Sullivan views extreme anger as a buy signal, arguing it's precisely when people should revisit Bitcoin's fundamentals and stack sats. He is personally buying aggressively during this sentiment low.

Anthropic's blog post claims Claude now writes 80% of its own code for new models, accelerating toward recursive self-improvement and potential AGI.

Anthropic developers Boris and Peter Steinberger report they no longer prompt AI agents directly, instead setting up loops where agents prompt each other autonomously.

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have both proposed the federal government taking a stake in leading AI labs to capture public benefits from AI growth.

Marty Bent argues AI dividend funds should be structured locally between companies and counties, not federally, citing federal inefficiency in capital allocation.

Bent suggests frontier AI labs like OpenAI could become too-big-to-fail national security assets, requiring federal backstops that strain public finances.

Open source AI models from China are now close enough to frontier models that companies weigh using them due to a 90% cost advantage.

The CEO of Payments Canada stated 80% of Canadian cross-border payments route through U.S. correspondent banks, framing payment rails as weapons of economic statecraft.

US manufacturing PMI has been above 50 for five months, accelerating in May, signaling industrial expansion and potential inflation pressures.

Decode's analysis shows Bitcoin rallies for 20 months after the copper-to-gold ratio reclaims its prior low, projecting a potential peak by end-2027.

Michael Howell's liquidity thesis warns US reindustrialization may draw capital from financial assets into physical build-out, potentially contracting market liquidity.

Bitcoin's supply-in-loss crossing supply-in-profit historically marks bear market bottoms, a pattern Bent recognizes from 13 years of experience.

Charles Schwab launched 24/7 Bitcoin futures trading on Thinkorswim, and Better partnered with Coinbase to issue the first crypto-backed conventional mortgage via Fannie Mae.

Treasury Secretary Bessent affirmed the strategic Bitcoin reserve initiative is moving forward, stating economic security is national security.

Matt Dines' Mindprint Hash podcast offers heterodox analysis of government Bitcoin interaction, which Bent recommends for deeper insight.

James Check analyzes the current Bitcoin price drop as a 'time pain' capitulation, distinct from the 'price pain' event in February. He notes this sentiment feels as dire as the 2015 bear market.

On-chain data shows realized profit locked in is as low as it was after the FTX collapse, despite the price being four times higher. Long-term holders are inactive, while recent buyers are locking in losses approaching $1 billion daily.

James Check views MicroStrategy's sale of 32 Bitcoin as a signal to creditors, not a distressed liquidation. He argues it de-risks the market by providing clarity, though it 'slays the sacred cow' of never selling Bitcoin.

Check's probabilistic model places Bitcoin's bottoming zone between the true market mean at $78k and the realized price at $55k. He defines 'deep value' as below $70k (the Q20 level) and advises dollar-cost averaging over trying to time the bottom.

Both hosts see AI as a liquidity vacuum drawing capital from Bitcoin and other assets. Check compares it to the .com bubble, noting the massive private sector stimulus for data centers and hardware will eventually peak, potentially leaving Bitcoin as an underowned asset.

James Check argues the broader crypto ecosystem is facing an 'extinction-level event.' He says product-market fit has narrowed to perpetual swaps and stablecoins, with natural buyers absent for most tokens, unlike Bitcoin.