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Israel’s deadlock leaves Palestinian candidates exposed

Nov 3, 2026Summary from 6 podcasts.
  • Arab parties may hold votes that could break Israel’s deadlock, but opposition leaders resist relying on them.
  • Palestinian candidate Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew amid an effort to disqualify him.
  • Analyst Dadal Kurd says the election may change the severity of Israeli control, not end it.

Palestinian candidate Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew from Israel’s election after a campaign to disqualify him, Palestinian politics analyst Dadal Kurd said. The attorney general backed the ban, and parties across the Zionist political spectrum supported it, Kurd said. He warned that the episode could set a precedent against Palestinian candidates.

The election has left no clear governing majority. Arab parties won enough seats to matter, but opposition leaders have ruled out forming a government with them. That leaves the opposition with a choice: seek Arab lawmakers’ support, or risk letting Benjamin Netanyahu stay in power despite his bloc falling short of a majority.

Netanyahu’s campaign had cast Arab political participation as a threat. On election day, he accused Arab polling stations of fraud; those were his allegations, not evidence of fraud presented in the episodes. Tucker Carlson said the attacks expose a conflict between Israel’s democratic claims and efforts to limit Arab political influence. Krystal Ball made a similar point, arguing that Arab citizens’ votes are welcomed when they help Israel’s democratic image but smeared when they could change who governs.

The size of the public’s opposition to an Arab-backed government is disputed. Noga Tarnopolsky cited an exit poll suggesting a clear majority of opposition voters favored governing with Arab parties. Ball cited different polling that found 80% of Jewish Israelis opposed to such a coalition.

Even a change in government would not necessarily change Israel’s basic approach to Palestinians, Kurd said. He described both main political blocs as committed to maintaining Israeli control, with disagreement over how harshly that control is enforced. The election’s immediate test is whether Arab lawmakers can help shape a government; its broader limit, in Kurd’s view, is that no leading contender is offering to end the occupation.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

It Could Happen Here Weekly 256 • Oct 31

  • Dadal Kurd says Israel’s October 27 election offers Palestinians no contender who supports ending the occupation or Gaza war; a change of government could still alter how severely Palestinians face state and settler violence.
  • Dadal Kurd describes both Israeli political blocs as committed to maintaining control over Palestinians. The opposition criticizes Netanyahu over security failures and costs, while figures including Eisenkot and Bennett still support West Bank settlement or annexation.
  • The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs 61; parties need 3.25% of the vote to win representation. Polls put each main bloc near 50 seats, leaving Arab parties pivotal even as opposition leaders rule out governing with them.
  • Dadal Kurd outlines four possible election outcomes: a hung parliament and repeat vote, an opposition minority government backed externally by Palestinian parties, defections or a unity government, or an outright majority if small parties miss the threshold.
  • Dadal Kurd says Palestinian citizens face rising repression, organized crime and gun violence, while West Bank Palestinians face settler attacks, demolitions and land loss. A less extreme government might curb some vigilantes, but annexation and permanent Israeli security control remain broadly accepted.
  • Dadal Kurd says Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew after Ben-Gvir’s camp sought to disqualify him for an article analyzing October 7; the Attorney General backed the ban, and parties across the Zionist spectrum supported it, raising fears of a precedent against Palestinian candidates.
Also discussed on this episode: (31)

Labor (8)

