Bitcoin weathered a war scare without collapsing, and that means something. When Iran launched missiles at Israel, traditional risk assets dipped, but Bitcoin held relatively steady. According to Rational Root on What Bitcoin Did, the lack of a panic sell-off is significant. It suggests the market had already priced in the worst before the geopolitical news hit, a sign of a maturing bear market.

This resilience doesn’t mean the bottom is officially in. Rational Root argues the historical four-year cycle still dictates Bitcoin’s price action. On-chain metrics confirm Bitcoin is deeply undervalued, yet bottoms are processes, not points. They take months to form. The yearly RSI sits at levels historically associated with bear market troughs, indicating a potential floor, but not an immediate V-shaped recovery.

The final catalyst for a true turnaround might be a broader market shock. Rational Root posits that a stock market crash, potentially triggered by election-year volatility, could provide the necessary capitulation event. Bitcoin’s correlation to risk assets like the Nasdaq remains strong. It moves with liquidity and market optimism, not as a standalone digital gold.

While narratives of Bitcoin as a wartime escape hatch have merit, their market impact is currently marginal. Individual use in conflict zones is real but represents a tiny fraction of global demand. For now, price is driven by macro liquidity, not geopolitical flight. The rational play is patience, waiting out the final months of this cycle.

Rational Root, What Bitcoin Did:

- Bitcoin is already at very undervalued levels.

- But it doesn't mean that we cannot go lower.