Bitcoin hit a new high this cycle, yet remains deeply undervalued and far from a true bottom.
According to Rational Root on What Bitcoin Did, the lack of a crash following the Iran conflict is a key signal. Bitcoin didn't plummet on the news because it had already sold off in anticipation. This absence of a panic sell-off suggests the market is nearing the end of its bear phase, but the floor isn't yet solidified.
Historical four-year cycles still dictate the timeline. On-chain metrics and a yearly RSI at historic lows confirm undervaluation, but bottoms are processes, not events. They typically take months to form, and this cycle appears to be following that pattern.
The final catalyst could come from elsewhere. A broader stock market crash, potentially linked to election volatility, might trigger one last leg down for Bitcoin. This would serve as a final capitulation, washing out remaining weak hands before a durable rally begins.
For now, Bitcoin's price action is tied to traditional risk assets, not its narrative as digital gold. Its correlation with the Nasdaq remains strong. Demand from individuals in war zones is real but too small to move the global market. Liquidity and macroeconomic sentiment are the primary drivers.
The rational play is patience. The undervaluation is clear, but the market needs time to find its true base.
Rational Root, What Bitcoin Did:
- Bitcoin is already at very undervalued levels.
- But it doesn't mean that we cannot go lower.
