Saylor swaps perpetual debt for Bitcoin credit stack

Protocol (6)

• Michael Saylor outlines a capital goal: attract 5-10% of all global credit, currently $300 trillion, to flow into Bitcoin-backed credit instruments ($15-30 trillion), and capture 5-30% of global money markets.
• Saylor defines digital money as zero-volatility, fiat-pegged instruments that pay yield, built to bridge fiat capital into the Bitcoin ecosystem, distinguishing it from digital credit.
• Bitcoin's volatility contrasts with stability in digital credit; during Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from its high, instruments like SEDA and STRX posted positive total returns.
• Bitcoin dominance in the crypto market has risen from 41% during the FTX era (2021) to approximately 69%, driven by a collapse in confidence in Ethereum and competing tokens.
• Saylor's strategy for MicroStrategy involves raising equity capital at a premium to Bitcoin's price to buy Bitcoin, banking a gain; they raised $21 billion of equity at a 200% premium in 2024.
• Saylor states that Satoshi is likely the largest Bitcoin holder, possessing over a million Bitcoin across multiple wallets.

Markets (1)

• MicroStrategy's credit instruments (STRC) and preferred equity are structured as perpetual capital with optionality favoring the issuer, lowering the real cost of capital to approximately 8.5%.

BTC Markets (4)

• Saylor posits that MicroStrategy can pay dividends perpetually if Bitcoin appreciates at least 3% annually, and the equity outperforms Bitcoin if it appreciates more than the company's cost of capital (~10%).
• Matt observes that despite the bear market with Bitcoin at its 200-week moving average, MicroStrategy's companies are buying Bitcoin (200 Bitcoin in one week), raising cash, and show no stress.
• Saylor and Matt argue digital credit products compete with money market funds and yield-bearing stablecoins, not Bitcoin itself, expanding the network by attracting new capital pools.
• Saylor explains that equity issuance for cash or Bitcoin is accretive if done above net asset value, arguing dilution depends on the return of the asset acquired versus the existing business.

Protocol (3)

• David Bennett observes a pattern of market whipsawing from Middle East conflict news, where claims of an imminent Iran peace deal repeatedly trigger oil price drops and stock market rebounds.
• The Second Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Sam Bankman-Fried's appeal for a new trial, upholding his conviction and 25-year sentence for fraud. His remaining appeal options include a rehearing request and a likely petition to the Supreme Court.
• BitGo launched Lightning Earn, a product allowing institutions to earn Bitcoin-denominated routing fees by providing liquidity on the Lightning Network via an integration with Amboss Technologies' Rails platform.

Regulation (2)

• Former CFTC and SEC Chair Gary Gensler filed an amicus brief siding with states against the CFTC's claim of exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets like Kalshi. He argues the Dodd-Frank Act was not written to authorize or preempt state sports betting laws.
• Polish President Andrzej Duda vetoed a domestic crypto bill implementing the EU's MiCA framework for the third time, leaving Poland as the only EU member without a MiCA implementation days before the July 1 licensing deadline.

AI & Tech (1)

• Microsoft President Brad Smith acknowledged graduating students are booing AI mentions at commencements due to job market fears. A Federal Reserve study found U.S. programming job growth dropped ~50% after ChatGPT's launch, with an estimated 500,000 developer jobs never materializing.

Politics (1)

• Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb claims the DOJ threatened President Trump in his first term's final hours, warning it would 'go after him' if he commuted Ross Ulbricht's sentence, leading Trump to withdraw the commutation. Ulbricht received a full pardon in January 2025.

BTC Markets (3)

• Fold Holdings sold $45M in Bitcoin at an average price of ~$71,000 to retire $20M in debt and fund growth. The company retains a treasury of roughly 1,500 Bitcoin worth about $95M and is now debt-free on the secured side.
• Fold's 2025 revenue reached $31.8M, a 34% year-over-year increase, driven by transaction volume of nearly $960M. Since 2019, the company has processed over $2B in total transactions.
• Bitcoin price was $61,870 with a market cap of $1.24 trillion. The network hash rate is 862 exahashes per second, and there are 20,040,807.4 Bitcoin in circulation.

Protocol (2)

• Botanics, a Bitcoin scaling network, is shutting down after four years, citing weak demand for Bitcoin DeFi. The team says most users treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than something for frequent on-chain applications.
• Michael Saylor and critic Matthew Crater debated whether MicroStrategy's latest capital raise was dilutive. Saylor argues it was accretive when including new cash reserves, while Crater points to a decline in the firm's 'BTC yield' metric.

Startups (1)

• SpaceX's upcoming IPO is oversubscribed by 4x, attracting over $250B in demand for a $75B raise and valuing the company at $1.8T. Some analysts argue this 'IPO tax' is sucking liquidity from crypto and tech stocks.

Regulation (2)

• Prediction market CalShi is rolling out new compliance measures, including mandatory employment disclosure for traders in high-risk markets and a risk-scoring framework, to address insider trading concerns.
• The CFTC proposed new rules for prediction markets, aiming to allow sports betting but limit contracts tied to terrorism, assassinations, and war. The 267-page proposal seeks to delineate permitted bets under federal law.

