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Analyst warns Bitcoin singularity nears by 2035

Monday, April 27, 2026 · from 1 podcast
1 SOURCETFTC
  • Bitcoin follows a power law that will eclipse gold and force a global monetary reset.
  • It already processes more transactions than Fedwire despite smaller market cap.
  • A collision with accelerating stock markets could trigger a financial singularity by 2035.

Bitcoin isn’t playing by the same rules as stocks or gold. According to Matthew Mežinskis on TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast, it grows along a power law curve - each 13% increase in its lifespan drives a doubling in price - unlike gold’s steady 5.3% annual growth since 1971. This structural difference means Bitcoin doesn’t just outperform; it redefines the game.

Bitcoin is already outpacing legacy infrastructure. It passed Fedwire in annual transaction count back in 2016, now handling 373 million per year versus Fedwire’s 219 million. The bottleneck isn’t throughput - it’s purchasing power. With $25 trillion in annual settlement volume against Fedwire’s $1.1 quadrillion, Bitcoin remains smaller in value, but the gap is closing fast.

"Bitcoin dominates the relationship with any exponential asset it's priced against."

- Matthew Mežinskis, TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Markets are accelerating while Bitcoin stabilizes. The S&P 500’s growth rate has nearly tripled over the last century, now approaching 12%, fueled by central bank liquidity. Bitcoin, by contrast, slows as it scales - a mathematical inverse to the stock market’s sprint. These curves are on a collision course.

Mežinskis projects the inflection between 2035 and 2040. He calls it the 'essential singularity' - a moment when infinite growth expectations crash into Bitcoin’s finite, predictable supply. The result won’t be gradual adoption, but a forced global monetary reset.

"The next decade is the final window for the legacy system to reconcile with a deflationary currency."

- Matthew Mežinskis, TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

This isn’t speculation about price. It’s a structural argument: Bitcoin’s network effects and settlement utility are already live. The transition from dollar hegemony to a Bitcoin standard isn’t waiting on technology - it’s a race against time and trust.

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Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

#739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis • Apr 25

  • Matthew states that Bitcoin benefits from widespread central bank currency devaluation, emerging as a neutral, hard-capped reserve currency needed in an increasingly unstable global environment.
  • Bitcoin's price trajectory shows unique 'power curve' growth, unlike gold and other traditional assets, which follow exponential growth trends. Bitcoin currently trades at $78,126.
  • Gold's price topped at $5,200 in January and is currently $4,800, exhibiting a long-term compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% since August 1971, in contrast to Bitcoin's current 40% CAGR.
  • Matthew notes the Bitcoin to gold ratio reached 12-13 ounces of gold per Bitcoin in January, near its 2022 low of 9.5 ounces during the FTX collapse, and is currently 16 ounces, below its 10th percentile of 37 ounces.
  • Wall Street shows increasing institutional involvement in Bitcoin, which Matthew believes could 'brute force' its adoption even if other crypto segments face regulatory pressure from anti-crypto politicians like Elizabeth Warren.
  • Global base money, primarily central bank balance sheets, peaked at $30 trillion in December 2021 following COVID-19 stimulus, has decreased to $26 trillion, and shows a 12.5% global weighted compound annual growth rate since 1970.
  • The S&P 500's growth rate has significantly accelerated over time, from 2% in the 1800s to 11.7% (or 13.7% with dividends) since 2008, creating an 'essential singularity' tension with Bitcoin's decelerating power-law growth.
  • Matthew projects a 'mathematical singularity' between 2035 and 2040 where Bitcoin's slowing growth rate (e.g., 30% by 2031, 20% by 2041) will cross with the accelerating growth of traditional markets.
  • Marty Bent posits that a deflationary currency like Bitcoin, rather than Universal Basic Income (UBI), could be a more effective response to the abundance generated by artificial intelligence.
  • The EU operates as a confederation, not a centralized entity, with member states controlling most of their debt and contributing only 1-1.5% of their total spending to a balanced EU budget, excluding a $700 billion COVID stimulus package.
Also from this episode: (5)

Payments (1)

  • Bitcoin's transaction count, at 373 million, surpassed Fedwire's 219 million transactions in 2016 and has maintained its dominance, demonstrating its technical capability to replace traditional settlement networks, despite a smaller total value transacted ($25 trillion vs. $1.1 quadrillion).

Stablecoins (1)

  • Tether recently froze $344 million of its stablecoin, underscoring the centralized control and censorship potential of private digital currencies, which Marty Bent argues function similarly to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

Censorship (1)

  • Russia is undergoing an Orwellian shift to digital authoritarianism, implementing extreme internet censorship by throttling Western websites, shutting down 95% of Telegram, and attacking 486 VPNs in the name of 'digital sovereignty'.

Society (1)

  • Matthew highlights fundamental underdevelopment in Russia, noting that two in five Russians lack toilet access, and 1,200 schools nationwide operate without toilets, despite the country's claimed superpower status.

Custody (1)

  • Unchained provides collaborative multi-sig custody, securing over $12 billion in Bitcoin for 12,000 clients, with a 2-of-3 key model where clients hold two keys and Unchained holds one, also offering Bitcoin-backed loans and IRAs.
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