  • Pam Sweetland-Hallis, Andrew D. Ferguson and Elizabeth Coppice-Duclos describe the IWW as an all-industries, volunteer-led union organized around worker control. Members make workplace decisions directly, and organizers support campaigns rather than negotiate over workers’ heads.
  • The IWW’s North American regional election fills administrative and committee roles, while most substantive decisions happen at branch meetings. Guests say low participation leaves vacancies and gives active members an unusually large influence over the union.
  • Andrew D. Ferguson says Houston’s IWW branch had to de-charter because nobody could serve as secretary, while Portland rebuilt through outreach and found new organizing leads. He argues branches need different support, from recruitment to help processing campaigns.
  • Elizabeth Coppice-Duclos and Andrew D. Ferguson accuse the current IWW administration of disrespecting members, obstructing campaigns and treating officers as leaders rather than stewards. Ferguson says the board removed him from office after he criticized its handling of a committee’s finances.
  • The IWW candidates say national officers should connect branches, support organizing and protect member rights, not dictate local priorities. They criticize budget cuts that leave committees and campaigns unfunded, arguing visible support can help rebuild membership and revenue.
  • Kim Kelly recounts cemetery workers’ strikes as powerful but politically risky leverage. New York cemetery workers struck in 1949 and 1975, while Liverpool workers ended their 1979 action quickly after public backlash over unburied bodies helped conservatives attack Labour.
  • Kim Kelly says strikes by morgue and funeral workers expose how essential death-care labor is. Philadelphia’s 2025 municipal strike overwhelmed the morgue, while a 2011 Cook County backlog revealed unsafe storage and severe staffing and funding failures.
  • Kim Kelly recounts a 1964 New York funeral workers’ strike that won wage increases after bosses struggled to handle the workload. She also describes 1852 coffin makers joining a broader eight-hour-day movement and winning concessions.

History (2)

  • Carlos Barrios Polanco argues the Puerto Rican chupacabra story grew from animal attacks, a likely cinematic influence and sensational reporting. Madeline Tolentino’s detailed 1995 account resembled the creature Sil from Species, released shortly before her sighting.
  • Barrios Polanco connects chupacabra stories to Puerto Rico’s U.S. military presence, past government abuses and economic strain. He says livestock losses during a severe drought gave rural communities a tangible monster to blame amid colonialism and hardship.

Media (1)

  • Barrios Polanco says Puerto Rican tabloids amplified unverified livestock attacks into a mass-media scare, while urban and international coverage portrayed rural residents as credulous. Mayor José Chemo Soto used a highly publicized chupacabra hunt to build political visibility.

Society (1)

  • Barrios Polanco says chupacabra sightings spread across Latin America as a symbol for economic dislocation and state violence. In Mexico, he links the panic to NAFTA-era changes that enabled communal land privatization, displaced rural communities and increased unemployment.

War (1)

  • James Stout reports that El Salvador sent troops to Haiti after four Salvadoran UN task-force members went missing. He also reports a death in ICE detention, Iraqi prison sentences for French Islamic State members, and separate Jordanian and Israeli operations in Syria.

Elections (13)

  • Robert Evans says Lula won Brazil’s runoff after an organized online and in-person campaign countered Bolsonaro’s viral messaging. A WhatsApp channel directed followers to avoid boosting far-right posts, spread targeted search terms and mobilize voters.
  • Robert Evans says Flávio Bolsonaro fled Brazil for Miami after losing the election and facing corruption investigations. A Peter Thiel-supported conservative group urged U.S. sanctions against Brazil, while Trump questioned the election’s appearance without alleging fraud.
  • James Stout says the DOJ claimed 20,000 California voter registrations belonged to likely non-citizens and sought to sequester ballots shortly before Election Day. The Ninth Circuit dismissed the administration’s appeal, while a judge warned that the effort risked disenfranchising valid voters.
  • James Stout says Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe and Cam Higby face felony charges after disguising themselves to test Minnesota’s voter-vouching rules. Their video showed them impersonating voters, including using another real voter’s identity.
  • Garrison Davis says AI political advertising is growing quickly, with many ads using deepfakes of real politicians and few carrying disclaimers. The Wesleyan Media Project found most identified AI ads were sponsored by Republican candidates or groups.
  • The host says a Ken Paxton ad used a photorealistic deepfake of James Tallarico reading stitched, paraphrased quotes he never said, including fabricated Bible passages. Its AI disclosure appeared only in tiny text at the end.
  • A Ted Cruz-linked super PAC, Frontline Action, targeted James Fishback with AI ads portraying an anti-Israel gathering and a talking-fish skit. The host describes the campaign as a fight between pro-Israel Republicans and the party’s anti-Israel faction.
  • A Frontline Action ad targeting Abdul El-Said falsely grouped Hasan Piker with El-Said’s family and used anti-Arab tropes linking them to terrorism and the Muslim Brotherhood. Margaret calls the ad post-9/11 racism.
  • A North Carolina congressional candidate used AI footage to attack Jamie Agar over drag performances: real footage was altered to add a pride flag, then used as the basis for fabricated scenes with drag queens, without a disclosure.
  • Bruce Blakeman has posted at least 22 AI ads since April, including deepfakes of Kathy Hochul and Mamdani. One framed Hochul as a medication spokesperson; another falsely portrayed her offering free healthcare to stigmatized groups, without the disclosure New York law requires.
  • The host sorts political AI ads into realistic visuals replacing stock footage, satirical skits, and fabricated scandal scenes. Realistic quote-reading deepfakes can mislead by stripping context, while satire may exploit First Amendment protections.
  • The host says 31 states regulate AI or deepfakes in political ads; Maryland bans misleading election deepfakes, while California and Texas prohibit deceptive or harmful ones within 30 days of an election. Two federal bills remain pending, and overly broad rules risk First Amendment challenges.
  • A 2026 Communication Research study found that political deepfakes lowered support for targeted candidates even when viewers knew the videos were fake. The host says disclosure alone cannot prevent that delegitimizing effect.

