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Luke Gromen notes the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for months longer than expected, through July 21st, but crude oil prices did not rise as anticipated.
Luke Gromen states China weaponized its clean energy dominance, using its solar panels, EVs, and battery arrays to help countries reduce oil and dollar demand via yuan swap lines.
Luke Gromen argues China's long-term goal, expressed since 2009, is to shift the global monetary system to a non-credit-based currency with gold as the neutral reserve asset.
Luke Gromen identifies U.S. officials Bessent, Greer, Vance, and Trump as advocating for Hamiltonian economics: high tariffs and a neutral reserve asset like gold.
China implemented helium export bans despite low prices, which Luke Gromen interprets as preparation for extended conflict and U.S. weaponization of critical supplies.
Luke Gromen highlights that Chinese AI is challenging U.S. models, referencing a one-gigawatt Chinese data center running entirely on domestic semiconductors.
Luke Gromen advises buying gold as a hedge, noting historical patterns of war and gold prices, and the increasing yuan trade volumes in China's CIPS system.
Luke Gromen recommends U.S. electrical infrastructure and Japanese industrial equities, citing severe power bottlenecks in the U.S. and Japan's critical role in reshoring manufacturing.