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Simon Dixon outlines three pillars propping up the market: Fed money printing to lower bond yields, ETF/index inclusion rules allowing trillion-dollar IPOs from day one, and media narrative manipulation around an AI-national security arms race.
The Thomson Reuters Commodity CRB index is up 33% year-to-date. Dixon links this to the Strait of Hormuz closure forcing higher oil prices and economic distress to justify Fed bond purchases.
UAE's exit from OPEC combined with its Fed FX swap line access dismantles the petrodollar's two pillars: dollar-priced oil recycling into Treasuries and coordinated oil supply quotas.
Rohit Chopra argues the Fed has never been independent from Wall Street, only from democratic whims, and Trump seeks control to reward friends and punish enemies with the money supply.
Hayes states US Treasury issuance shifted to short-term bills in 2022, drawing $2.5T from the Fed’s reverse repo into markets. This injected liquidity that powered asset rallies despite high rates.
Polymarket shows a 70% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, up from 36% just weeks prior, indicating market pessimism.