Corruption (5)

  • Margaret says Albania’s two dominant parties, center-left and center-right, have both pursued privatization and corruption. The country’s communist dictatorship ended in multiparty elections; later, pyramid schemes collapsed and helped trigger a revolt against corruption.
  • Margaret says Albania has about 2.5 million people, and roughly a third of the country has emigrated, with 1.1 million Albanian-born people living abroad. Edi Rama has led the Socialist Party government since 2013 and is in his fourth term.
  • Margaret says Jared Kushner’s resort plans for protected wetlands and the island of Sazan became a protest flashpoint. After a security guard beat and threatened a protester in front of police, demonstrators focused their anger on corruption, privatization, and police violence.
  • Margaret describes the Flamingo protests as a broad movement against both Edi Rama and Sali Berisha, uniting people around demands to jail both leaders. After 130 days of peaceful demonstrations, a student strike on October 13 preceded escalation and a violent state crackdown.
  • Margaret says Albanian police used chemical weapons, water cannons, and baton rounds, while authorities detained protesters, restricted gatherings, and blocked some people from leaving the country. She sees a possible opening for assemblies and counterpower, but says the movement has no agreed plan for what follows Rama.

Google Wants to Custody Banks' Bitcoin. Brazil Shows Why You Hold Your Own | Rabbit Hole Recap 426 • Oct 29

  • Israel’s election produced no clear governing majority, leaving coalition negotiations ahead; the host notes a record showing for Arab parties and says both likely governing blocs oppose a two-state solution and take a hard line on Iran.
Also discussed on this episode: (23)

BTC Markets (5)

  • The host argues Bitcoin benefits when central banks devalue fiat currencies, while the current market remains range-bound around $79,000 to $81,500.
  • The host reported Bitcoin at $81,370, a $1.64 trillion market cap, and 1,293 transactions in Clark’s mempool; mempool.space showed 57,846 unconfirmed transactions.
  • Jason Calacanis predicts Bitcoin will never set another all-time high and says investors should favor AI; the host counters that Bitcoin is money and can coexist with AI investments.
  • The hosts cite sharp declines in Brazilian assets after Lula’s victory and argue that Bitcoin self-custody can protect savings from currency and political risk; they also warn Brazil’s PIX and planned Drex enable more state oversight.
  • The host says Bitcoin-backed loan rates are falling as lending capital grows, and argues that rates below home-equity credit would make Bitcoin more attractive collateral because lenders can liquidate it continuously.

Inflation (1)

  • The host says Trump’s stated willingness to tolerate high inflation strengthens Bitcoin’s monetary case, while AI-driven productivity does not remove the need to store wealth in hard money.

Startups (1)

  • The hosts disagree on Anthropic’s prospects: one expects AI firms to face a shakeout, while the other says its S-1 looked stronger than feared and argues missing Q3 figures reflect filing deadlines.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • Paul Kedrosky’s bear case is that projected AI infrastructure spending needs enormous revenue to earn an adequate return; he also argues frontier labs must assess how many customers need frontier-level models.

