The Frontier

The US needs 3.3% GDP growth to sustain its debt, but projections have slipped to 1.7%, threatening a fiscal doom loop.

John Arnold argues the Fed has hit a fiscal ceiling where further rate hikes would threaten Treasury solvency before taming inflation.

U.S. government interest expense is already at its limit, preventing a hawkish response even to energy-driven inflation shocks.

In the 1940s, the Fed and Treasury coordinated to peg the 10-year yield at 2.5% instead of fighting inflation with rates.

Arnold expects the Fed will ultimately choose to protect the bond market's functionality over maintaining currency stability.

Central banks use credit expansion to mask the loss of productivity from a shrinking workforce, creating a 'fog of war'.

US home sales plunged 20% in a single month, the steepest drop since the 2008 financial crisis, with a 45% crash in the Northeast.

Despite a 5% rise in inventory and a 7% year-on-year price dip, buyers have vanished from the housing market, says Peter St Onge.

Half of all US mortgages were initiated at sub-3% rates during pandemic-era Fed policy, locking homeowners in place.

Moving to an identical home today would double the average mortgage payment from $1,300 to $2,500, freezing household wealth and labor mobility.

Marty Bent argues central banks are tripping over themselves to devalue currency to keep the global financial system liquid.

Ryan Sean Adams notes the U.S. cannot afford its debt interest payments if bond yields remain elevated.

The U.S. labor market is showing cracks, suggesting the economy cannot withstand further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Historically, the Fed has looked through oil price spikes, expecting them to destroy demand and cool the economy on their own.

The ECB and Bank of England's single inflation mandates force them to hike rates when oil spikes, unlike the Fed's dual mandate.

A potential Fed chair change to Kevin Warsh shifts focus to how the U.S. manages its debt in a persistent high-inflation environment.

Raoul Pal argues modern economies cannot tolerate a classic recession because central banks will always flood the system with liquidity to prevent a collapse of asset collateral.

Mark Suman argues that rising stock prices are a form of red ink, a government liability created by printing money for asset holders.

Hedonic CPI adjustments let the government mask inflation by counting better product features as price deflation.

Suman claims this statistical trickery allows the state to dilute the financial system by 10% annually while claiming stability.