The Frontier

Peter St. Onge argues Spirit Airlines was forced into bankruptcy after losing $500 million a year. It faced a $400 million annual tax burden and a $400 million jet fuel cost spike from the Iran war.

Peter St. Onge says the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord seeks to monetize US security alliances. In response, allies have promised $4 trillion in investment and NATO members are increasing defense spending from 1.5% to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Peter St. Onge reports 50 countries have implemented emergency energy measures post-Iran war, with a 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release replacing half the lost Iranian supply. Oil markets project supply disruptions into 2027-2028.

The Revolutionary Guards rose to power by securing borders, managing proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and crushing domestic protests. The war created an opening for them to dominate.

Israel remains a wild card for Iran. Leaders fear covert attacks and assassinations could continue even after a ceasefire with the U.S.

The logic of AI-driven military escalation, as seen in Project Maven, failed in the US war with Iran. Evans cites the 2026 bombing of the Monob Girls Elementary School, which killed 156 people, as evidence that speed-focused targeting cannot ensure accuracy or strategic victory.

Andrew Sage details the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, which began on March 19 under UN Resolution 1973, toppling Gaddafi but killing tens of thousands and devastating infrastructure, leading to ongoing civil war.

Trump claims Iran's drone factories are eighty-two percent destroyed and missile factories almost ninety percent destroyed, framing the conflict as a successful military operation.

The U.S. shipped sixty-five hundred tons of munitions and equipment to Israel in twenty-four hours, indicating preparations for potential new strikes on Iran.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson reportedly referred to the Iran conflict as a 'two week bombing run,' reflecting initial administration expectations of a quick victory.

Ryan Grimm argues the U.S. is in a weaker position for renewed conflict, with oil prices over $100 a barrel and key regional bases destroyed, unlike at the war's start.

Krystal Ball notes polling shows the Iran war is already as unpopular as the Vietnam War was at its worst, but it took six years for Vietnam to reach that level.

Nathan proposes Rubio's non-interventionist stance stems from his presidential ambition and an understanding that military force can no longer effectively protect monetary hegemony. He posits the US must either adapt or find a bloodless method to usurp rival systems.

Nathan cites Luke Groman's analysis that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-April, global supply chains are mathematically certain to collapse. He warns of severe economic impacts and potential for renewed consumer panic.

President Trump directed the military to prepare for an indefinite naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding Iran agree to a nuclear deal before lifting it.

Beirut Airport has been a symbol of Hezbollah's control, used to smuggle Iranian weapons and money. The Lebanese government now uses it to reassert sovereignty against the group.

Hezbollah is weakened after a six-week war with Israel, which decimated its military and political command and cleared its villages in a new Israeli buffer zone.

The ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel allows Israel to conduct strikes in self-defense, which it has continued, killing dozens of Lebanese since the truce began.

Hezbollah MP Hussain Haj Hassan argues Lebanon's confessional democracy requires consensus for major decisions like peace with Israel, but concedes Hezbollah launched war without such consensus.

Over a million people were displaced in the recent Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Many returned after the ceasefire, but Israel's occupation of 5% of southern Lebanon prevents tens of thousands from going home.

The Lebanese government declared Hezbollah's military activities illegal and aims to weaken the group by cutting its funding and smuggling revenue, not through direct military confrontation.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee for the first time in a year, facing questions over the stalled Iran war and his controversial management of the Pentagon.

The hearing was to review a historic $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request for FY27, which is about $500 billion more than the current year's budget. The funds are intended to replenish munitions, rebuild the Navy, and construct a new anti-missile system called Golden Dome.

Hegseth framed congressional Democrats and critical Republicans as the primary adversary, calling them 'reckless naysayers and defeatists' for questioning the Iran war and claiming they pose a greater threat than Iran itself.

Committee Republicans offered no criticism of Hegseth or the Iran war, instead praising his leadership, the operation to seize Venezuela's President Maduro, and the military's readiness.

Senate Democrats criticized the Iran war as a costly stalemate, citing estimates of over $25 billion spent already. They argued it has failed to remove Iran's regime, halt uranium enrichment, or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while driving up fuel and grocery costs.

Hegseth defended the war by arguing there is no price too high to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, framing short-term economic pain as a necessary cost for long-term security.

Hegseth presented a novel legal interpretation to avoid the War Powers Act, claiming the 60-day clock for congressional authorization is paused because the U.S. is currently in a ceasefire with Iran. Legal scholars disputed this claim.

Senator Elizabeth Warren questioned whether Pentagon insiders were profiting from the war using non-public information, citing a case where a Special Forces soldier allegedly made $400,000 trading on knowledge of the Venezuela operation.

Hegseth vehemently denied a Financial Times report that his broker attempted to buy shares in a defense-focused BlackRock fund just before the Iran war began, calling the story 'made up out of whole cloth.'

The hosts analyze the U.S. blockade of Iran, noting it has closed the Strait of Hormuz for over two weeks, spiking global oil prices and crashing the Iranian rial. They discuss a theory that the government will 'short oil massively' to lower prices before the midterm elections.

The hosts contrast the CIA's historical assessment that Iran had no active nuclear weapons program with the U.S. military's longstanding view of Iran as a primary source of regional instability, framing the current conflict as a battle between financial and military-industrial interests.

