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AI & TECH

AI gutters entry-level jobs while boosting seniors

Thursday, July 2, 2026 · from 2 podcasts
BTC SessionsTFTC
  • AI is wiping out junior roles in law and finance, blocking career pipelines.
  • Senior professionals get more powerful, not replaced - widening the experience gap.
  • Blue-collar wages surge as AI’s physical buildout demands hands-on workers.

AI isn’t just changing work - it’s hollowing out the first rung of the ladder. On BTC Sessions, Joe Carlasare pointed out that entry-level analysts and associates are being pushed aside because large language models now handle research and drafting. That’s not just cost-cutting. It’s breaking the traditional path to expertise: do the grunt work, learn the craft, move up.

Now, there’s no grunt work to do. HODL compared this to the Industrial Revolution - efficiency gains led to new roles eventually, but not without chaos. Today’s firms are churning out 'vibe coding' and quick prototypes, but those projects often collapse without seasoned oversight. The result? A growing pile of technical debt cleaned up by the same senior people who can’t be automated.

"Junior people aren’t getting hired because the AI does the first draft, does the research. How do they learn?"

- Joe Carlasare, BTC Sessions

The next day, on TFTC, Peter St. Onge expanded the frame. The cubicle class - generalists with degrees but no specialized skills - is getting hit hardest. Think admin workers, mid-level government staff, psychology majors in HR. AI acts like a "Nobel committee in your pocket," he said, replacing broad, routine thinking with instant analysis.

But outside the office parks, the story flips. Blue-collar workers are winning. Construction, electricians, rig operators - jobs you can’t offshore or automate with software - are seeing wage growth not seen in 60 years. Building data centers, power plants, and server farms takes bodies on site. St. Onge calls it the "revenge of the blue collars."

"The roughnecks are winning. The trades are the ultimate hedge against agentic systems."

- Peter St. Onge, TFTC

The social ripple is real. St. Onge noted college-educated women increasingly marrying electricians over managers - stability now sits with the people who build things. Meanwhile, the Fed’s potential shift under Kevin Warsh could accelerate this divide. Selling off $7 trillion in balance sheet assets would target Wall Street wealth, not Main Street jobs, letting the industrial boom run without rate hikes.

The old career ladder is gone. AI didn’t just skip the bottom rung - it kicked it out.

#Agents#AI & Tech#Labor
Federal Reserve

Source Intelligence

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BTC Sessions
BTC Sessions

Fed Regime Change, Bitcoin Cycles, AI’s Real Impact | Jeff Ross, Joe Carlasare, HODL • Jun 30

Also from this episode: (60)

Other (60)

