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Iran's Hormuz blockade forces Gulf states toward China

Sunday, June 7, 2026 · from 2 podcasts, 4 episodes
No AgendaBreaking Points
  • Iran responds to US strikes by hitting Gulf allies and threatening the Strait of Hormuz, forcing regional powers to reassess American security guarantees.
  • Trump's weakened presidency, facing internal MAGA defections and stalled domestic projects, lacks the political capital to project deterrence.
  • A new US defense bill would permanently embed Israeli tech into Pentagon systems, surrendering Washington's leverage over its ally.

Iran’s retaliation has moved past targeting ships. The IRGC now hits US partner bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, a tenfold escalation designed to lock in regional gains. Breaking Points host Ryan Grim notes Iran has abandoned tit-for-tat. If the US strikes one target, Iran returns fire across the Gulf. Washington claims victory while oil prices climb toward $160 a barrel.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate the war is over and the US won. On the ground, the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat, a choke point for one-fifth of the world's oil. This gap between declared victory and operational reality is pushing Gulf states to hedge. Their choice is between a distracted America and a patient China.

“The U.S. can’t threaten to pull support. It creates a dynamic where the junior partner holds the keys to the senior partner’s arsenal.”

- Josh Paul on Section 224, Breaking Points

Trump’s political foundation is cracking under the strain. Influential MAGA media figures like Shawn Ryan say they feel “fucking duped” by Trump’s pivot to Middle Eastern conflict. On No Agenda, Adam Curry dissected an Axios leak where Trump reportedly called Netanyahu “effing crazy,” a deliberate move to channel anti-war sentiment toward the Israeli PM rather than Israel itself. The administration is in retreat, abandoning a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” after Senate Republicans refused to support it.

That weakness is structural. A new provision, Section 224 of the National Defense Authorization Act, seeks to make US-Israeli military integration irreversible. It mandates weaving Israeli quantum computing and cyber-surveillance tech into core Pentagon systems. The goal, as former official Josh Paul explained on Breaking Points, is to make the alliance “uncuttable” by future Congresses, flipping strategic leverage to the junior partner.

Meanwhile, the White House is preoccupied with spectacle. Trump converted the nation’s 250th-anniversary celebration into a UFC event on the South Lawn after musicians backed out. Saagar Enjeti argued this reflects a collapse from intellectual tradition to “bread and circuses” as the presidency personalizes the state. The energy required for deterrence is being spent on self-aggrandizement.

“Washington is projecting peace while oil prices creep toward $160 a barrel.”

- Ryan Grim, Breaking Points

The result is a strategic vacuum. Iran tests the boundaries, Gulf states calculate their futures, and China waits. The US military can still strike Qeshm Island, but its political will is depleted. The forcing function isn’t a new weapon; it’s the slow, visible erosion of American resolve, measured in abandoned funds, leaked insults, and a president telling the public to “relax” while the strait closes.

The realignment is already underway. It’s not a treaty signing in Beijing, but a quiet recalculation in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: if the guarantor is busy building a ballroom-bunker and fighting his own base, the guarantee isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.

#War#Diplomacy#Trade#Middle East#China
Ryan GrimIRGCChinaIranIsraelNational Defense Authorization ActStrait of HormuzWhite House

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No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1874 - "Kennel Index" • Jun 4