Europe faces severe energy security risks from the Strait of Hormuz closure, with only weeks of jet fuel left and potential for prices to quintuple. Consumer sentiment there is at its lowest since the pandemic.

Lacalle argues the US and China have superior staying power in the conflict. The US is a net exporter of 2.8 million barrels of oil per day, and China has massive commodity stockpiles plus a strategic supply agreement with Russia.

Iran’s economy was already in crisis before the war, with 60% inflation and protests in 2025. Lacalle notes 25% of its GDP and 60% of government revenue flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

European political sentiment is polarized regarding the conflict. A majority view holds it is a US-Israel issue, with support limited to logistical or diplomatic efforts, not active military participation.

Dave Smith argues the US war with Iran is the greatest potential military defeat in American history. He says it has transformed a sanctioned third-world country into a global power, a unique outcome compared to Vietnam or Afghanistan.

Saagar claims the US lost 50% of its interceptor capacity in the 38-day war. Krystal says the world now sees a breakdown of the US global empire.

Saagar says Japanese Airlines now charges a $350 surcharge per ticket for North America/Europe flights, more than double the pre-war rate, with South Korean airlines following suit.

Krystal and Saagar criticize Pete Hegseth for refusing to acknowledge war costs. Ro Khanna stated the blockade will cost the average household $5,000 extra for gas and food this year.

In other news, Defense Secretary Pete Hegesseth defended the war against Iran in Congress, where an aide disclosed its cost at $25 billion. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he will stay on the board after his term ends to protect the institution from political attacks.

The current oil supply shock is the largest in history, with a 13 million barrel per day deficit from the Strait of Hormuz closure, far exceeding the 3 million barrel per day disruption feared from the Russia-Ukraine war.

With wage growth bottoming, defense spending ramping, and a run-hot policy mandate, the speaker is 'in the camp that a 1970s second inflation wave is effectively baked in the cake.'

Robert Pape argues the US has lost control of the Iran war, evidenced by Iran negotiating without America and the UAE leaving OPEC+, which fragments the US-backed counterbalancing coalition in the region.

Pape warns the Iran war has global consequences, depleting US missile defenses for Taiwan and pushing Russia and Iran closer as they now collectively control 30% of the world's oil.

Donald Trump claimed via Truth Social that Iran is in a 'state of collapse' and asked the US to 'open the Strait of Hormuz' as soon as possible, a statement Ryan Grim and Emily Jashinsky treat as a fantasical production of his mind.

According to Grim, Iran's actual proposal was not a formal deal but a demand that the US lift its naval blockade, after which Iran would outline Strait management and then discuss other topics like its nuclear program.

Rory Johnston states roughly 20 million barrels per day transited the Strait of Hormuz before its closure. Current shut-in volume due to the closure is estimated at 13 million barrels per day.

Analyst Shiel Ben-Ephraim said Israeli opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have united against Netanyahu, but their views are now indistinguishable and both support continuing military campaigns.

Shiel Ben-Ephraim stated the IDF chief warned 2026 will be a year of fighting on all fronts, but this reflects the current geopolitical alignment under Netanyahu, who uses war to distract from his legal troubles and the October 7 investigation.

Shiel Ben-Ephraim reported Hezbollah is using IEDs and drones attached to Ethernet cables, tactics learned from Ukraine, which the IDF cannot intercept, killing and injuring Israeli soldiers in Lebanon despite a U.S.-ordered halt to advances.

Ann Coulter argued the Iran war is a larger betrayal than Trump's immigration failures, stating Trump's pre-election messaging promised no war and his campaign retweeted warnings that Kamala Harris would start a conflict.

Saagar notes the current U.S. red line against Iran focuses solely on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, a demand detached from prior nuclear or proxy issues. The strait was fully open before the war started on February 27th.

Krystal cites an Axios report stating Trump told an advisor the only thing Iranians understand is bombs. She argues Trump undermined ceasefire talks by expanding the naval blockade and canceling negotiations in Islamabad.

Saagar reports Brent crude oil has returned to its pre-ceasefire price, indicating Iran's economic strategy is working. He notes Iran may soon fill its oil storage, forcing a critical decision to shut down production.

Krystal highlights Secretary Marco Rubio's Fox News interview, where he rejected Iran's new proposal to negotiate only on the Strait of Hormuz while setting aside nuclear talks, calling it unacceptable.

Saagar cites a Wall Street Journal report that last week saw the lowest-ever traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. blockade. Only one LNG tanker transited yesterday compared to the usual hundreds.

Krystal details a U.S. seizure of the tanker NT Majestic carrying 1.9 million barrels of Iranian oil. An Iranian official condemned the act as piracy and warned of retaliatory strikes on regional oil facilities.

Saagar references Jeremy Scahill's report that Iran's strategy rests on three points of leverage: munitions, markets, and the U.S. midterm elections. Iran aims to deny Trump a victory and prolong the conflict.

Krystal notes key U.S. allies are breaking ranks. A Japanese tanker secured transit through the Strait, and Germany's chancellor called the war a humiliating disaster for the U.S. with no exit in sight.