Nate Cohn polling shows Democrats leading in red states
- Soaring grocery and fuel costs are pushing working-class conservatives toward Democrats.
- New York Times polling puts Democratic candidates ahead in Texas and Alaska.
- Vulnerable candidates like Ken Paxton are losing moderate and Latino voters.
Partisan geography in conservative strongholds is unraveling ahead of the midterms.
By late September 2026, working-class conservatives faced severe economic pain. On Breaking Points, host Emily Jashinsky reported that self-identified Trump voters are abandoning Republicans over surging prices. Truckers reported spending $1,300 on diesel fuel every two days, while basic paper products quadrupled in cost within six months. Host Ryan Grim noted that generic ballot polling gives Democrats an eight to sixteen point lead, driven by voters who want to penalize Republicans for inflation even if they doubt Democratic policy.
The economic strain is translating into dramatic shifts on the map.
Five days later, The Daily detailed New York Times polling across five states Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024. In Texas, Democratic state representative James Talariko leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points. Mary Peltola holds a seven-point lead in Alaska, while Democratic candidates in Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa remain tied or ahead. Trump’s approval rating across these red states has plummeted to 40 percent as voters reject federal gridlock and living costs.
Candidate quality is widening the split. Talariko holds a 23-point character advantage over Paxton, who remains bogged down by federal investigations and Republican infighting. Crucially, Talariko commands over 60 percent of the Latino vote in Texas, reclaiming a demographic that shifted toward Trump in 2024. In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leverages his background as a pastor against incumbent Roger Marshall, who faces backlash over medical debt enforcement.
The pressure is forcing national Republicans into unexpected defense. In Nebraska, Donald Trump scheduled a late-September rally to shore up incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts against independent challenger Dan Osborne. Osborne built momentum in ag-heavy rural communities angered by beef imports and high energy costs, bypassing national cultural talking points to focus entirely on local economic pressures.
Yet Democratic momentum is not uniform nationwide. On The Daily, analysis showed blue states present distinct vulnerabilities for Democrats. In Maine, Republican incumbent Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson by three points despite Kamala Harris winning the state by seven points in 2024. In Michigan, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by five points but underperforms standard Democratic benchmarks among Black and older voters.
Control of the Senate will depend on whether red-state anger outpaces blue-state friction.