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St Onge says Gen Z faces Depression-era housing crisis

Thursday, June 4, 2026 · from 2 podcasts
  • Gen Z faces mortgage costs requiring $112k salary but earns a median $45k.
  • The HR industry drains $3 trillion annually while harming corporate performance.
  • The S&P 500 shrugs off oil shocks because tech now comprises half the index.

Gen Z is facing the worst housing affordability crisis since the Great Depression. On the Peter St Onge Podcast, economist Peter St Onge laid out the stark math: the salary needed to qualify for a mortgage has ballooned to $112,000, while the median income for the generation is only $45,000. The result is a structural wall that has pushed one-third of young adults back into their parents' homes and driven fertility rates to a record low of 1.7 children per woman.

The fallout extends beyond homeownership. St Onge argues that the "college wage premium" has halved since 1960, leaving graduates to carry $40,000 in debt into entry-level jobs that AI is automating.

"Eighty-one percent of Gen Z rates the economy as bad or terrible."

- Peter St Onge, Peter St Onge Podcast

Meanwhile, corporate America is burdened by its own inefficiency. St Onge described the human resources industry as an $88 billion "tapeworm," citing research that shows it contributes to $3 trillion in lost annual output and a one-third drop in productivity. He pointed to Silicon Valley firms like Bolt firing their entire HR departments as a leading indicator, arguing such administrative layers prioritize ideological compliance over performance.

This corporate bloat compounds the generational squeeze, siphoning an estimated $10,000 in lost wages from every American worker. The market, however, has grown indifferent to another traditional pressure point: geopolitics. Despite predictions of $240 oil from the Iran conflict, the S&P 500 is up 8.5% since the war began. St Onge attributes this to a fundamental shift - where tech was 5% of the index in the 1970s, it is now 50%, making the market less sensitive to oil shocks and physical supply chains.

The generational wealth gap isn't just a personal finance issue; it's a threat to social stability. Survival, St Onge argues, will require Gen Z to unlearn the "learned helplessness" of traditional education and reskill for the demands of an AI-dominated, infrastructure-heavy economy.

"Studies show diversity training reduces trust and can lower the share of women and minorities in management."

- Peter St Onge, Peter St Onge Podcast

Source Intelligence

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This Startup Fused Human Brain Cells with Silicon Chips | E2295Jun 1

Also from this episode: (8)

AI Infrastructure (3)

  • Cortical Labs has deployed 120 CL1 biological computing units across six server racks in Melbourne, calling it the world's first biological data center.
  • The CL1 unit consumes about 30 watts of power, requires nutrient feeding, and uses filtration cartridges that need replacement every four to six months.
  • Cortical Labs is building a second data center in Singapore with Day One Data Centers, planning to deploy up to 1,000 units.

Biology (1)

  • The CL1 unit houses 200,000 to 2 million neurons, compared to approximately 100 billion in a human brain.

Models (1)

  • Cortical Labs' biological neurons demonstrated 5,000 times greater sample efficiency than GPU-based systems in reinforcement learning tasks.

Startups (2)

  • The company's first production run of 30 CL1 units sold out at a price of approximately $35,000 each, generating roughly $1 million in revenue.
  • Michael notes manufacturing components in the US costs roughly 2x more than in China for Pike Aerial, but owning the design mitigates cost.

Safety (1)

  • Han states the company has drawn an ethical red line at not creating conscious systems, as they have the capacity to suffer.

Ep 175 Weekly Roundup: Gen Z Can’t Afford Instant RamenJun 1

  • A Generation Lab survey found 81% of Americans aged 18-34 rate the economy as bad or terrible, matching the worst sentiment levels from the 2008 crisis and 1970s stagflation.
  • Peter St Onge argues wages have seen zero growth under President Biden while prices jumped 25-30%. The median mortgage payment doubled to nearly $2,200 per month under the combined pressure of inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes.
  • Redfin data shows a $112,000 salary is now required to qualify for a median mortgage, far exceeding the Gen Z median income of $45,000. Only one in five Gen Z individuals can afford a house at prime home-buying age.
  • One in three Gen Z adults live with their parents, a rate comparable to the Great Depression. The average first-time home buyer is now over 40, contributing to the lowest fertility rate in US history at 1.7 children per woman.
  • The average Gen Z college graduate carries over $40,000 in debt, doubling with a master's degree. The college wage premium has fallen by half since 1960, and a majority of recent grads work in jobs that do not require a degree.
  • Peter St Onge cites research showing corporate HR is an $88 billion industry that contributes to $3 trillion in lost output and a one-third drop in productivity. Studies show diversity training reduces trust and can lower the share of women and minorities in management.
  • Jeff Bezos endorsed populist ideas, arguing to eliminate all taxes for those earning under $75,000 - a policy he claims would cost just 3% of federal revenue. He criticized government overspending and crony capitalism, framing support for President Trump as being 'on the side of America.'
  • Despite initial Wall Street fears of a 1970s-style stagflation from the Iran conflict, the S&P 500 has risen 8.5% since the war began. Peter St Onge attributes this to oil supply resilience from US drilling and the tech sector’s dominance, which is less sensitive to oil prices.
  • Peter St Onge claims the Federal Reserve's actions, not geopolitics, now drive market outcomes. Recession odds on prediction markets like Kalshi fell from 22% to 17% after the Iran war started.
Also from this episode: (2)

Immigration (2)

  • European IFOP polling shows 70% of French voters believe migrants are 'replacing' the French populace, with 90% viewing this negatively. Similar sentiment exists in Britain (70%), Spain (80%), and Germany (81%).
  • Spain's left-wing government passed a mass amnesty for up to 1.5 million illegal migrants, which Peter St Onge equates to 12 million in US population terms. He states non-native voters now comprise about 20-30% of the electorate in several Western European nations.