The Frontier

Jack Mallers argues Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish rhetoric is a bluff. He asserts raising rates would increase inflation under fiscal dominance by boosting the government's interest burden, forcing further debt monetization.

Speculators hold $34.3 billion in bullish USD wagers as of June 23rd, the highest in over a year. Mallers says this reflects market belief in the Fed's hawkish stance.

Mallers points to declining wage growth and cooling inflation as evidence the Fed's narrative contradicts actual data, suggesting cuts will come later.

Meta Platforms is building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity, which Mallers sees as a kink in the AI bubble narrative indicating potential overinvestment.

OpenAI proposed giving the Trump administration a 5% stake, valued at $42.6 billion. Mallers links this to prior comments about seeking a government backstop, suggesting a need for bailouts.

Semiconductor concentration in the S&P 500 has risen from 2% to 20%. Mallers likens this to dot-com bubble concentration, suggesting AI-driven malinvestment.

Mallers identifies Bitcoin market indicators suggesting a bottom: the MVRV Z-score shows 10 months between bottoms historically, with six months passed. Pork Apollis Power Law sentiment is at 2015 bear market lows.

US spot ETFs sold 120,000 Bitcoin over two months, pushing Coinbase premium negative. Mallers argues this proves 'plebs' hold the line, not ETFs or treasury companies.

Mallers claims Bitcoin is undervalued because sellers are exhausted. Momentum carrying price lower is weakening, and supply in profit has crossed below supply in loss, signaling capitulation.

President Trump reportedly holds over $50 million of Bitcoin in cold storage according to a December 2025 filing. Mallers sees this as a bullish signal, given Trump's profit-seeking behavior.

MicroStrategy CEO Fong Li tweeted that the company is evolving from 'one-way capital issuance to active capital management'. Mallers interprets this as a shift from 'buy never sell' to 'sometimes sell'.

Mallers critiques the MicroStrategy thesis, questioning why one would own MSTR instead of Bitcoin directly given its capital stack complexity and potential need to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations.

Strike launched volatility-proof Bitcoin-backed loans, eliminating liquidation risk via hedging. The company also rolled out account switching and interest on cash features, targeting 4-6% rates.

Strike secured its MiCA license, expanding services to Italy and Spain. Mallers emphasizes a focus on global licensing and building requested features rather than chasing speculative ideas.