Lawrence Lepard predicts a $7-10 trillion "big print" is imminent, following previous $3 trillion (2008) and $5 trillion (pandemic) events, triggered when money supply growth lags debt levels. This pattern suggests continuous money printing to maintain the system.
Lawrence Lepard anticipates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, predicting a new program to inject money with a national security component, akin to WWI Liberty Bonds. This would involve banks buying treasuries, potentially sending gold to $10,000 and Bitcoin to $400,000.
Gromen points to a record $15 billion Treasury buyback and Fed reserve management as evidence of soft yield curve control, aimed at preventing the 10-year yield from breaking above 4.4%.
Alden outlines the monetization sequence: breaking funding markets lead to Fed liquidity facilities, then balance sheet expansion, and finally Treasury buybacks. She notes the Fed will act to prevent a failed Treasury auction.
Mallers argues the US faces a monetary trilemma: forcibly reopen the strait at high cost, negotiate a deal that looks like a loss, or print money to manage the ensuing economic crisis. He believes all paths lead to significant money printing.
Mallers cites Jerome Powell stating the Fed will 'look past' the oil price shock, which he interprets as a signal the central bank will not hike rates and may cut them to avoid a sovereign debt crisis given high US interest expenses.