Iran's funeral spectacle fails to resolve Hormuz cold war

Diplomacy (1)

• Peace talks with the US are on hold during the funeral and US anniversary. A 60-day ceasefire was meant to resolve nuclear issues, sanctions, and regional status, but Nicholas Pelham says a new era remains distant.

Society (4)

• Japan was the last G7 country to recognize joint custody after divorce, with a 2021 survey showing only one in three children had contact with the non-custodial parent. Moeka Iida says those visits were often limited to a few hours monthly.
• A new joint custody law requires divorced parents to collaborate on key decisions like schooling and relocation, putting parent-child contact on a firmer legal footing. This revises a civil code unchanged for 80 years.
• Around a quarter of Japanese marriages end in divorce, settled mostly by submitting a document to a ward office without court proceedings. Moeka Iida says this ease can lead to hot-tempered decisions on visitation and support.
• Anthropologist Alison Alexei describes Japan's traditional 'clean break' divorce model, where an ex-spouse is treated as if they died. Estranged fathers and a hunger-striking French man campaigned for change as men become more involved at home.

History (2)

• Route 66 is a 100-year-old highway from Chicago to Santa Monica, famous for its southern dip through Oklahoma before bending west. John Fasman notes its all-weather path avoided northern snow and served Dust Bowl refugees and African-American migrants.
• The highway popularized motels, service stations, and the road trip as an end in itself, with businesses using giant fiberglass statues and concrete teepees to attract travelers. It was decommissioned in the mid-1980s after interstates were built.

Business (1)

• Jennifer at Fanning 66 Outpost says business is up 50% this year with more American travelers, reversing a norm where 80-90% of visitors were international. Overseas tourists are drawn by the 'American dream' and the highway's global pop culture fame.

Energy (9)

• Rory Johnston notes oil flows out of Hormuz have impressively exceeded 20 million barrels on multiple days, with all reroutes maxed out, briefly pushing total Middle East supply to 130% of pre-war levels.
• Rory Johnston explains that the current high oil exit pace from Hormuz is sustained by drawing down over 4 million barrels a day of stranded floating crude, which can only last another week or two. Fresh loadings are lagging.
• Rory Johnston finds the rapid return of inbound ballast tankers surprising, with over eight confirmed VLCC crossings in one day and a 10-day average of 10 million barrels a day, exceeding recovery expectations.
• Rory Johnston acknowledges that earlier expert predictions of $200 crude oil due to a prolonged Hormuz closure proved wrong, primarily because China significantly cut imports and Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) were released.
• Rory Johnston identifies a spot crude oil surplus, evidenced by contango in Brent and Dubai futures, as the surge of Middle Eastern oil combines with reduced Chinese buying.
• Rory Johnston observes that crude oil is currently the weakest part of the petroleum market, while refined crack spreads for diesel and gasoline are near 2022 all-time highs. Diesel crack spreads are around $60 and gasoline $50 per barrel, compared to a norm of $20.
• Rory Johnston attributes refined product market tightness to refining bottlenecks, including hobbled Middle Eastern refineries and effective Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities. This leads to high Russian crude exports but low product exports.
• Rory Johnston believes the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, currently above 330 million barrels, could be drawn down almost entirely due to its salt cavern design. The current weekly draw pace is around 0.5 million barrels.
• Rory Johnston reports Kuwait's oil production capacity is recovering faster than anticipated, reaching 1.9 million barrels a day, or 73% of its pre-war level of 2.6 million barrels, ahead of schedule.

Markets (5)

• Rory Johnston notes a near-record accumulation of short interest in crude oil, providing downside protection for flat prices. This positioning could create a $6-10 per barrel upside if it normalizes, or $15-20 with a significant fundamental shift.
• Patrick Szna recommends a bull call spread on Valero (VLO) for August 21, 2026, buying the $270 call and selling the $300 call for a $9.25 net debit. This capitalizes on refining strength with defined risk.
• Massel Begnan reports large speculators covered nearly 150,000 S&P 500 short contracts in a week, making them the least short all year. This removes a natural cushion for market dips, especially if semiconductors enter a profit-taking cycle.
• Massel Begnan highlights an extreme short position in the British pound, with commercials at their most net long and large/small speculators at their most net short in a year, making it the most "washed out" currency.
• Massel Begnan identifies large speculators as heavily long corn futures, in the high 80s on a one-year scale, while smaller speculators are in the mid-50s. This suggests a long continuation pattern with room for more retail participation.

Startups (1)

• Massel Begnan announces the launch of cotssignal.com, a free, no-registration resource providing access to Commitment of Traders data for all major futures markets, updated immediately upon CFTC release.

BTC Markets (1)

• Ball details how Trump's crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial, a meme coin, AL-5 Sigma, and American Bitcoin, generated $2.3 billion for his family. This profit came at the expense of investors, who lost a corresponding $2.3 billion.

Markets (2)

• Trump conducted 22,000 stock transactions in 2025, a significant increase from 517 during his entire first term and Joe Biden's 13 transactions over four years. Ball highlights potential insider trading, such as Trump investing $500,000 in Abbot Laboratories two months before the DOJ dropped an investigation into the company.
• Trump invested up to $5 million each in Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, and Meta in July 2025, coinciding with his unveiling of an AI action plan that could benefit these companies. He also received $86.5 million from settlements in five lawsuits against media and tech companies.

Diplomacy (2)

• Trita Parsi discusses Vice President J.D. Vance's comments that the administration uses the Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to “refill the world’s oil economy” and build stocks for a potential Plan B. Parsi views this as both sides preparing for military escalation if diplomacy fails.
• Parsi argues the US-mediated Israeli-Lebanese agreement undermines the Iran MoU by making Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah's disarmament. Iran believes Israel has gained a strategic advantage by seizing Hezbollah positions during the war, compromising future defensive capabilities.

Iran (1)

• Parsi indicates that Iran is rebuilding civilian infrastructure and advancing weapon systems, similar to its actions after the 'Junie War.' He notes that global oil inventories were 'extremely high' during the recent conflict, preventing higher price spikes.

Trade (1)

• A US declaration of emergency authorizing temporary duty-free importation of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco indicates continued economic strain from Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Parsi explains that disruptions impact fertilizer supply, which is critical for agriculture and food security.