Netanyahu calls Arab votes stolen as coalition deadlock deepens

BTC Markets (5)

• The host argues Bitcoin benefits when central banks devalue fiat currencies, while the current market remains range-bound around $79,000 to $81,500.
• The host reported Bitcoin at $81,370, a $1.64 trillion market cap, and 1,293 transactions in Clark’s mempool; mempool.space showed 57,846 unconfirmed transactions.
• Jason Calacanis predicts Bitcoin will never set another all-time high and says investors should favor AI; the host counters that Bitcoin is money and can coexist with AI investments.
• The hosts cite sharp declines in Brazilian assets after Lula’s victory and argue that Bitcoin self-custody can protect savings from currency and political risk; they also warn Brazil’s PIX and planned Drex enable more state oversight.
• The host says Bitcoin-backed loan rates are falling as lending capital grows, and argues that rates below home-equity credit would make Bitcoin more attractive collateral because lenders can liquidate it continuously.

Inflation (1)

• The host says Trump’s stated willingness to tolerate high inflation strengthens Bitcoin’s monetary case, while AI-driven productivity does not remove the need to store wealth in hard money.

Startups (1)

• The hosts disagree on Anthropic’s prospects: one expects AI firms to face a shakeout, while the other says its S-1 looked stronger than feared and argues missing Q3 figures reflect filing deadlines.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Paul Kedrosky’s bear case is that projected AI infrastructure spending needs enormous revenue to earn an adequate return; he also argues frontier labs must assess how many customers need frontier-level models.

Safety (3)

• The hosts flag Anthropic’s concentrated control as a governance concern: its team retains majority ownership, while a five-person trust appoints the board despite the company’s stated risk of catastrophic harm.
• The host says scammers recruit teenagers through Roblox and Discord to call victims and steal Bitcoin, sometimes with Russian involvement; the host urges people not to answer unknown callers.
• Coinbase tested five leading models with 16 agents against Bitcoin Core code and found two minor issues; the hosts say AI-assisted review supports faster patching, while warning developers not to surrender independent judgment.

Elections (2)

• Brazil’s election drew allegations of irregularities: the host says voting hours were extended in Lula-favorable districts and Flavio Bolsonaro faced pressure to remain in Brazil, while acknowledging the reports were unconfirmed.
• The host treats Senator Alex Padilla’s call to investigate Elon Musk without citing a specific crime as a warning sign of political targeting, and says socialist proposals in New York will face budget and implementation limits.

Models (1)

• Lula promised sovereign Brazilian AI powered by domestic renewable energy; the host questions whether Brazil can create the economic conditions to deliver it and warns that state-controlled AI could shape permitted information.

Protocol (2)

• Bitcoin Core disclosed two denial-of-service vulnerabilities involving unbounded memory growth; both were patched, and the hosts urged node operators to update while describing the flaws as medium severity.
• Layer 2 Labs delayed its eCash fork-related release after Bitcoin Core’s vulnerability fixes and told node and pool operators to update before the fork point; the hosts support testing drivechains but dispute their proposed economics and trust assumptions.

Privacy (1)

• The hosts discussed PISA, a regtest prototype combining PayJoin with cross-input signature aggregation to make transaction ownership harder to infer; PayJoin, Lightning, and ecash already offer privacy tools, while PISA would require a soft fork for mainnet.

Coding (1)

• A GitHub deletion removed private forks of a startup’s repository after Anthropic acquired the original owner; the startup recovered its code from an employee’s laptop, exposing the risk of relying on a hosted repository alone.

Custody (1)

• Google previewed an MPC custody service for financial institutions, with key shares held in separate hardware enclaves; the hosts see it as Fireblocks competition but stress that Google’s coordination layer differs from native Bitcoin multisig and FROST.

Markets (1)

• The hosts connect institutional custody and tokenization efforts to always-on markets: ICE invested in Trade.xyz, a Hyperliquid-based derivatives venue, while Stan Druckenmiller’s first tweet promoted Hyperliquid.

Regulation (1)

• The host says Fairshake remains active in election spending and Senator Bill Hagerty continues to push market-structure legislation; the host also notes a Thai court ruling that Bitcoin can be owned, transferred, and stolen as property.

Social Media (1)

• The hosts warn that algorithm-driven posts about grid shutdowns and election emergencies can amplify panic; one host recalls New York blackouts becoming dangerous after the first day, while acknowledging the city has handled outages before.

