Jacob Shapiro initially predicted the US-Iran conflict would last less than four weeks, citing Iran's asymmetric advantages in geography and cheap weaponry that overwhelm US high-tech military assets.
Shapiro argues LNG and fertilizer shortages pose greater risks than oil, as Europe's post-Russia energy plan relied on new Gulf capacity and farmers have already missed annual application windows.
Shapiro warns that if the conflict persists into May, global economic damage will intensify, with political instability likely following food price spikes in emerging markets.
Shapiro frames the current era as analogous to the 1890s, a period of great power shifts, energy transition, and technological revolution, not the 1930s path to world war.
He remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by AI, robotics, and a diversified energy transition, arguing investors should develop macro scenarios beyond daily headline noise.