BTC Markets (8)

• Michael Nato posits that crypto cycles consist of four phases: early bull, wealth creation, wealth distribution, and wealth destruction, with the market currently in the wealth destruction phase that began in early 2025.
• Nato argues the four-year cycle is a law of nature for crypto, driven by business cycles, liquidity, credit conditions, and reflexive investor psychology, similar to traditional finance cycles.
• A bullish case for Bitcoin bottoming cites that its price dropped close to its realized price in early February 2025, and market sentiment hit bear-market lows comparable to 2022 levels.
• Nato counters that key Bitcoin valuation metrics like MVRV-Z Score at 1.14 are not yet at deep-value bear market levels seen in 2022 (0.76) or 2018 (0.70), suggesting the bottom may not be in.
• The bull case points to MicroStrategy purchasing $7.6 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026 and ETF resilience as structural shifts that could mute this bear market, making it shorter and milder.
• Nato notes Bitcoin historically peaks before global liquidity cycles peak, and the current liquidity downtrend suggests the bear market resolution could still be months away.
• Bearish indicators include collapsing on-chain activity, with Bitcoin spot volumes and Solana DeFi metrics at levels last seen in deep 2023, and no signs of leveraged long positioning in perps markets.
• Nato argues the Iran conflict is more complex than 2025's tariff scare due to multiple international actors, and elevated oil prices could reduce US consumption GDP by roughly 1%.

Markets (1)

• The bear case anchors on Michael Howell's global liquidity framework, which shows liquidity has peaked and is rolling over, with a six-month lag expected to impact traditional markets.

AI & Tech (1)

• Despite strong AI sector demand, Nato contends the broader liquidity and fiscal cycle outweighs it; the S&P 500 breaking its 200-day moving average in March 2025 signals a potential correction phase.

Protocol (1)

• Nato assesses a 60% probability that Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle low, citing incomplete market structure reset and a lack of liquidity or fiscal catalysts.

Energy (1)

• He points to a critical electricity shortage now, contrasting steep US demand growth with China's more aggressive capacity expansion. Power transformers, unchanged for a century, need reinvention.

Chips (1)

• Horowitz notes supply chain latency creates shortages even when demand is clear. He cites a current DRAM factory build time of five years, with Dell servers shipping without RAM due to shortages.

AI & Tech (5)

• Horowitz outlines three critical problems AI creates that crypto can solve: verifying human vs. bot identity, cryptographically signing content for authenticity, and enabling AIs to be economic actors.
• Horowitz states AI makes current fraud and payment systems untenable. He estimates roughly $450 billion was stolen from government stimulus programs, underscoring the need for crypto-based identity and payment rails.
• He sees a fundamental democratization of creation. AI now allows 8 billion people with ideas to execute them, removing capital and skill gates not just for code but for music, film, and other media.
• Horowitz refutes dystopian AI narratives by citing historical transitions. He notes 93-94% of Americans were farmers in the 1750s, and jobs consistently evolve toward greater abundance and new forms of value creation.
• He criticizes John Maynard Keynes for underestimating human wants. Keynes predicted 15-hour workweeks once needs were met, but new luxuries like multi-car households and gourmet food rapidly become perceived needs.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

• He argues the blockchain provides a preferable trust layer for digital truth over centralized entities like Google or the U.S. government, citing its mathematical game-theoretic properties.

War (10)

• Shashank Joshi says America's new military strategy against Iran is a blockade on all ships from Iranian ports or coastal waters, enforced impartially by US Central Command to meet international legal requirements.
• Joshi notes the US previously seized 10 tankers linked to Venezuela in the last six months, showing its capacity for enforcement. The blockade's aim is to sever Iran's economic lifeline and force negotiations on its nuclear program.
• Joshi argues Iran survived oil exports below 400,000 barrels per day in 2020 and can endure a new blockade using floating storage and credit lines. He doubts the blockade will bring Iran to its knees quickly.
• Joshi warns Iran will likely retaliate by attacking neutral shipping, trapping Gulf oil supply and potentially pushing Brent crude futures to $150 a barrel by late April.
• Joshi states the blockade will affect ships from adversaries like China and allies including Pakistan, Thailand, France, and Turkey, creating a diplomatic crisis for the US and risking further escalation.
• Joshi speculates Iran feels it won the first round of hostilities by surviving and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. He believes Iran will try to outlast Trump, betting on rising oil prices and US midterm elections in seven months.
• Tom Gardner reports Burkina Faso's President Ibrahim Traoré, a 38-year-old military officer in power since a 2022 coup, is implementing a 'total war' scorched earth campaign against jihadists that Human Rights Watch says constitutes war crimes.
• Gardner says a new Human Rights Watch report documents over 1,800 civilian deaths in 57 attacks, which are likely just the tip of the iceberg. The junta stands accused of ethnic cleansing against the Fulani minority.
• Gardner explains Traoré's strategy relies on tens of thousands of poorly trained volunteer defense forces, who now outnumber the official army by more than double and have ethnicized the conflict by targeting Fulani communities.
• Gardner argues the government's actions are counterproductive, driving more people to the jihadists. Jihadist movements in Burkina Faso are growing faster than in neighboring Mali and Niger, yet Traoré's strategy remains popular in areas distant from the fighting.

Business (1)

• John Fasman reports US sparkling water sales are up 70% from 2019 according to Mintel. Joseph Priestley developed carbonation in 1767, and Johann Schwepp later commercialized it.