The United States can no longer call the shots in the Middle East. Days after President Trump publicly told Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran, Israeli warplanes struck a petrochemical plant in Masha’ar anyway. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti argued this direct defiance proves the U.S. now lacks either the capability or the political will to restrain its ally, moving the region further from any diplomatic off-ramp.
Trump attempted to manage the fallout by portraying Netanyahu as an outlier. An Axios report, discussed on No Agenda, detailed a call where Trump reportedly told the Prime Minister he was “effing crazy” for actions that “made the world hate Israel.” Host Adam Curry framed the leak as a deliberate tactic to channel anti-war sentiment toward Netanyahu personally, rather than the Israeli state, creating political space for Trump to demand a ceasefire. The goal, Curry noted, is to force a resolution before the conflict with Iran escalates beyond any control.
"Trump publicly told Netanyahu not to retaliate after Iran's strike, stating 'I call the shots,' but Israel retaliated anyway."
- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points
The security relationship is fraying from the inside. The Defense Intelligence Agency issued a seven-page memo detailing aggressive Israeli espionage, raising the counterintelligence threat level to “critical.” According to Enjeti, who spent hours confirming the details, the efforts included attempts to bug a Secret Service vehicle and install spyware on U.S. officials’ phones. Krystal Ball argued on Breaking Points that the spying is “unhinged” and reflects an adversarial posture where Israel would welcome U.S. casualties to guarantee American re-entry into a full-scale war.
Trump’s political foundation is cracking under the weight of the conflict. He abandoned his signature “no new wars” pledge in an interview, asking why else he would build a massive military. As Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti detailed, he is cornered by the economic consequences of his own blockade strategy, which has driven fertilizer prices toward record highs and kept gas prices elevated. During the interview, Trump first claimed farmers were doing great, then immediately admitted they were struggling for a “great cause.”
"Trump acknowledged rising fertilizer and gas prices to farmers but framed them as a necessary cost to disarm Iran."
- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points
The U.S. is now tethered to an escalation it cannot stop, providing the military shield for an ally that ignores its directives. The Pentagon has expressed concern that defending Israel has depleted America’s limited missile stockpile - a depletion that will take over five years to replace. With Trump’s negotiating team stacked with hawks and no direct talks with Iran, a credible deal is unlikely. The buffer that once prevented a direct regional war has evaporated.