Media (1)

• The hosts briefly discussed Kanye West’s apology op-ed and uncertainty about which venues will book his tour; they also recalled seeing Daft Punk and speculated that the group could reunite for a lucrative tour.

Society (1)

• The host argues that women resent Sydney Sweeney’s ability to command attention through her looks, while the guest notes that fame can leave Sweeney constantly judged for her appearance. The host also says Sweeney’s football-themed ad and gambling-app association lean into that attention.

Regulation (2)

• The host defends recreational betting as a personal choice and argues that addiction calls for impulse control rather than a blanket ban; the guest says phone-based gambling can turn a sports bet into hours of casino play. They also discuss legalizing drugs to reduce the risk of fentanyl-contaminated supplies.
• The host and guest describe Sunday alcohol restrictions as inconsistent: Texas package stores cannot sell liquor on Sundays, while restaurants can serve alcohol with food from 10 a.m. They contrast these rules with Ireland’s late-night pub culture and early houses that served workers finishing overnight shifts.

Comedy (11)

• The guest says Ireland’s comedy scene has few purpose-built clubs and limited earning potential, though audiences can be intensely responsive. He describes Tommy Tiernan losing American touring support after a Hitler joke, staying in Ireland, and later hosting a television interview show.
• The host says stand-up material needs constant revision because repeating a bit can turn a live performance into recitation. The guest describes working through an unstable new premise, while the host praises Patrice O’Neal’s improvisational style and the way the same material changed across performances.
• The host credits Opie & Anthony with pioneering podcast-style conversation: although it was a radio show, comedians could bring friends and talk freely, unlike Howard Stern’s structured interviews.
• The host says Anthony Cumia’s historical knowledge added depth to Opie & Anthony conversations. The speakers describe daily, unhurried sessions where a group could stay on one subject for up to an hour and a half.
• The guest recalls listening to recordings of Patrice O’Neal on Opie & Anthony through Spotify while driving trucks; the relaxed, slow-moving conversations stood out from podcasts that rush between jokes.
• The guest says an unplanned Kill Tony spot drew more feedback than almost anything else he had done, including messages from cousins he had not spoken with in years.
• The speakers say Anthony Cumia and Jim Norton now have a podcast and had appeared as guests on Kill Tony; the episode was due out that week.
• The host recalls Jeremy Clarkson hanging out backstage at Kill Tony after Jimmy Carr introduced them; Carr was a guest on the panel.
• The guest once heckled Jimmy Carr during a theater Q&A in Ireland by asking for a photo, then insulting Carr’s head; Carr fired back and the crowd turned on the heckler.
• The guest wanted to do comedy at 16 after seeing TV specials and assumed he could write an hour and go straight to television. He learned about open mics from a TV feature six years later.
• The guest’s new special, “Bells and Whistles,” is available on YouTube and was filmed at New York Comedy Club.

Media (1)

• The host and guest discuss Kanye West’s antisemitic statements and songs alongside his return to major live audiences. The host says Adidas ended its partnership with West at a cost of billions, while the guest describes West’s song about childhood sexual experiences with his cousin as unusually personal.

Psychology (2)

• The host argues that appearance-based status shapes women’s reactions to Sydney Sweeney, then criticizes cosmetic fillers and Botox for distorting faces and requiring corrective procedures. He also raises concerns about self-identification policies in women’s prisons, while acknowledging that gender dysphoria can cause real distress.
• The guest describes solo hiking as a way to quiet mental noise and disconnect from phones; the host says time outdoors can restore perspective. They discuss Big Bend stargazing, birding, dangerous wildlife, and the guest’s plan to hike Yellowstone’s remote Thoroughfare.

History (1)

• The guest connects Irish sympathy for Palestinians to a cultural tradition of siding with people he sees as oppressed. He describes the Great Famine as worsened by British land and food policies, while the host notes that food exports continued even as starving people lacked the means to obtain food.

War (1)

• The host calls the Gulf of Tonkin incident fabricated and says it helped justify U.S. escalation in Vietnam; he also links Jim Morrison’s father to the incident. The conversation turns to graphic death footage, which both speakers say has become routine online and may desensitize viewers.

Privacy (1)

• The host says smartphones, connected devices, and opaque terms of service expose users’ data to companies; he singles out an older version of TikTok’s terms as allowing access across a shared network. The speakers also argue that television news relies on dramatic presentation and advertiser relationships, including pharmaceutical advertising.

