The Frontier

Luke Gromen frames the Iran-Hormuz crisis as a potential 1956 US Suez moment, where the US faces a choice between a humiliating pullback or printing money to cap bond yields amid an oil spike.

Gromen notes US interest and entitlement costs reached 102% of federal receipts for the first half of FY2026, creating a dynamic where a recession would force the government to choose between default or money printing.

Gromen highlights a shift in Treasury ownership from patient foreign central banks to leveraged hedge funds, citing a Fed white paper showing 37% of net Treasury issuance over four years went to Cayman Islands entities.