Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight widens Brazil’s election fight

Elections (5)

• Noga Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats but lost ground, leaving his bloc short of a government; the opposition has a majority on paper, but may lack the leverage to form one.
• Tarnopolsky says opposition voters favor governing with Arab parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List; she cites an exit poll showing this, and says even about 45% of Netanyahu voters accepted Arab participation in government.
• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu and Likud pushed anti-Arab messages throughout election day, including an AI-manipulated image already debunked by Fake Reporter; about 10% of votes from temporary polling sites remained uncounted.
• The House Democratic report alleges Trump participated in Epstein’s abuse of young women and says federal officials suppressed evidence; Emily says the report links earlier allegations to Epstein, while Ryan Grimm recommends a special counsel led by Thomas Massie.
• Democrats are using Epstein-file votes in Senate ads, arguing Republicans protected donors and concealed abuse; Ryan Grimm says the issue can mobilize Democrats and independents while depressing Republican turnout, and cited at least $20 million in Senate ad spending.

Israel (2)

• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu has sought another conflict with Iran and could use his caretaker period to expand Israeli action in Gaza; she sees continued West Bank violence as likely, despite limits on a caretaker prime minister’s powers.
• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu normalized anti-Arab rhetoric: election-day campaigning she describes as illegal drew only a small fine in an earlier cycle, while cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had 13 hate-crime and terror convictions.

Corruption (2)

• Rojas says Brazil’s Supreme Court has amassed outsized authority: individual justices can investigate, rule, and direct police enforcement. He argues that court power has become politicized and that reform is needed, citing a reported $50 million payment to Moraes from a banker tied to figures across political camps.
• The report adds a rape allegation from Swiss model Beatrice Kuehl, who says Trump promised visa and NYU help before assaulting her; Emily notes that James Patterson’s 2017 book had already discussed Epstein’s NYU connections, challenging the report’s claim that the link was not public.

Censorship (1)

• Rojas condemns censorship and due-process violations regardless of which side benefits, while saying Bolsonaro’s coup effort was serious; he cited military chiefs’ testimony that Bolsonaro sought a coup, alongside cases of people jailed without trial.

Society (2)

• The report also recounts allegations from Stacey Williams, Jill Harth, and Ivana Trump, plus claims involving underage girls; the accounts differ in severity, and Harth later called her allegations embellished and said she might vote for Trump.
• Other accounts in the report describe Maxwell presenting women to Trump, Epstein’s birthday-book joke about selling a 20-year-old to Trump for $22,500, Maria Farmer’s account of Trump mistaking her for a younger girl, and a Russian model’s later flight with Maxwell and Prince Andrew.

Elections (9)

• Juan David Rojas says polling missed the Brazilian runoff in both rounds: pollsters expected Lula to lead the first round, then some gave Flavio Bolsonaro a slight runoff advantage. He says runoff voters who had backed minor candidates shifted less to Bolsonaro than expected.
• Juan David Rojas credits Lula’s ground campaign and voter mobilization for the comeback, including PT rallies across five cities and a WhatsApp following that grew by 10 million between rounds. He says turnout rose after record first-round abstention, with some Bolsonaro voters also staying home.
• Rojas argues Trump’s tariffs helped Lula when his polling was weak, and suggests Trump avoided a formal endorsement of Flavio Bolsonaro because it might benefit Lula. He says Lula’s win was a rare left-of-center reelection victory in a region where other such parties had recently lost.
• Hasan says AIPAC has spent against Jewish politicians who criticized Netanyahu’s government, including liberal Zionist Daniel Biss, and against Palestinian-American candidate Kat Abu-Ghazala. He argues these interventions can backfire, citing AIPAC’s spending against Tom Malinowski that helped produce a more critical Israel policy candidate.
• Hasan says AIPAC’s United Democracy Project super PAC obscures its role through front groups, while the organization says it will stop directly giving to candidates. He estimates direct contributions at only a few million dollars, compared with tens of millions or possibly $100 million through the super PAC.
• Hasan says Democrats could bar outside groups from spending in their primaries even without overturning Citizens United. He argues such rules should cover the 2028 presidential primary and says Neera Tanden agreed in principle that outside groups should not intervene, but would not single out AIPAC.
• Hasan condemns Haley Stevens for declining to name or clearly endorse Abdul El-Sayed after previously endorsing him. He says her response came as Trump used racist and Islamophobic attacks against El-Sayed, and argues Democrats would have condemned a left-wing candidate for withholding support from a rival.
• The host says Michigan early voting showed stronger participation in counties carried by Kamala Harris than in counties carried by Trump. Hasan warns that polling has repeatedly missed races and that saturated attack ads can still shape voter perceptions, citing negative coverage of Green Party leader Zach Polanski in the UK.
• Hasan rejects the claim that El-Sayed is unelectable, citing his public speaking, charisma, local ties, and popular Medicare for All position. He argues opponents call El-Sayed divisive because he challenges powerful interests, while the campaign’s attacks focus on his Muslim identity and Israel rather than his policies.

