Startups (1)

• Steve announces Presidio Bitcoin will host a hub for hack-nation.ai, a global hackathon in April, where Spiral is sponsoring a challenge focused on AI agents earning money via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.

Big Tech (1)

• Max notes that Anthropic's revenue growth is substantial, potentially outpacing Google and the U.S. federal government, raising questions about the future power dynamics between AI companies and nation-states.

Protocol (6)

• The sovereign individual thesis, advocating for individual power through technology like cryptography, faces a challenge if advanced AI centralizes capabilities, especially around violence and cyberattacks.
• Presidio Bitcoin released its Quantum Readiness Report, an open-source, living document on GitHub designed to provide a balanced, comprehensive, and investor-friendly overview of quantum computing threats to Bitcoin.
• The report outlines various scenarios for quantum threat timelines, ranging from two years to never, and proposes a plan for Bitcoin's resilience, including the potential to move 80-20% of vulnerable coins in a day.
• Lalu prototyped a quantum-safe transaction method for Bitcoin that does not require consensus changes, utilizing a hashing algorithm to protect coins, though it incurs a cost of approximately $150 per UTXO.
• This prototype results in non-standard transactions that are not automatically relayed by the Bitcoin network, requiring centralized services or direct miner agreements for inclusion.
• Daniel Burr proposed a method using Taproot's script scheme to signal quantum proofing, potentially allowing users to opt-in for future quantum-resistant upgrades to their Taproot-based coin spending paths.

AI & Tech (3)

• DK highlights that Anthropic recently 'nerfed' its public models, causing user dissatisfaction and questioning whether its lead over competitors like Google and OpenAI is sustainable or due to unsustainable margins.
• Max and DK discuss the emerging risk for companies that become dependent on a single AI model provider, facing potential feature reductions or price hikes without control, emphasizing the need for multi-model strategies.
• Google's recent paper suggesting quantum computing can accelerate AI is seen as a significant development, potentially increasing investment and compressing the timeline for viable quantum computers.

War (2)

• Iran reportedly demands ten concessions from the US for a ceasefire, including sanctions relief, payment of compensation, and the right to continue its nuclear program. Jack Mallers argues this would constitute a US loss if it cannot militarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz to enforce the petrodollar system.
• Mallers cites analyst Rory to frame the real metric of the conflict: whether ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A real reopening would relieve supply-parched markets, while a fake announcement delays adjustment to ongoing oil shortages.

Trade (2)

• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen off a cliff, a fact Mallers presents as the key economic indicator. He argues this proves Iran is using control over 20% of global oil supply to leverage the indebted US where it hurts financially.
• Mallers states the US's greatest export over the last four months has been non-monetary gold, refined in Switzerland and shipped to China. He presents this as evidence gold is currently lubricating global trade outside the dollar system.

Protocol (5)

• Mallers argues Bitcoin is uniquely both a monetary asset and a monetary network, enabling trustless finality over the internet. Gold is only an asset, requiring trusted custodians for global settlement, which is its fatal flaw.
• Bitcoin's current market cap is $1.49 trillion, making it smaller than many large tech firms. Mallers notes it is not yet large enough to absorb major sovereign flows, like China's trade surplus, without extreme price appreciation.
• He argues monetary authorities face a suicide choice: cut rates into an inflationary oil shock or hike rates into a deflationary AI and credit crisis. His conclusion is the dollar must be devalued, benefiting neutral assets like Bitcoin and gold.
• Mallers claims high taxes are theft that sidelined society's greatest producers from building public infrastructure. He points to El Salvador's zero-tax approach for firms like Tether, which then voluntarily invest in national infrastructure like airports, as a superior model.
• He endorses Nayib Bukele's view that taxes uphold the illusion of funding a government actually financed by money printing. This debasement means citizens are stolen from twice: via direct taxation and via inflation.

Big Tech (1)

• A Bloomberg headline claimed Powell and Yellen met bank CEOs due to an Anthropic AI model, but Mallers interprets this as a cover for discussing a brewing private credit crisis. He points to Fed queries on bank exposure to the $1.8 trillion private credit industry and funds facing large withdrawal requests.

AI & Tech (1)

• Mallers cites Arthur Hayes's 'deflation in what you want, inflation in what you need' framework. AI is causing deflation in office real estate and consumer goods while layoffs raise delinquencies, but the energy shock creates inflation in essential commodities like oil.

War (3)

• David Bennett questions the feasibility of a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports, noting intelligence lag and uncertainty over detecting crypto payments.
• Allard's analysis argues the Iran war highlights Bitcoin's value as an open settlement network immune to correspondent banking or state control.
• Iran's 2025 crypto transaction volume was $8-11 billion, with researchers noting millions moved from Iranian exchanges after strikes.

ETFs (2)

• Since the Iran war started February 28, 2026, IBIT gained 11.75% while SPY fell 0.6%, gold fell 9.6%, and silver fell 18.72%.
• Morgan Stanley plans tokenized money market funds and crypto tax strategies after launching its Bitcoin ETF, aiming to expand beyond Bitcoin.

Custody (2)

• Garrett Dutton lost 5.9 Bitcoin ($420,000) to a fake Ledger app on the App Store, part of a pattern targeting Ledger users.
• Bennett advocates for Cold Card over Ledger, citing Ledger's repeated hacks and scams, and notes Cold Card's open-source design.

Markets (1)

• Bitget launched Pre-SPECS token offering retail exposure to SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO, but grants no equity, voting rights, or ownership.

Stablecoins (2)

• Jeremy Allaire defended Circle's decision not to freeze USDC in the Drift exploit, citing legal obligation and moral quandary unless law enforcement directs action.
• WLE threatens legal action against Justin Sun after he accused the Trump-linked project of treating users as ATMs over a $75 million stablecoin loan.