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Diesel supply remains vulnerable to Middle East conflict, with disruption expected to last well into 2027. John Arnold points to attacks around the Gulf and on Aramco facilities, while oil-product demand in the United States has not yet fallen.
The host says attacks on oil-related vessels have spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz, including an oil tanker hit by an RPG and a tugboat struck by two projectiles. Brett Erickson estimates 3 to 7 vessels are being hit daily despite a 96-hour gap in UKMTO reports of normal vessels struck.
The State Department warned Americans in the Middle East about flight disruptions, airspace closures, and possible attacks on U.S.-linked sites worldwide. The warning cited Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian airports and the risk that hostilities could escalate beyond the immediate area.
Egyptian defense officials pledged support for Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks, while Egypt’s lawmakers must authorize any troop deployment. The host says Egypt may provide defensive or missile support rather than strike Yemen directly; the co-host argues U.S. and Saudi aid helped draw Egypt in.
The co-host says Saudi Arabia’s security crisis threatens its investment and sports-washing plans, including its upcoming “Davos in the Desert” event. The host says financial-district workers have shifted home as the Saudi wealth fund, stock exchange, and financial institutions face potential asymmetric attacks.
Ghalibaf announced a Persian Gulf Data Authority and warned against financing companies that support attacks on Iran. The host read the move as a possible restriction on regional business; the co-host understood it as a threat to strike data centers and communications infrastructure.
A Wall Street Journal report says Iranian support helped the Houthis improve targeting, missiles, drones, intelligence, and training; the Houthis now control coastline near Bab al-Mandeb. The host argues the campaign lets Iran disrupt Gulf rivals and raise oil prices without direct U.S. attacks.
Israeli settlers severely injured Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine in the West Bank; the co-host cited broken fingers, a rib, vertebrae, and lacerations. Israeli officials initially questioned the account, while Huckabee and Rubio called for investigation; Israeli authorities later reported arrests.
Garrison Davis described an IRGC letter urging Americans to vote, arguing that voters empower the government and that “Death to America” targets the ruling elite, not ordinary people. The letter praised Gaza protests and No Kings rallies as signs of political awakening.
Chamath Palihapitiya called power and powered land a key AI moat, citing a projected U.S. electricity shortfall that could block new data centers and constrain startups relying on hyperscalers. The panel also said regional conflict and weak drone defenses make Middle Eastern data-center plans more vulnerable.
Dixon describes Iran's leverage as a mix of state power, the IRGC, regional armed groups, and control of strategic routes; he expects eventual negotiations with Gulf states and the US-hosted financial system. He links Iran's modern conflict with Western powers to oil nationalization, the 1953 coup, and the 1979 revolution.
Dixon argues that military contractors need both ongoing conflicts and new markets, and sees Europe building an independent military-industrial base as Middle East tensions change. He also describes Central and South America as a possible new arena for Western military and technology influence.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is constrained by ships and repair capacity: oil analyst Rory Johnson put the global VLCC fleet at about 950, while attacks and months-long repairs threaten the flow of fuel.
Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine said masked settlers beat her while she covered olive harvesting in Abu Falah; the hosts said the IDF protected settlers rather than farmers and journalists, and the Post called for an investigation.
Quinn expects renewed escalation involving Iran and says oil-market news is underreported in Western outlets. Quinn cites tankers being struck in the Strait of Hormuz and warns that geopolitical events, election messaging, and market volatility could intensify ahead of the midterms.
Saagar Enjeti says Trump’s proposed MOAB strike would be a propaganda move: the GBU-43B attacks surface targets, not bunkers, and can devastate about nine city blocks. Enjeti says the bomb’s use in Afghanistan failed to change the war’s outcome.
Saagar Enjeti says Iran is disrupting Hormuz shipping with attacks that do not require sophisticated targeting: spotters in small boats can relay coordinates after US strikes destroy radar systems. More than 20 attacks have been reported, including ships sunk or hit by projectiles.
Krystal Ball says Iran may be earning money by allowing some oil shipments through Hormuz for a fee, while Amos Hochstein argues that US claims of control ignore the cost of keeping shipping moving. Saagar Enjeti says freight costs have reached $35 per barrel.
Saagar Enjeti reports that Houthi strikes have sharply damaged Riyadh’s airport and prompted airlines to evacuate aircraft. He cites 300 civilians injured, at least 14 killed, and $400 million in aircraft damage still on the ground.
Saagar Enjeti argues that attacks are undermining Saudi Arabia’s strategy of buying global prestige through sports, tourism, and high-profile events. Krystal Ball says the damage threatens MBS’s political position and the kingdom’s dependence on migrant workers and luxury spending.
Trita Parsi argues that blaming Benjamin Netanyahu will not fix Israel’s strategic direction because the underlying problem is structural. He says US protection has shielded Israel from the consequences of its policies, and a change in leadership could only disguise the problem temporarily.
Krystal and Saagar say Kamala Harris’s acknowledgment that the Biden administration should have acted sooner and more forcefully over Gaza is a cautious break that avoids calling the war a genocide or addressing her administration’s responsibility.
Jim Rickards says the Iran war lacks a workable exit: Iran is too large to invade, killing senior leaders has not changed the regime, and air power alone cannot force regime change. He compares the problem to Vietnam, where a decade of bombing failed to win the war.
Dixon expects a negotiated, regional order rather than a global war: Iran may trade sanctions relief for regional concessions, while Russia and Gulf states seek new arrangements. He describes the escalation as bounded and says the Strait of Hormuz's future will shape the next order.
Carlson says war makes societies more tolerant of civilian deaths and less empathetic toward victims. He faults Donald Trump for deflecting questions about a U.S. strike that reportedly killed more than 100 Iranian schoolgirls, and says leaders’ victim narratives can excuse cruelty.
OpenAI reported no evidence that Al-Fozan accessed or removed model weights, source code, or customer data. Chris McGuire says the counterintelligence investigation and Al-Fozan’s Saudi ties could damage US-Saudi AI cooperation; McGuire urges frontier labs to assume espionage attempts are already underway.
Rogan called the Iran war a costly quagmire and said the case for intervention had not matched events on the ground. Douglas questioned why Western and Israeli intelligence had not anticipated Iran’s response, while Rogan said the outcome of the war and its diplomatic path remained unclear.
Ryan Grim said Ansar Allah forces had encircled Taiz and controlled territory where roughly 70% of Yemen’s population lives; UAE-linked forces held most of the rest, while Saudi forces had been driven out. A Saudi-backed push down the coast failed to hold territory and lost armored vehicles.
After Saudi strikes on oil depots in Hodeidah and Sana’a, Ansar Allah struck Saudi Aramco’s headquarters; Saudi Arabia reported minor damage, while Hussein al-Bukhari described heavy damage. The attacks disrupted a Saudi oil conference, and Mohammed bin Salman reportedly canceled air-raid sirens.
Ryan Grim argued that Saudi Arabia cannot defeat Ansar Allah after more than a decade of war and that U.S. intervention risks renewed disruption of Red Sea shipping. He said Trump may avoid helping Mohammed bin Salman, whose weakening position could make him more dangerous and expose U.S. financial and political ties to the Saudi leadership.