  • Joe Carlasare considers the recent FOMC meeting the most impactful since the Bernanke era, even more so than under Powell, due to significant policy shifts.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross projects a future where three dominant currency groups emerge: the US dollar system, the China ecosystem backed by gold, and Bitcoin as the growing "dark horse" in the 2030s.
  • HODL describes current market conditions as painful, feeling like a classic bear market bottom marked by widespread apathy and infighting.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross sees current market sentiment as typical bear market bottom behavior, anticipating a major rotation in assets heading into the summer.
  • Joe Carlasare identifies a massive paradigm shift at the Federal Reserve, noting their removal of forward guidance and complete rewriting of customary statements and market expectations.
  • Joe Carlasare highlights jawboning as the Fed's most powerful policy tool, cautioning that removing forward guidance could lead markets to "throw a tantrum."
  • Nathan observes a market downturn, with Bitcoin down 5%, NASDAQ down 1%, gold falling below $4,000, and silver dropping below $60.
  • Joe Carlasare suggests the Fed's reduced forward guidance reflects a view that monetary authorities should play a diminished role, with the Treasury and executive branch taking primary economic influence.
  • Joe Carlasare dismisses concerns about lost Fed independence, arguing the central bank has rarely been "purely independent" throughout American history.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross notes a significant dollar price action, with the DXY rising from below 99.60 to 101.63, indicating market seriousness about current events.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross explains that limited capital is currently flowing into AI, energy, and rare earths, creating a scarcity of dollars for assets like Bitcoin, which are left on the sidelines.
  • HODL describes personal financial pain, stating he is "half as rich" and noting inflation, citing a $37 Chipotle burrito bowl as an example.
  • Joe Carlasare interprets Fed Chair's comments about focusing on the "left of the decimal point" for the 2% inflation target as an openness to inflation rates of 2.7-2.9%, paving the way for lower rates.
  • HODL views SpaceX and recent IPOs of the last 6-10 years as primarily liquidity events for insiders due to excessively high valuations, with typical lockups around one year.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross observes that current Fed policy is reverting to Alan Greenspan's secretive, surprising style from the 1990s, which he personally prefers.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross is optimistic that the Fed will use its new policy approach to improve and expand its data sets, shifting from a historically backward-looking to a more forward-looking analysis.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross notes the US is reportedly allowing Iran to sell oil for dollars for the first time in decades, drawing parallels to the 1970s petrodollar agreement with Saudi Arabia.
  • HODL suggests the Trump administration was misled by Israeli intelligence regarding Iran, leading to an ill-prepared military engagement without the political will for a prolonged conflict.
  • HODL questions whether recent geopolitical events represent America's "Suez moment" of imperial decline, noting the US still commands the largest military force globally.
  • Joe Carlasare asserts the US economy is performing well and will strengthen, driven by deregulation, tax bills, and trillions of dollars in AI-related capital expenditure over the next 10 years.
  • Joe Carlasare points to strong economic indicators like three months of trending-up jobs data and an Atlanta Fed GDP projection of 3%, significantly above the 2% baseline for developed economies.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross confirms the US economy is doing well, specifically highlighting a robust manufacturing sector with new orders at a strong and accelerating 56.8.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross believes the US is shifting away from excessive financialization since the GFC, rotating back towards manufacturing and physical building, which he sees as beneficial for America.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross predicts a market rotation from overvalued AI and semiconductor companies into industrial sectors and base metals like steel, aluminum, and copper, which have been neglected for the last 10 years but could become "sexy" for the next five.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross draws parallels between the current economic environment and the 1970s, expecting hard assets to outperform financial assets.
  • HODL argues AI will create more jobs, not fewer, due to Jevons paradox; insecure AI-generated code necessitates new software engineers and has set cybersecurity standards back to 1998.
  • Joe Carlasare maintains a 40-0 record against GPT-drafted legal complaints, noting AI tools handle initial grunt work but never produce file-ready documents, thus reducing demand for entry-level legal positions.
  • Joe Carlasare argues that AI's impact on jobs and unprecedented medical advancements extending Boomer and Gen X lifespans over the next 10 years will exacerbate generational divides, requiring a societal restructuring of the social contract.
  • Joe Carlasare contends that future societal "revolutions" will stem from political issues rather than economic ones, contrary to many macro predictions.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross compares AI's potential impact on entry-level jobs to the challenging post-2008 Great Financial Crisis job market for millennials.
  • Joe Carlasare states that life expectancy hit a record high this year and is projected to increase, with more people living to 90 based on advancements observed over the last five years.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross attributes the success of GLP-1 drugs to their effect of inducing low-carb diets, arguing they are not miracle drugs but rather combat a "chronic carb toxicity culture" prevalent since the early 1980s.
  • HODL maintains that Bitcoin cycles are dead, arguing that if Bitcoin is merely a trading asset without long-term holding, it lacks a fundamental reason to exist.
  • HODL distinguishes the current gradual Bitcoin bull and bear markets from the dramatic "fab bam" cycle of 2017.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross notes market bitterness over the absence of an exponential move in Q4 2025, observing that the cycle ended in October and may not restart until October 2026.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross likens the current Bitcoin market downturn, driven by treasury companies' poor financial decisions, to the 2018 ICO bust and the 2022 centralized exchange bankruptcies.
  • Joe Carlasare contrasts the relentless 2018 Bitcoin sell-off, which broke below $6K, with the current market, noting prices are at the same level as February.
  • Joe Carlasare states that past Bitcoin bear markets experienced significantly deeper drawdowns, citing a 72% drop from November to June in 2022, which would equate to a $35,000 Bitcoin if repeated from October's peak.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross attributes the current less painful Bitcoin drawdown to a "wimpy blowoff top" experienced in Q4 2025.
  • Joe Carlasare emphasizes the difficulty of timing both the top and bottom of the market, questioning hypothetical buy points at $60K, $40K, or $30K.
  • HODL, a long-term Bitcoin holder, observes that Bitcoin often moves contrary to collective expectations; he believes a Q4 drawdown is unlikely given the amount of sidelined capital.
  • Joe Carlasare reports a "conspiracy theory" on Twitter claiming Michael Saylor's aggressive Bitcoin acquisition and financial engineering decisions are responsible for depressing Bitcoin's price action.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross believes the current market has bottomed, citing classic bear market sentiment indicators like widespread apathy, infighting, and general negativity observed in YouTube analytics.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross advises that historically, since 2015, buying Bitcoin at or below its 200-week moving average has proven to be a reliable, unregrettable decision.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross, initially a supporter of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury strategy for "milking Wall Street," now believes Saylor overextended, encouraging irresponsible behavior in other companies.
  • HODL theorizes that MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin sale was a "narrative violation" to break Michael Saylor's four-five year "never sell" stance, aiming to gain flexibility with lenders who otherwise held leverage over them.
  • Joe Carlasare clarifies that MicroStrategy sold 3,200 Bitcoin for tax benefits, not 32 Bitcoin as the host suggested.
  • HODL notes that MicroStrategy's "narrative violation" sale fueled speculation of a large Bitcoin dump, reminiscent of 2022 Grayscale conspiracy theories about missing coins.
  • Nathan points out that MicroStrategy's $2.5 million Bitcoin sale on June 1st preceded a 20% drop in Bitcoin price, suggesting it likely didn't help their leverage with lenders.
  • Nathan notes MicroStrategy's operating business generates $40-42 million monthly, but faces over $100 million in dividend obligations, indicating a need to transition beyond their Bitcoin-focused audience.
  • HODL admits to violating his own "never sell" narrative by selling some Bitcoin to take time off from work, but asserts his commitment to the asset remains unchanged.
  • Joe Carlasare states that since Trump's election in November 2024, MSDR has underperformed Bitcoin by 60%, unequivocally disproving the idea of it being a superior leveraged play.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross emphasizes that leverage is not a shortcut to Bitcoin wealth, asserting that $60K is already an amazing accumulation opportunity if Bitcoin eventually reaches millions of dollars.
  • Joe Carlasare highlights the volatility of leveraged products, noting that the Defiance Daily 2x Long MSTR ETF (MSTX) fell from approximately $7,800 in December 2024 to $9.
  • Nathan states Bitcoin is currently trading around $59,682, which is $2,000 to $3,000 below its 200-week moving average.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross anticipates a market rotation from semiconductor dominance in Q2 towards hard assets like gold and Bitcoin after summer, aligning with a renewed focus on the real economy.
  • HODL optimistically predicts a bullish Q4 for Bitcoin, projecting a return to all-time highs and rejecting prevailing bearish narratives.
  • Joe Carlasare announces his book "Unconfiscatable" will be released on Amazon on September 1st, 2026, predicting it will trigger an epic Bitcoin bull run.
  • Joe Carlasare recalls that the brutal 2018 Bitcoin market was followed by a 3x-4x rally from $4K to $13K in 2019, suggesting a similar FOMO catch-up rally could occur.
  • Joe Carlasare stresses that periods of depressed Bitcoin prices are optimal for accumulation, recalling past missed opportunities at $3,200-$6K and projecting future values of $200K-$300K within two years.
#Fed#Macro#BTC Markets#Labor
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