Health (1)

• The host says pharmaceutical companies use television advertising to discourage critical coverage of drug risks, citing Purdue Pharma’s marketing as part of a wider industry pattern. He also says Jordan Peterson’s Xanax dependence required a year of recovery and medical detox in Russia, while fame and public conflict added pressure.

Social Media (1)

• The speakers discuss a reported 425 selfie-related deaths across 49 countries since 2011 and the risks of taking photos near cliffs or wildlife. They also recall Pennsylvania politician Budd Dwyer, who delivered a long speech before killing himself while facing a possible 55-year sentence.

Elections (1)

• The host reads Donald Trump’s attack on Bill Maher as evidence of Trump’s combative, highly personal political style. Trump’s post claims 98 to 99 percent Republican support and more than 20,000 illegal votes found in California; the host and guest treat those figures as Trump’s assertions, not verified facts.

Markets (1)

• The host says Trump’s estimated wealth rose after the 2024 election and argues that political memecoins can provide a channel for money to reach public figures. He describes a civil lawsuit alleging foreign-government-linked benefits through World Liberty Financial, while noting that the alleged transaction values are not Trump’s personal profit.

Biology (1)

• The host argues that regulated hunting can support wildlife management and conservation funding, citing taxes on firearms and archery gear. He says hunters help monitor populations and deter poaching, while describing the difficulty of bowhunting and the physical work of packing out an elk.

Iran (3)

• The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. warnings to Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly targeting energy infrastructure. Axios reported Qatar’s proposal for UN inspections in exchange for limited sanctions relief; Iran rejected the terms.
• The host argued that Netanyahu’s caretaker status and Trump’s anticipated midterm losses could make renewed war more attractive to both leaders. The host said JD Vance had contacted Iranian officials, but judged a deal unlikely.
• A host cited oil above $110 per barrel and forecast national gasoline prices of at least $4.30 per gallon on Election Day, warning that renewed strikes could push prices higher.

Israel (1)

• The Jerusalem Post reported that Trump wants Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich removed from Israel’s government because settler violence undermines his regional vision. The host said Netanyahu could not form a government without them.

Elections (6)

• Abdul El-Sayed said polls showed him leading Michigan’s Senate race by six or seven points, but he was campaigning as if ten points behind. He said voters focused on affordability, health care, corruption, and political chaos.
• Abdul El-Sayed said Michigan voters described spending $80 to fill a tank and struggling to afford groceries. He pointed to rising insurance premiums and utility rates, and blamed Trump’s tariffs, Iran war, and health-care cuts for worsening household costs.
• Haley Stevens reaffirmed support for Abdul El-Sayed but said she would not campaign with him; her fiancé endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. Abdul said his coalition includes voters opposing Trump, the Iran war, tariffs, and limits on rights and health care.
• Abdul El-Sayed said seniors facing rising property taxes often rely on their children to keep their homes, while also backing more housing, zoning reform, and limits on speculation and short-term rentals. He blamed federal disinvestment for shifting infrastructure costs onto local taxpayers.
• Republicans and RFK Jr. attacked Abdul El-Sayed’s Muslim and Arab identity; RFK Jr. claimed Arabs produce no major scientific or literary achievements. Abdul, who said he holds two doctoral degrees and has published scientific research, called the remarks self-revealing bigotry.
• A poll cited by Krystal found 38% of voters would be less likely to support a Muslim candidate. Abdul El-Sayed said he expects Michigan voters to reject religious smears and focus instead on jobs, health care, clean air and water, and housing costs.

Immigration (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed said Biden and Harris should have enforced tougher border security and better tracked who entered the country. He distinguished border enforcement by Customs and Border Protection from ICE’s internal enforcement, which he said Trump has weaponized against the Constitution.

Health (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed defended access to health care as a rights issue, saying treatment decisions should rest with patients, doctors, and parents for minors. He called “defund the police” an inadequate slogan and backed law-enforcement staffing alongside behavioral-health response and violence-prevention programs.

AI Infrastructure (2)

• Abdul El-Sayed said data centers and AI raise both utility costs and control concerns, especially for young people and rural communities. He proposed democratic oversight, an AI regulator, limits on AI firing workers or denying care, union construction, water protections, and community power to reject projects.
• The host said a New Mexico hospital system had been hacked and noted Bill Gates’s warning that humanity may face its most chaotic 20 years. The transcript gave no details about the cyberattack or Gates’s reasoning.

Regulation (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed opposed banning sports betting but favored sharply limiting its advertising, placement, and ties to sports entertainment to reduce gambling harms. He said restrictions should protect people with problem gambling from targeted marketing.

