The 2027 French presidential campaign kicked off in a courtroom yesterday. A Paris appeal court upheld Marine Le Pen’s conviction for misusing European Parliament funds, but ruled she had already served her time of ineligibility. The decision clears her path to run.
According to Sophie Peder, The Economist’s Paris bureau chief, this ends 15 months of leadership uncertainty for the National Rally and upends the party’s internal dynamic. Le Pen’s 30-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, had been preparing for his own presidential bid, aiming to widen the party's appeal to a more middle-class, business-friendly electorate.
"Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 30-year-old protégé, was mentally preparing for a run of his own. Now, he returns to second place."
- Sophie Peder, The Intelligence from The Economist
Le Pen now inherits a party transformed from the xenophobic National Front of her father into a mainstream political force. She targets working-class voters with left-leaning policies on pensions and low incomes, a potential pivot from Bardella's strategy.
First-round polls show Le Pen with a crushing lead at around 30%, while her closest rival, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, trails at about 20%. Despite the dominant first-round position, the decisive second round - which requires 50% - remains a toss-up. Le Pen still struggles to cross that threshold against centrist opponents. The reprieve has settled the candidate, but the electoral math remains the same.