  • Adam Curry and John Dvorak highlight Tom Steyer's $300 million presidential campaign and $200 million California gubernatorial bid as financial failures that contradict the narrative that spending guarantees electoral victory.
  • The hosts critique the media 'podcast circle jerk' of figures like Megyn Kelly and Sean Hannity, accusing them of following clicks and views while expressing manufactured anger about Israel's political influence.
  • John Dvorak notes that Gen Z's reported 85% opposition to Israel provides a hopeful demographic shift away from current U.S. foreign policy.
  • Citing a leaked Axios report, the hosts discuss a call where President Trump reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu 'you're effing crazy' and 'I'm keeping your behind out of prison' over Lebanon actions.
  • Adam Curry argues the leak framing Netanyahu as 'bloodthirsty' channels anti-Israel sentiment specifically toward the Prime Minister rather than the nation, a deliberate political tactic.
  • Four House Republicans - Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett, Warren Davidson, and Thomas Massey - voted with Democrats on a War Powers Resolution against the Iran war, which the hosts dismiss as unconstitutional grandstanding.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Iran has no conventional navy or air force after U.S. operations, characterizing its remaining naval assets as 'a bunch of Boston Whalers with machine guns.'
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant accused Senator Ron Wyden of slandering the Treasury to cover up his son's investment meeting with Jeffrey Epstein to solicit funding for Rick's Cabaret.
  • Detransitioner Chloe Cole testified before Congress that gender transition procedures caused her chronic pain and potential infertility, citing studies showing they do not reduce long-term suicide rates.
  • The hosts mock President Trump's repeated on-air criticisms of CNN's Kaitlan Collins, including telling her to 'smile more,' and dismiss CNN's framing of it as a unique sexist incident.
  • Adam Curry notes the Trump administration scrapped a $1.8 billion 'weaponization fund' for perceived political victims after Republican opposition, a plan Democrats claimed could compensate January 6th rioters.
  • The Washington Post obtained a mock-up design for a $250 bill featuring President Trump, but current law forbids featuring living persons on currency and does not authorize a $250 denomination.
Also from this episode: (5)

Culture (1)

  • John Dvorak criticizes an Australian official's logic that a transgender woman could be discriminated against for 'potential pregnancy,' calling it an abandonment of basic biology for ideology.

AI & Tech (2)

  • John Dvorak highlights NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's vision for meter-free AI agents running on local PCs, which would disrupt the cloud-based subscription models of companies like OpenAI.
  • Citing commentator Ed Zitron, Dvorak argues the AI investment boom lacks measurable ROI, with companies like Anthropic facing scrutiny after starting to charge actual token rates to enterprise customers.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • A CNBC analyst stated data center financing requires $30 to $50 billion in debt, an amount the hosts characterize as an insane capital demand for an unproven ROI.

Markets (1)

  • John Dvorak reports egg prices dropped below $1 per dozen due to oversupply from rebuilt chicken flocks, despite increased American protein consumption.
#War#Diplomacy#Middle East#Israel#Corruption
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

6/4/26: Shawn Ryan Says Trump Duped Him, Ivanka Kushner Private Island, Rubio Confronted On Trump Falling Asleep • Jun 4

  • Shawn Ryan and Megyn Kelly publicly broke with Trump over his war with Iran and other policies, stating they felt 'duped' by his promises to avoid Middle East wars.
  • Trump’s presidency is weakening, evidenced by Senate Republicans blocking his $1 billion 'ballroom' funding request and abandoning his $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization fund' due to intra-party opposition.
  • The Trump administration reversed a sweeping immigration memo requiring green card applicants in the U.S. to leave the country, facing backlash from big tech and businesses.
  • Saagar argues Trump's unpopular war with Iran has destroyed his presidency, similar to how Iraq destroyed George W. Bush's political project, paralyzing his ability to advance other priorities.
  • Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner acquired a 1,400-hectare private island in Albania after meeting Prime Minister Edi Rama on Nat Rothschild's yacht; Albanian protests erupted over the perceived corrupt land deal.
  • Peter Thiel is decamping to Argentina, citing 'failed governance' and seeking a networked-state libertarian project, not simply California's billionaire tax.
  • Ken Clippenstein reports President Trump, now the oldest U.S. president at 79, frequently falls asleep in meetings; the White House disclosed he has chronic venous insufficiency.
  • Republican Congressman Tom Kean has been missing for three months with an undisclosed health issue; Speaker Mike Johnson claims he's 'working remotely' but cannot vote remotely.
  • Ken notes five members of Congress died in office this term, with many having known health issues before election, highlighting a systemic lack of health transparency for elected officials.
#War#Elections#Macro#Immigration#Corruption

6/3/26: Iran Bombs Kuwait, Hezbollah Hits IDF In Lebanon, Elections In California • Jun 3