Israel (1)

• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu has sought another conflict with Iran and could use his caretaker period to expand Israeli action in Gaza; she sees continued West Bank violence as likely, despite limits on a caretaker prime minister’s powers.

Immigration (1)

• Juan David Rojas says Flavio Bolsonaro left Brazil after Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his passport surrendered; Rojas described a route through Argentina and Ecuador to Miami, where Marco Rubio said the Trump administration would provide asylum and visas.

Corruption (2)

• Rojas says Brazil’s Supreme Court has amassed outsized authority: individual justices can investigate, rule, and direct police enforcement. He argues that court power has become politicized and that reform is needed, citing a reported $50 million payment to Moraes from a banker tied to figures across political camps.
• The report adds a rape allegation from Swiss model Beatrice Kuehl, who says Trump promised visa and NYU help before assaulting her; Emily notes that James Patterson’s 2017 book had already discussed Epstein’s NYU connections, challenging the report’s claim that the link was not public.

Censorship (1)

• Rojas condemns censorship and due-process violations regardless of which side benefits, while saying Bolsonaro’s coup effort was serious; he cited military chiefs’ testimony that Bolsonaro sought a coup, alongside cases of people jailed without trial.

Elections (4)

• Rojas says Brazil extended voting by two hours for the first time, but the roughly 30,000 affected voters could not explain Lula’s four-million-vote win; Trump called the election’s tabulation strange while saying he liked Lula.
• Rojas says Lula’s victory came despite strong street support for him, while Bolsonaro’s party won a landmark congressional result; Lula campaigned pragmatically on crime, energy, Amazon development, and oil, and Rojas warned that Trump’s regional standing had fallen.
• The House Democratic report alleges Trump participated in Epstein’s abuse of young women and says federal officials suppressed evidence; Emily says the report links earlier allegations to Epstein, while Ryan Grimm recommends a special counsel led by Thomas Massie.
• Democrats are using Epstein-file votes in Senate ads, arguing Republicans protected donors and concealed abuse; Ryan Grimm says the issue can mobilize Democrats and independents while depressing Republican turnout, and cited at least $20 million in Senate ad spending.

Society (2)

• The report also recounts allegations from Stacey Williams, Jill Harth, and Ivana Trump, plus claims involving underage girls; the accounts differ in severity, and Harth later called her allegations embellished and said she might vote for Trump.
• Other accounts in the report describe Maxwell presenting women to Trump, Epstein’s birthday-book joke about selling a 20-year-old to Trump for $22,500, Maria Farmer’s account of Trump mistaking her for a younger girl, and a Russian model’s later flight with Maxwell and Prince Andrew.

Middle East (2)

• Trita Parsi says Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sent senior officials to Tehran seeking help with the Houthis, but their meeting produced only a pledge to keep talking. The Houthis demand an end to Saudi Arabia’s air blockade before stopping attacks, and Parsi says Iran will not pressure them to abandon that demand.
• Parsi says the Saudis reportedly offered the Houthis $1 billion, but the Houthis want a strategic concession, not a payment. He compares their blockade demand with Iran’s own insistence that the U.S. lift its blockade as a condition for a ceasefire.

Iran (2)

• Parsi says Israeli aircraft breached Iranian airspace over the weekend, but Iran held fire because leaders believed Israel was trying to provoke a response and draw the U.S. into war. He says a wider conflict would devastate the region, including Iran.
• Parsi says Iran considered restarting the conflict shortly before the U.S. midterms to shock markets and leave Trump little time to respond, but he no longer sees that as the likely choice. He says Iran may wait because Trump has repeatedly threatened action and then backed down.

Elections (9)

