The AI infrastructure boom is repeating the dot-com era’s mistakes - this time with data centers instead of fiber. Mark Cuban, on All-In, compared today’s rush to build hyperscale facilities to the 1990s dark fiber overbuild, where technological leaps rendered expensive cables nearly worthless overnight. If AI follows a similar price-performance curve, today’s multi-billion-dollar campuses could become obsolete.
The warning signs are already visible. Tyler Neville on Forward Guidance cited Morgan Stanley data showing the worst momentum sell-off in 27 years - a 3.3 standard deviation event that has broken market behavior. This isn’t a correction; it’s a structural unwind. While the Nasdaq drops, value stocks rise, signaling a violent rotation out of overvalued tech.
"If companies can get 80% of the performance of a top-tier model at 10% of the price, the massive spending plans of Big Tech are increasingly shaky."
- Felix Jauvin, Forward Guidance
The foundation of the AI capex wave is cracking. Felix Jauvin pointed to Qwen 3, an open-source Chinese model that matches frontier coding capabilities at a fraction of the cost. This shifts power from infrastructure builders to users. The firms printing 80% margins on chips and data centers now face competition not from better hardware, but from radically cheaper software.
Cuban sees the same pattern: massive borrowing to fund CAPEX, just as private credit strains. If utilization lags, debt will crush the specialized funds that bet on perpetual scarcity. "They’ll eventually be turned into pickleball courts," he joked - a punchline with real teeth.
The enterprise gap deepens the risk. Despite the hype, AI still needs armies of human engineers to function. As Cuban noted, if it were truly plug-and-play, Microsoft and OpenAI wouldn’t be deploying thousands of staff to keep it running. The technology is brittle, especially for routine tasks, making the ROI on giant data centers even harder to justify.
"The AI bubble is more contagious than 2000 due to extreme S&P 500 concentration, with tech representing over 40% Mag 7 and 20% semiconductors."
- Felix Jauvin, Forward Guidance
The market is already rotating. Investors aren’t fleeing tech - they’re fleeing the picks and shovels. The bet now is on efficiency, not expansion. Abundance, not scarcity, is the new narrative. And if history holds, the last ones holding the capex plans will be the ones left holding the bag.




