Support for political violence has crossed a mass-adoption threshold, with roughly 40 million American adults across the political spectrum now seeing it as legitimate.
Robert Pape, a researcher on The Daily, argues the U.S. is in a volatile era of “violent populism” that presents a greater risk to democracy than any foreign threat. His University of Chicago surveys show acceptance has roughly doubled, with 55% of those endorsing “force” defining it as assassination. This broad social approval provides air cover, making it harder for law enforcement to gather tips as communities look the other way for a “righteous cause.”
“This is not a fringe movement led by small militia groups. It is a mass phenomenon involving roughly 20 million adults on each side of the aisle.”
- Robert Pape, The Daily
The profile of the potential insurgent has shifted. Analysis of January 6th attackers revealed a surge of business owners, doctors, and lawyers - only about 10% had militia ties, compared to a historical 50%. These are “insurrectionists in business suits,” Pape notes, who resort to violence because they feel an existential “political lockout” and fear a total loss of stature.
The drivers are structural, not merely rhetorical. Pape identifies two primary fuels: the demographic transition from a white-majority to a white-minority democracy, and the massive wealth shift to the top 1% since the 1980s. Because neither major party has successfully addressed the wealth gap or the pace of social change, the resulting frustration turns into bipartisan rage. Social media acts as gasoline, but these shifts are the fire.
“When people believe they are being permanently excluded from the democratic process, they stop viewing politics as a policy dispute.”
- Robert Pape, The Daily
Pape advocates for a two-stage solution: long-term structural changes to immigration policy and wealth concentration, and immediate, joint condemnations of violence by political leaders. He cites a 20% drop in support for violence after President Biden’s speech following a Trump assassination attempt as proof rhetoric can work. The critical task, he argues, is for the 75% of Americans who abhor this violence to demand their leaders make a clear choice.