Israel (1)

• Mehdi Hasan says the documentary examines whether AIPAC should register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which applies when a group coordinates with a foreign government. He cites past calls for registration and interviews with former officials and a former AIPAC lobbyist who says he passed classified Pentagon information to Israel’s embassy.

Corruption (1)

• The host cites reporting that Mike Rogers’s second wife, Christy Clemons Rogers, moved from political work into defense contracting and later secured major contracts while Rogers chaired House Intelligence. Rogers and his wife deny wrongdoing; Rogers threatened to sue Drop Site over its reporting.

Media (1)

• Hasan says mainstream coverage scrutinized Abdul El-Sayed far more than Mike Rogers, including Rogers’s past support for aid to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government and his statement that moderate Brotherhood members could be partners. He also criticizes Rogers for evading questions about whether he is MAGA or would support Trump’s agenda.

Elections (7)

• The Brazil bureau chief says Lula rebuilt his campaign for the runoff around social media: he posted Instagram selfie videos, while evangelical congressman Andrei Janons organized a WhatsApp channel that recruited members to repost pro-Lula content.
• Lula energized the runoff campaign with large rallies and costly pledges, including a shorter work week without pay cuts, free weekend public transport, debt forgiveness for sole traders, and $1,000 payments for a million micro-entrepreneurs.
• The Brazil bureau chief says Lula benefited from higher runoff turnout and renewed scrutiny of Bolsonaro. A televised debate on October 23 revisited a case involving a five-year-old girl, and Bolsonaro confused the child’s name with her mother’s, alienating some voters.
• The U.S. midterm campaign was framed as a close fight for Senate control, with races in Iowa and Maine drawing attention. Texas Republicans were defending seats despite the state’s deep-red reputation and the national drag from Donald Trump’s unpopularity.
• Rebecca Jackson says Texas Republicans were alarmed by Democrat James Tallarico’s challenge to Senate candidate Ken Paxton and by the governor’s close race. Republicans spent heavily to protect Paxton, whose record includes a federal securities-fraud investigation and impeachment by his own party over dealings with a donor.
• Jackson says affordability displaced immigration as the top voter concern after border encounters fell under Trump, while opposition to data centers weakened the appeal of Texas’s economic boom. Republican rallies instead drew energy from promises to fight Sharia law and restrict the influence of foreigners.
• Jackson reports that Frisco’s rapid growth made immigration and identity a flashpoint, but a mayoral candidate who campaigned on nativist messages lost by 16 points. A third of residents are Asian, and the share identifying as Hindu roughly tripled as the Dallas area expanded.

Climate (1)

• The bureau chief says Lula’s win reduces the immediate threat to the Amazon: deforestation had fallen under Lula, while signs of fire doubled as illegal loggers and ranchers anticipated a Bolsonaro victory and wildcat miners threatened Indigenous leaders.

Immigration (1)

• Texas officials targeted Muslim institutions and legal immigrants: Abbott tried to block a Plano mosque’s development, Paxton sought to exclude Muslim schools from school vouchers, and Abbott froze H-1B applications at state agencies and universities. Paxton also opened investigations into 30 firms over foreign-worker allegations.

Enterprise (2)

• Lizzie Peet says branded merchandise has expanded beyond entertainment and sports into businesses such as OpenAI and Palantir. Oxford Economics estimates global merchandise spending at $350 billion a year; Harry Styles fans spent about £100 each on merchandise during the London leg of his tour.
• Peet says merchandise gives companies a low-cost way to build brand personality and reach customers, even when sales are not a major revenue stream. A tote bag can cost about a dollar to make, while viral products such as Trader Joe’s bags extend a brand far beyond its stores.

Society (1)

• Peet links merchandise demand to both the pandemic-era need for local businesses to raise money and consumers’ desire to signal personal taste, travel, and community. Niche branded items can help people feel connected to strangers with similar interests in an increasingly digital and socially isolated life.