The Frontier

Peter St Onge reports a maritime intelligence company, Winward, identifies 171 oil tankers, including 28 VLCCs, en route to the US from the Persian Gulf, carrying 200 million barrels of crude oil. This volume is six times more than normal and nearly two months of US supply.

Peter St Onge notes the US could reactivate 5,000 idle "drilled but uncompleted" wells, which is ten times the number of active wells. US oil exports have already increased by one-third since the war began, from 3.9 million to 5.2 million barrels daily.

Peter St Onge describes dire energy situations in Europe and Asia, with countries closing universities and factories, while Europe faces potential jet fuel shortages in six weeks. Stock markets, represented by the S&P, are higher than before the war, but oil markets show caution, with Brent futures high through 2027.

New York Mayor Zoron Mandani proposes five government grocery stores at a cost of $70 million over three years, with the first East Harlem store estimated at $30 million. Peter St Onge argues this is four times the cost and eight times the delay of private alternatives.

Peter St Onge recounts Kansas City's failed 2018 experiment with a government grocery store, which involved $17 million to buy and $7 million to renovate a facility. It failed, requiring another $29 million, still losing nearly $1 million annually before closing, with Peter St Onge noting a typical store costs $3 million.

Peter St Onge points out that typical American grocery stores operate on a 1.6% profit margin, making them vulnerable to mismanagement. He notes New York City is not a food desert, having over 1,000 small groceries, and Kalshi predicts NYC will lose 80,000 high-income residents in 18 months.

Peter St Onge reports the Irish government recently survived a no-confidence vote, supported by 56% of voters, following protests sparked by a 20% rise in diesel prices. He states Dublin rents consume half of paychecks, double the US rate, largely due to mass migration, making Dublin nearly one-third foreign-born.

Peter St Onge highlights that a recent study found 1.3 million people in Ireland desire a house, a number coincidently matching the foreign-born population. At current construction rates, satisfying this demand would take approximately 40 years.

Peter St Onge notes that UK welfare payments now exceed income tax receipts for the first time, partly due to rising migrant payments. He also cites a Bundesbank report warning of a German "debt spiral," with federal debt increasing by nearly a trillion dollars amidst 0.3% economic growth.

Peter St Onge states that a Dutch study estimates mass migration costs Europe $500 billion in US GDP terms, or $10 trillion over 20 years. He reports German polls show the populist AfD as the largest party, and Kalshi indicates Britain's Reform party has a 41% chance of forming the next government.

Peter St Onge cites an Institute for Family Studies report stating liberal men have fewer than 0.5 children, compared to conservative men with 2.14, and liberal women have 0.8 children versus conservative women with 1.7. This gap has reportedly widened significantly since the 1980s.

Peter St Onge references an NBC News poll showing Gen Z Trump voters prioritize having children, while Gen Z Kamala voters rank marriage and kids near last in their success definition. He argues public schools convert students to liberal views at a 4-to-1 ratio, with universities adding another 10 points.

Peter St Onge states at least ten blue states, including California and New York, are exploring exit or wealth taxes. California proposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of 200 billionaires, plus a 1.5% annual tax, hitting unrealized gains and potentially reducing state revenue by $3 billion.

Peter St Onge argues California's wealth tax could lead to companies employing 1 to 2 million Californians leaving, resulting in $10 billion in lost revenue. He reports an estimated $700 billion in assets, equivalent to Switzerland's GDP, has already fled the state due to tax policies.

Peter St Onge notes New York is proposing a 9% exit tax and a 4% annual wealth tax on second homes, while Washington and Michigan have hiked their top tax rates to nearly 10%. New York City's top rate is already 11%, with plans to raise it to 17%.

Peter St Onge promotes Monetary Metals as a way to earn up to 4% yield on gold, paid in additional ounces, while retaining ownership of real allocated physical gold with no storage costs outside the banking system.

Peter St Onge recommends CoinKite hardware wallets for securing Bitcoin offline. He notes their devices are made in Canada by Bitcoiners active since 2012, including the Block Clock.

Peter St Onge endorses Abundant Minds for simple Bitcoin mining, allowing investors to own machines and deduct expenses, calling it a "401k for Bitcoin mining." The company provides turnkey hosting in Oregon with guaranteed uptime.

Peter St Onge recommends The Bitcoin Way for achieving proper Bitcoin self-custody, covering privacy, inheritance, and running a personal node. The service guides users step-by-step without ever handling their Bitcoin directly.