Protocol (10)

• Michael Saylor argues Bitcoin needs disciplined expansion through banks, corporate treasuries, credit markets, and capital markets rather than relying solely on spot ETF inflows.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted weekly net outflows of $1.4B, $1.26B, and $1B in the last three weeks of May, with the current week's outflows at $1.4B.
• MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, its first sale since 2022.
• Analyst Lacey Zhang said Bitcoin may be closer to clearing its leverage episode after an $1.8B liquidation wave and deeply negative funding rates.
• Nikolai Sondergaard of Nansen said exchange flow data suggests participants are using Bitcoin's bounce to reduce exposure, not add positions.
• The full text of the American Reserve Modernization Act (HR 8957) mandates a 20-year lockup for Bitcoin deposited into a federal strategic reserve, with sales capped at 10% every two years afterward.
• Maritime service platform Hormuz SAFE in Iran claims to accept Bitcoin and Lightning payments for services like marine insurance and emergency response.
• A Chinese court sentenced a man to 10 years and 9 months in prison for stealing 107 Bitcoin, ruling that Bitcoin meets China's legal definition of property.
• Bitcoin's hash rate fell to 854 exahashes per second as price declines forced some miners offline.
• Bitcoin price fell to $59,099, marking a more than 50% decline from its all-time high near $126,000.

Protocol (2)

• David Hoffman argues Ethereum's L2 scaling success dilutes ETH's value, as liquidity fragments to Optimism and Arbitrum instead of accruing to the base layer.
• ETH is caught in a utility-value trap. Ryan Sean Adams says its bull case now rests on institutional ETF flows, not on-chain burning mechanics.

Protocol (7)

• Simple Steve's data analysis shows two distinct Bitcoin usage communities. A data/inscription community conducts transactions averaging 50 cents with time preference under 10 minutes, while a monetary community spends $50-$100 on average and holds coins for up to a year.
• Guy Swan cites a story where Claude AI recovered a Bitcoin wallet locked for 11 years. The user fed his entire college computer files into Claude, found a deleted wallet file, and cracked the password 'lol420.[ __ ] the police.!*:)'.
• Bitcoin Mechanic argues most Bitcoin mining operates at a loss as an infrastructure cost, not a for-profit enterprise. He cites public mining company losses and irrational BitAxe purchases as evidence miners are willing to subsidize security.
• Guy Swan discussed MicroStrategy's financial position, noting it is trading below its Bitcoin-adjusted Net Asset Value. He says if calculated using a proper numerator, the MNAV ratio is around 0.88, not the 0.98 Saylor presents.
• Bitcoin Mechanic notes public miners like Mara and Riot operate at significant losses. American Bitcoin Corp reported a cost of $90,000 to mine one Bitcoin when liabilities are included, despite Bitcoin trading near $70,000.
• The group discussed Greg Maxwell's opposition to BIP 110, with Bitcoin Mechanic stating Maxwell uses flawed arguments like spam filters ruining fee estimation. Mechanic claims Maxwell refuses to retract points proven wrong, showing a lack of intellectual rigor.
• Jeffrey offered a steelman argument for opponents of restricting taproot: the 'OP_IF' bug enabling inscriptions is a minor mistake. Keeping it provides on-chain activity, and the spam may be naturally priced out by fees, making a corrective fork not worth the effort.

Mining (1)

• Ocean Pool has grown to become a top-eight Bitcoin mining pool by hash rate. Bitcoin Mechanic expects significant new BIP 110 hash rate to join Ocean soon, fueling momentum for the soft fork.

BTC Markets (1)

• The hosts critique financial news coverage of Bitcoin ETFs, noting reports of 'huge inflows' or 'record outflows' merely describe past price action. Guy Swan likens this to steering a car by looking out the back window.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

• Guy Swan discusses the societal impact of technology, arguing decentralized peer-to-peer systems like Bitcoin and the early internet are the only forces that sustainably undermine centralized authority by removing points of informational control.

Startups (1)

• The group observes that successful movements often hinge on a single trusted leader to maintain focus, citing examples like Linux and the co-option of movements like Turning Point USA after its founder stepped back.

Protocol (4)

• Mallers dismisses altcoins as regulatory and informational arbitrages, citing the Zcash inflation bug as evidence of their inherent risk versus Bitcoin's secure, simple design.
• MicroStrategy holds about 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, with 845,000 BTC valued at $53.4 billion against a debt and preferred equity stack of $22 billion.
• Strike is launching volatility-proof Bitcoin-backed loans with no liquidation clause, funded by higher interest rates that pay for hedging instruments.
• Strike is developing interest-bearing cash accounts paid in Bitcoin and sub-accounts for family or savings, with plans to launch later this year.

Markets (1)

• Mallers asserts Stretch perpetual preferreds are not cash equivalents because they lack maturity, trade on an open market, and carry significant price risk.