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Marty Bent and John note that the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high of 84%. John views this as a classic signal of bear market bottom formation, aligning with historical patterns.
Vlad takes an opposite view to app-chains, building Lighter on Base to leverage existing user liquidity. This avoids fragmenting the user base.
Vlad asserts that building on a major L2 like Base avoids a 'cold start' problem for a new exchange. It outweighs the benefits of total chain control.
Vlad believes the network effects of a major L2 outweigh benefits of total chain control. Competing for block space is negligible compared to being one click from a user's balance.
Keon notes Crew proposed a privacy system called "The Black Hole," which aims to combine four coinjoin protocols - WabiSabi, ZeroLink, PayJoin, and JoinMarket - into a coherent system. The goal is to enhance participant privacy and create common denomination outputs, funded by high time-preference whales.
Wasabi version 2.8.1 was released as a stable update, primarily addressing a syncing bug with full nodes and potentially a software update bug. Crew also advised users to perform coinjoins before chain forks to ensure replay protection and proper coin splitting.
BitMEX, a prominent crypto exchange known for 100x leveraged trading, announced its shutdown effective September 23rd, with owner HDR Global Trading Limited citing a decision to close operations. Carr recalls its historical significance in the space and its contributions to Bitcoin research.
A Bitcoin Security Consortium formed, including Anchorage Digital, Arc Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity, Galaxy, and MicroStrategy, to support the long-term security and stability of the Bitcoin protocol. Mike Schmidt volunteers to coordinate efforts, initially focusing on quantum computing threats.
Toeer and Keon suggest the Bitcoin Security Consortium, similar to the Bitcoin Mining Council, is primarily a PR initiative driven by institutional investors protecting their financial interests against quantum FUD. They argue that fundamental cryptographic research, which benefits all industries, doesn't require Bitcoin-specific consortiums.
He realized his mistake was asking Bitcoin to perform four distinct financial jobs - growth, income, optionality (liquidity), and stability - which are incompatible due to its inherent volatility.
Matt Odell states that debanking and financial rugs will continue until self-custody of Bitcoin significantly improves. He emphasizes Bitcoin's role as permissionless money without counterparty risk, advocating for individuals to retain direct control over their wealth.
Jack Mallers stepped down from XXI, a company manufactured to do certain things but never executed on them. Matt Odell believes this is positive for Strike, its shareholders, users, and the Bitcoin industry, as Jack can now fully control Strike's destiny.
Matt Odell criticizes Bitcoin treasury companies for conflating their business models with Bitcoin's core value proposition, suggesting many were funded by existing Bitcoiners. He advises against measuring performance solely in dollar terms, instead questioning if they outperform Bitcoin itself.
Transaction fees on the Bitcoin mempool are currently very low, with high-priority transactions costing less than one sat per vbyte. Matt Odell notes this is due to miners prioritizing subsidy revenue over transaction fees, which remain a negligible part of their income.
Despite some lagging adoption for direct Bitcoin use, Matt Odell highlights positive trends like Square's Bitcoin payment integration and growing circular economies in countries like Kenya, Costa Rica, and South Africa. These regions leverage existing mobile money infrastructure for seamless Bitcoin (Lightning) payments.
Matt Odell views Nostr as a successful ride-or-die communication and identity protocol, particularly useful with AI tools and other open protocols. However, he acknowledges its failure to become a mass social media replacement or move the majority of Bitcoin discussion away from X.
ZapStore, an Android app store replacement built on Nostr, offers permissionless app discovery and security. Developers sign apps with their Nostr key, allowing users to verify authenticity without relying on centralized app stores like Google Play or Apple App Store.
Matty refutes claims that Bitcoin's power law is broken, asserting that the power curve for network adoption continues to grow robustly, a trend he first charted in 2018.
Bitcoin currently sits in a historically low range on its power curve, indicating a statistically bullish phase. Matty highlights that recent market events like the 2022 crash expanded the realm of price probabilities.
Matty notes that Bitcoin's price, if it were an exponential asset like others, should be around $600,000, but its power law trend, with a 96.1% R-squared, is more conservative.
Bitcoin's power trend indicates its price doubles for every 13% increase in its lifespan, translating to a current compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 40% over two years, which is still substantial despite a slight slowdown.
Bitcoin's cypherpunk ethos remains strong, with innovations in layered payments, privacy, and covenant solutions, challenging the narrative that TradFi integration has extinguished Bitcoin's freedom-tech roots.
Bitcoin's value transferred reached a record $60 trillion (TTM) in 2022. While Fedwire transfers $1.2 quadrillion annually, Bitcoin's current annual clip is $24 trillion, now 47.6 times smaller than Fedwire, compared to 16-17 times smaller in 2022.
A log-periodic model, derived from Giovanni's work, projects Bitcoin's price by the end of 2028: the power curve trend is $300,000, the log-periodic model is $520,000, and the Q90 (high probability) is $778,000, with an extreme upside (Q100) of $2.2 million.
Cortic views mining to a pool as detrimental to decentralization, but John defends the practice, stating that pooling is a necessary profitability measure to sustain his mining operation and avoid going out of business.
Saylor announced the Bitcoin Security Consortium, comprising nine companies, to inform the community about Bitcoin security, particularly quantum threats, and fund related development efforts.
Presidio Bitcoin is expanding its Visiting Members program, offering 1-3 month residencies in San Francisco for individuals or small pre-seed startups focused on Bitcoin or AI open-source projects.
Stratum V2, a significantly improved mining protocol, is seeing positive traction; CK PoolDev, an OG mining protocol developer, has become a full convert and is running a pool with Stratum V2 support.
Steve criticized Foundry's decision to hold a hash rate-weighted vote on BIP-110, arguing it sets a bad precedent by elevating a specific fork and misusing signaling, which is meant for communication, not voting.
Simon Dixon is addressing public questions on his stance regarding BIP 110, a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, which he philosophically supports despite recognizing corruption within Bitcoin Core development.