  • During Senate testimony, Rubio claimed Cuba's economic crisis is due to a military holding company, GAESA, which controls 70% of GDP and sits on $14-17 billion in assets without contributing to the public treasury.
  • Grim points out Cuba, under decades of US sanctions, historically achieved better health and education outcomes than the United States, questioning narratives of pure economic mismanagement.
  • Josh Paul reveals a US Commission for heritage protection, funded with $770,000 annually, is backing Israel's City of David project in East Jerusalem, which has displaced over 1,500 Palestinians and demolished 100 homes.
  • Paul says the commission's chair is linked to defining criticism of Israel as antisemitism, and a board member appeared on a show pitching projects for illegal Israeli settlers.
  • Paul warns that Section 224 of the NDAA aims to deeply integrate Israeli military technology into the US defense industrial base, making future funding cuts impossible and flipping strategic leverage to Israel.
  • Paul notes the US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military aid, a figure he argues is politically unsustainable given shifting American public opinion.
  • In the Los Angeles mayoral race, Karen Bass leads with 34.8%, Spencer Pratt has 30.4%, and Nithya Raman has 22.3%, with many Democratic mail-in ballots still uncounted.
  • In California's gubernatorial primary, Steve Hilton leads with 27.8%, Javier Becerra has 25.4%, and Tom Steyer has 19.6%, with late Democratic ballots likely to reshape the top-two standings.
  • Progressive Adam Hamawy won a New Jersey House primary despite attacks linking him to a 1990s charity later associated with al-Qaeda; he is known for serving as a combat surgeon in Gaza under Israeli siege.
  • In Iowa, Zach Nunn defeated Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra in a House primary, marking a rare loss for Trump and a win for candidates seen as more ideologically aligned with MAGA grassroots.
  • In Montana, progressive union organizer Sam Forstag leads a Democratic House primary, challenging the establishment favorite and demonstrating the reach of populist-left campaigns.
Also from this episode: (1)

Elections (1)

  • Katie Porter lost her House reelection bid decisively, receiving only 4.6% of the vote, which Grim laments as a loss of an effective Wall Street critic from Congress.
#War#Diplomacy#Middle East#Regulation

6/1/26: US Bombs Iran, Jeff Sachs On WH Econ Lies, Artists Bail On Trump 250th Event • Jun 1

  • Trump's America 250th celebration has become a personal spectacle, with artists like Martina McBride and Millie Vanilli dropping out, leading Trump to propose replacing them with his own rally speech and hosting a UFC event on the White House lawn.
  • Saagar argues Trump's personalization of the presidency and office, including turning national celebrations into self-aggrandizing events and constructing a 'ballroom bunker', reflects an authoritarian tendency and a fear of being judged a disaster after his life.
Also from this episode: (6)

Macro (1)

  • Sachs critiques Kevin Hassett's optimistic economic analysis as false, noting consumer confidence has plummeted while the economy is bifurcated: a booming digital/war industry versus a suffering public with a 7% of GDP budget deficit.

Markets (1)

  • Credit card delinquency rates hit 13.12% in Q1 2024, the highest level in fifteen years since the post-2008 crisis, with consumers using cards for necessities, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

AI & Tech (3)

  • Sachs notes labor's share of national income has fallen from about 65% in the late 1970s to roughly 50% now, a shift driven by decades of automation now accelerated by AI, which substitutes for human labor and stagnates wages.
  • Sachs sees a financial bubble in big tech AI valuations, arguing open-source competition from China and unrealistic revenue expectations make 50x or 100x earnings multiples unjustified, atop a real trend of income shifting to profits.
  • Sachs frames AI as a general purpose technology like the steam engine, which raises overall output but dramatically redistributes it, risking 'misery' for parts of society without new institutions to share the gains, a need absent in current US policy.

Culture (1)

  • Krystal contrasts the reverence for founding history during the 150th anniversary in 1903 with today's 'bread and circus' culture, exemplified by the UFC event, seeing it as a reflection of a dumbed-down, socially disconnected nation.
#Macro#War#Inflation#AI Infrastructure#Elections