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June U.S. CPI fell 0.4% monthly and rose 3.5% annually, softer than forecasts. Core CPI was flat monthly and rose 2.6% annually. Bennett argues this data ties the Fed's hands, preventing rate hikes due to the national debt burden.
Mallers sees the Fed and Treasury trapped between dovish policy (inflating away debt) and hawkish policy (triggering a sovereign debt crisis), predicting they will choose inflation.
St. Onge points to a Dallas Fed working paper estimating illegal immigrants drove 30% of COVID-era house price growth, adding about $40,000 to median home prices.
Total stablecoin supply grew by over 50% in 2025, reaching about $317 billion by April according to the Federal Reserve. EU officials worry about dollar tokens flooding Europe.
James Lavish argues the Federal Reserve will likely change how it measures inflation, possibly shifting to a trimmed mean PCE metric that excludes volatile outliers like energy and rent.
Lavish notes credit card delinquencies at 90 days have matched 2008 levels, per first-quarter New York Fed data. He links this to people fully embracing a debt-based economy.
Lavish sees the Fed's primary mandate as instilling confidence in the US dollar, not just managing inflation and employment. He views its 2% inflation target as a politically tolerable level the public won't notice.
Lavish predicts the Fed will act on its balance sheet before adjusting rates, quietly expanding through treasury buybacks and T-bill purchases rather than overt QE. He calls this 'QE Lite'.