• Logan Phillips says the available House polling points to a worse environment for Republicans than expected, despite a shortage of nonpartisan district polls. The 14-poll set showed a nearly 23-point Democratic shift in North Carolina’s 11th District, but only a 2-point shift in Pennsylvania’s 1st.
• Phillips says North Carolina’s early vote is much more Democratic than in recent elections, and the open seat in NC-11 adds voter frustration after incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew over ethical issues. He attributes Republican weakness in Texas districts to underperformance with Latino voters.
• Phillips says aggressive mid-decade redistricting has put more Republican-held seats at risk and left incumbents with voters they do not know. He argues the maps can look corrupt to voters and may give Democrats an incentive to redraw districts when they gain state-level power.
• Phillips says Republican outside spending in supposedly safe districts signals real concern, though some cases may reflect an incumbent’s nerves. He singled out Steve Scalise’s R+38 district, where he suspected allies were spending an extra $5 million as insurance.
• Democrats are expanding their target map into districts including Arkansas’ 2nd, Colorado’s 3rd, Florida’s 27th, New York’s 21st, Nevada’s 2nd and Tennessee’s 9th. Phillips says Republicans have also dropped some targets, including Tom Suozzi’s district, where he views Suozzi as a strong incumbent.
• Phillips says voter dissatisfaction with Trump is the main driver of Democratic gains, with prices, tariffs and diesel costs hurting rural areas and Latino communities especially exposed to economic pressure. He also cites backlash to immigration enforcement and weak candidates as factors in individual races.
• Elon Musk has put hundreds of millions of dollars into the midterms, especially in Texas and Ohio, where Phillips says the spending can backfire by spotlighting billionaire influence. Texas Democrats are using Musk’s spending in ads, and Gina Hinojosa obtained emails between Musk and Greg Abbott for potential campaign use.
• Phillips says in-state grassroots fundraising is more predictive than super PAC spending because it reflects candidate quality and brings candidates cheaper rates. He points to Democratic fundraising strength in Texas, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio, while heavy outside spending can signal that a candidate such as Ken Paxton is in trouble.
• Phillips says early voting looks strong for Democrats in North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa, including strong Black turnout in North Carolina and Georgia. Michigan is flat or slightly weaker than 2022, while Texas turnout is high but its partisan meaning is unclear and may give Democrats less turnout advantage.

Media (1)

• Tucker Carlson says U.S. coverage largely ignored Canada’s election despite Canada’s long border and major trade relationship, while Israeli election coverage drew intense attention.

Trade (1)

• Tucker Carlson argues Israel has little economic importance to the United States: it has fewer than 10 million people, limited trade, and receives substantial U.S. support.

Middle East (2)

• Tucker Carlson says a video from an unidentified West Bank town showed masked settlers beating an elderly American citizen, throwing rocks at a home, and burning the family’s car; the source withheld his identity over fears for relatives’ safety.
• Tucker Carlson says settler attacks in the occupied territories are escalating and that Israeli authorities have sometimes distanced themselves only after video evidence emerged; he describes settlers as operating with impunity.

Elections (1)

• Jeffrey Sachs says U.S. opinion has turned against backing Israel’s conduct in Gaza, especially among young people, and predicts candidates who promise to end U.S. support for the wars will have an electoral advantage.

War (1)

• Sachs links U.S. wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran to Netanyahu’s regional agenda, arguing the conflicts brought enormous costs, instability, and casualties; he says the Iran war began during negotiations and killed Iranian leaders gathered to discuss diplomacy.

Religion (1)

• Sachs says early Zionism was largely secular and that religious opposition to Zionism persisted among many rabbis; he argues a militant, nationalist religious politics grew from the 1970s onward and was distinct from rabbinic ethics.

Nation-State (1)

• Sachs says Netanyahu’s Likud has rejected Palestinian statehood since its founding and argues that demographic parity across the territory makes either equal rights in one state or a negotiated two-state arrangement unavoidable.

Diplomacy (1)

• Sachs argues Israel’s reliance on U.S. backing will face growing pressure as Americans reject funding its wars; he warns against proposed U.S.-Israeli security integration and says Israel will have to reckon with equal Arab and Jewish claims to the territory.

Elections (7)

• Pfeffer said Netanyahu was punished less than polls predicted despite the October 7 attack and the strategic and intelligence failures on his watch; Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs had resigned, leaving Netanyahu as the senior figure still facing voters.
• Manuel’s Tavern in Atlanta is a neighborhood political gathering place known as a Democratic bar; its owners have hosted politicians including Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter, and John Ossoff held an early fundraiser in a small back room.
• Rebecca Jackson reported that Ossoff leads in every major poll and has raised more money than any other candidate nationwide this cycle, while running in a state Trump carried by two points in 2024.
• Ossoff pairs a restrained Senate record on foster care and military housing with combative speeches attacking Trump-era corruption; his team cuts his self-written remarks into viral Instagram clips and invokes civil-rights leader John Lewis to frame a broader vision.
• Ossoff’s only controversial Senate vote was against blocking federal funds for schools that allow transgender women to compete in women’s sports; his constituent work also includes meeting the family of Amber Thurman, who died after traveling from Georgia to North Carolina for an abortion.
• Two Republican mayors in rural South Georgia endorsed Ossoff in August, saying a candidate can rise above party lines; Jackson said his crossover appeal matters in a state that remains more Republican than Democratic.
• Ossoff became the first millennial senator and has said he does not want to run for president, but Jackson said a strong Georgia result could increase pressure from Democrats looking for a candidate who can win.