#764: Revenge Of The Blue Collars with Peter St. Onge • Jun 29

  • Peter St. Onge argues that robot automation progresses much slower than AI, illustrating with the "80 years for half of the factories to electrify" after the first US factory electrification around 1870. He explains existing capital will be utilized until worn out before costly robotic replacements are deployed.
  • Peter St. Onge praises Trump's hands-off, pro-AI approach as beneficial, drawing parallels to Bill Clinton's internet policy, but warns against government partnerships that could control information. He expresses optimism for the broader economy due to deregulation, including 450 major deregulations last year, and Trump's tax cuts which act as "rocket fuel" for investment via accelerated depreciation.
  • Peter St. Onge describes new Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as a former "hard money guy" who now favors easy money due to AI's deflationary potential, which he called "the greatest deflationary technology of our lifetimes." Peter supports Warsh's "Robin Hood monetary policy" to fight inflation by selling the Fed's $7 trillion balance sheet, without harming jobs. He advocates ending bailouts, citing the 1919-1921 "Forgotten Depression" as an example of letting businesses fail for economic health.
Also from this episode: (5)

BTC Markets (1)

  • Marty Bent observes many "number go up" Bitcoin investors are currently focused on AI, while Peter St. Onge argues AI has longer market legs than prior "stonks." Peter suggests Bitcoin's current "crab walk" is partly due to AI drawing market attention.

Markets (1)

  • Peter St. Onge, drawing on his dot-com experience, identifies AI semi stocks as being in a bubble due to rapid price increases but with lower valuations than dot-com. He cites Andrew Lo's research from NYU that bubble duration, not multiples, determines collapse, predicting another 1-1.5 years of "free money" in AI based on a dot-com overlay.

Enterprise (1)

  • Peter St. Onge distinguishes AI semi companies from dot-com firms, emphasizing they are "minting profits" with pricing power, unlike 1990s internet stocks that earned no collective profit. Marty Bent highlights AI's "unlimited appetite for compute" due to its ability to productively replace expensive labor, such as $40 of AI tokens replacing "three weeks of a Goldman Sachs analyst."

Models (1)

  • Peter St. Onge views AI as having "10x the impact" of the internet, acting as an expert resource comparable to Murray Rothbard or the Nobel Committee. He stresses that current AI is merely the "chatbot stage," the "first one percent" of its potential, citing its role in the 2024 Chemistry Nobel for protein folding and predicting quasi-immortality within 10 years.

Labor (1)

  • Peter St. Onge predicts AI will "gut" wages for "college-educated generalists" while creating a "blue collar renaissance" with the strongest wage growth in 60 years. He cites PwC estimates of 4.7 million construction jobs for AI data centers and notes that 84% of those most vulnerable to AI displacement are women in administrative roles.
#Fed#Macro#Labor#Markets#AI Infrastructure

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