Lula wins a fourth term, facing a tough Congress

Elections (10)

• Juan David Rojas says polling missed the Brazilian runoff in both rounds: pollsters expected Lula to lead the first round, then some gave Flavio Bolsonaro a slight runoff advantage. He says runoff voters who had backed minor candidates shifted less to Bolsonaro than expected.
• Juan David Rojas credits Lula’s ground campaign and voter mobilization for the comeback, including PT rallies across five cities and a WhatsApp following that grew by 10 million between rounds. He says turnout rose after record first-round abstention, with some Bolsonaro voters also staying home.
• Rojas says voting irregularities in Bolsonaro-led cities included disrupted transport to PT areas and a two-hour extension ordered after polls had closed. He says machines already switched off could not be restarted, only about 30,000 people voted after the scheduled close, and the irregularities did not change the result.
• Rojas argues Trump’s tariffs helped Lula when his polling was weak, and suggests Trump avoided a formal endorsement of Flavio Bolsonaro because it might benefit Lula. He says Lula’s win was a rare left-of-center reelection victory in a region where other such parties had recently lost.
• Hasan says AIPAC has spent against Jewish politicians who criticized Netanyahu’s government, including liberal Zionist Daniel Biss, and against Palestinian-American candidate Kat Abu-Ghazala. He argues these interventions can backfire, citing AIPAC’s spending against Tom Malinowski that helped produce a more critical Israel policy candidate.
• Hasan says AIPAC’s United Democracy Project super PAC obscures its role through front groups, while the organization says it will stop directly giving to candidates. He estimates direct contributions at only a few million dollars, compared with tens of millions or possibly $100 million through the super PAC.
• Hasan says Democrats could bar outside groups from spending in their primaries even without overturning Citizens United. He argues such rules should cover the 2028 presidential primary and says Neera Tanden agreed in principle that outside groups should not intervene, but would not single out AIPAC.
• Hasan condemns Haley Stevens for declining to name or clearly endorse Abdul El-Sayed after previously endorsing him. He says her response came as Trump used racist and Islamophobic attacks against El-Sayed, and argues Democrats would have condemned a left-wing candidate for withholding support from a rival.
• The host says Michigan early voting showed stronger participation in counties carried by Kamala Harris than in counties carried by Trump. Hasan warns that polling has repeatedly missed races and that saturated attack ads can still shape voter perceptions, citing negative coverage of Green Party leader Zach Polanski in the UK.
• Hasan rejects the claim that El-Sayed is unelectable, citing his public speaking, charisma, local ties, and popular Medicare for All position. He argues opponents call El-Sayed divisive because he challenges powerful interests, while the campaign’s attacks focus on his Muslim identity and Israel rather than his policies.

Israel (1)

• Mehdi Hasan says the documentary examines whether AIPAC should register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which applies when a group coordinates with a foreign government. He cites past calls for registration and interviews with former officials and a former AIPAC lobbyist who says he passed classified Pentagon information to Israel’s embassy.

Corruption (1)

• The host cites reporting that Mike Rogers’s second wife, Christy Clemons Rogers, moved from political work into defense contracting and later secured major contracts while Rogers chaired House Intelligence. Rogers and his wife deny wrongdoing; Rogers threatened to sue Drop Site over its reporting.

Media (1)

• Hasan says mainstream coverage scrutinized Abdul El-Sayed far more than Mike Rogers, including Rogers’s past support for aid to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government and his statement that moderate Brotherhood members could be partners. He also criticizes Rogers for evading questions about whether he is MAGA or would support Trump’s agenda.

Elections (7)

• Lula energized the runoff campaign with large rallies and costly pledges, including a shorter work week without pay cuts, free weekend public transport, debt forgiveness for sole traders, and $1,000 payments for a million micro-entrepreneurs.
• Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would seek to annul the result after the Supreme Court extended voting hours because of bad weather and transport disruptions. The bureau chief calls annulment unlikely, while noting the right won the largest caucuses in both houses of Congress.
• Lula faces a hostile Congress, term limits that bar another run, and a weak economy. The bureau chief says government debt rose by more than 10 percentage points of GDP during Lula’s previous four years, while high real interest rates reflect market concerns about spending.
• The U.S. midterm campaign was framed as a close fight for Senate control, with races in Iowa and Maine drawing attention. Texas Republicans were defending seats despite the state’s deep-red reputation and the national drag from Donald Trump’s unpopularity.
• Rebecca Jackson says Texas Republicans were alarmed by Democrat James Tallarico’s challenge to Senate candidate Ken Paxton and by the governor’s close race. Republicans spent heavily to protect Paxton, whose record includes a federal securities-fraud investigation and impeachment by his own party over dealings with a donor.
• Jackson says affordability displaced immigration as the top voter concern after border encounters fell under Trump, while opposition to data centers weakened the appeal of Texas’s economic boom. Republican rallies instead drew energy from promises to fight Sharia law and restrict the influence of foreigners.
• Jackson reports that Frisco’s rapid growth made immigration and identity a flashpoint, but a mayoral candidate who campaigned on nativist messages lost by 16 points. A third of residents are Asian, and the share identifying as Hindu roughly tripled as the Dallas area expanded.

Climate (1)

• The bureau chief says Lula’s win reduces the immediate threat to the Amazon: deforestation had fallen under Lula, while signs of fire doubled as illegal loggers and ranchers anticipated a Bolsonaro victory and wildcat miners threatened Indigenous leaders.

Immigration (1)

• Texas officials targeted Muslim institutions and legal immigrants: Abbott tried to block a Plano mosque’s development, Paxton sought to exclude Muslim schools from school vouchers, and Abbott froze H-1B applications at state agencies and universities. Paxton also opened investigations into 30 firms over foreign-worker allegations.

Enterprise (2)

• Lizzie Peet says branded merchandise has expanded beyond entertainment and sports into businesses such as OpenAI and Palantir. Oxford Economics estimates global merchandise spending at $350 billion a year; Harry Styles fans spent about £100 each on merchandise during the London leg of his tour.
• Peet says merchandise gives companies a low-cost way to build brand personality and reach customers, even when sales are not a major revenue stream. A tote bag can cost about a dollar to make, while viral products such as Trader Joe’s bags extend a brand far beyond its stores.

Society (1)

• Peet links merchandise demand to both the pandemic-era need for local businesses to raise money and consumers’ desire to signal personal taste, travel, and community. Niche branded items can help people feel connected to strangers with similar interests in an increasingly digital and socially isolated life.