Media (5)

• Doug Dowson found that critics and audiences differ more in which films they review than in how they rate films: critics favor documentaries, foreign films, and low-budget movies, while audiences gravitate toward action and science fiction.
• Dowson’s data showed critics’ and audiences’ ratings correlated at about 0.6 from 2005 to 2016; agreement later fell, largely because of a handful of popular big-budget action and family films, then began recovering around 2022.
• Dowson offered franchise fatigue as a possible reason critics diverged from audiences over superhero films, then suggested the pandemic’s shock and lower cinema revenues may have pushed critics to reconnect with moviegoers; he said ratings now align more closely than at any point in the dataset.
• Dowson’s analysis found higher critic scores were associated with higher box-office sales, despite industry experts describing critics as relatively unimportant beside word of mouth and social-media buzz; he cited an A24 documentary about Elizabeth Holmes as a recent hit with a 98% Rotten Tomatoes score.
• Dowson said global box-office spending was about $25 billion this year, up roughly 13% from last year, even as revenue remained below pre-pandemic levels.

Elections (16)

• David Bessie calls himself an anti-MAGA, center-right Republican who retired to Maine three years ago; he says Trump’s presidencies have been disastrous and the Republican Party corrupt, self-dealing, and incompetent.
• David Bessie criticizes Democrats for Biden-era immigration policy, union influence, and relying on spending rather than problem-solving; he also thinks the party is moving further left instead of toward the center.
• David Bessie sees Susan Collins as thoughtful and willing to cross party lines, but worries her reelection could help MAGA Republicans; his ideal Senate would be tied 50-50, leaving Collins as a swing vote.
• Jess Bidgood says Chuck Schumer backed Janet Mills against Collins, but Maine Democrats gravitated to Graham Platner before his campaign collapsed after a rape accusation; Troy Jackson became the replacement despite limited statewide electoral experience.
• Jess Bidgood describes Collins’s pre-Trump brand as pragmatic governance, bipartisan work, and bringing federal money to Maine; Collins says funding helped a Bangor manufacturing plant that will create 75 jobs.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins has kept distance from Trump and often breaks with Republicans, but Democrats argue her dissent rarely blocks his priorities; they point to her Kavanaugh vote and her vote advancing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins’s moderate reputation, constituent-focused spending, and occasional breaks with Trump keep her competitive despite strong national headwinds; Democrats have won Maine’s popular vote in at least the last three presidential elections.
• Jess Bidgood says John E. Sununu is campaigning in New Hampshire against the Iran war and Canada tariffs, while distancing himself from Trump; Sununu says he has never met the president.
• New Hampshire remains a difficult Senate state for Republicans: Democrats won recent races by wide margins, and a New York Times-Siena poll had Sununu trailing Chris Pappas by about five points after an earlier poll put Sununu ahead by a couple.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins and Sununu are testing a route to victory through independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats willing to cross party lines, rather than relying only on MAGA turnout.
• Ashley Hinson shifted from promising to be Trump’s strongest Senate ally to running ads about bipartisan work, but Jess Bidgood says Hinson lacks Collins’s long record of independence.
• Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar publicly warned Trump that immigration enforcement had gone too far, arguing Hispanic voters felt betrayed; her district is 70 percent Hispanic.
• Kansas Republican Roger Marshall has criticized an ICE raid’s impact on farmers and pushed back on Trump’s threat to a Canadian aircraft maker, while still urging Trump voters to turn out; Democrat Adam Hamilton is courting Republicans frustrated with tariffs, diesel costs, and farm policy.
• Jess Bidgood says Democrat James Talarico has led Ken Paxton in multiple Texas polls, despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton; the result could test whether Trump’s backing can still carry a flawed candidate in a deep-red state.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins winning while Paxton loses could give Republicans permission to distance themselves from Trump, though Trump would retain fundraising power and influence over the party apparatus and RNC.
• Ohio Governor Mike DeWine condemned a Vivek Ramaswamy campaign ad that used his opponent’s mother to attack her, showing that some pre-Trump Republicans still challenge the party’s newer political style.