Safety (3)

  • The hosts flag Anthropic’s concentrated control as a governance concern: its team retains majority ownership, while a five-person trust appoints the board despite the company’s stated risk of catastrophic harm.
  • The host says scammers recruit teenagers through Roblox and Discord to call victims and steal Bitcoin, sometimes with Russian involvement; the host urges people not to answer unknown callers.
  • Coinbase tested five leading models with 16 agents against Bitcoin Core code and found two minor issues; the hosts say AI-assisted review supports faster patching, while warning developers not to surrender independent judgment.

Elections (2)

  • Brazil’s election drew allegations of irregularities: the host says voting hours were extended in Lula-favorable districts and Flavio Bolsonaro faced pressure to remain in Brazil, while acknowledging the reports were unconfirmed.
  • The host treats Senator Alex Padilla’s call to investigate Elon Musk without citing a specific crime as a warning sign of political targeting, and says socialist proposals in New York will face budget and implementation limits.

Models (1)

  • Lula promised sovereign Brazilian AI powered by domestic renewable energy; the host questions whether Brazil can create the economic conditions to deliver it and warns that state-controlled AI could shape permitted information.

Protocol (2)

  • Bitcoin Core disclosed two denial-of-service vulnerabilities involving unbounded memory growth; both were patched, and the hosts urged node operators to update while describing the flaws as medium severity.
  • Layer 2 Labs delayed its eCash fork-related release after Bitcoin Core’s vulnerability fixes and told node and pool operators to update before the fork point; the hosts support testing drivechains but dispute their proposed economics and trust assumptions.

Privacy (1)

  • The hosts discussed PISA, a regtest prototype combining PayJoin with cross-input signature aggregation to make transaction ownership harder to infer; PayJoin, Lightning, and ecash already offer privacy tools, while PISA would require a soft fork for mainnet.

Coding (1)

  • A GitHub deletion removed private forks of a startup’s repository after Anthropic acquired the original owner; the startup recovered its code from an employee’s laptop, exposing the risk of relying on a hosted repository alone.

Custody (1)

  • Google previewed an MPC custody service for financial institutions, with key shares held in separate hardware enclaves; the hosts see it as Fireblocks competition but stress that Google’s coordination layer differs from native Bitcoin multisig and FROST.

Markets (1)

  • The hosts connect institutional custody and tokenization efforts to always-on markets: ICE invested in Trade.xyz, a Hyperliquid-based derivatives venue, while Stan Druckenmiller’s first tweet promoted Hyperliquid.

Regulation (1)

  • The host says Fairshake remains active in election spending and Senator Bill Hagerty continues to push market-structure legislation; the host also notes a Thai court ruling that Bitcoin can be owned, transferred, and stolen as property.

Social Media (1)

  • The hosts warn that algorithm-driven posts about grid shutdowns and election emergencies can amplify panic; one host recalls New York blackouts becoming dangerous after the first day, while acknowledging the city has handled outages before.

Media (1)

  • The hosts briefly discussed Kanye West’s apology op-ed and uncertainty about which venues will book his tour; they also recalled seeing Daft Punk and speculated that the group could reunite for a lucrative tour.

10/29/26: Bibi Says Arabs Rigged Elections, Abdul Exclusive Interview • Oct 29

  • Netanyahu accused Arab polling stations of election theft, alleging cash payments, threats, double identities, and ballot discrepancies. The host noted that Likud faces a separate Qatari bribery case and said Netanyahu has repeatedly cited security concerns to delay court hearings.
  • Krystal argued that Israeli leaders and U.S. supporters celebrate Arab citizens’ voting when it bolsters Israel’s democratic image, then smear Arab voters when their turnout matters. She said an anti-Netanyahu coalition with Arab parties is politically blocked by Jewish-majority opposition.
  • Krystal cited polling that found 80% of Jewish Israelis opposed a governing coalition with Arab parties. She said this undermines claims of equal political inclusion, especially given the lack of equal rights for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.
  • Mark Levin urged Israeli right-wing voters to turn out against leftists and Arabs, while Moshe Feinglin said Israel should judge foreign critics by its own religious standards. Krystal described this rhetoric as choosing Jewish ethno-national identity over democratic inclusion.
Also discussed on this episode: (15)

Iran (3)

  • The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. warnings to Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly targeting energy infrastructure. Axios reported Qatar’s proposal for UN inspections in exchange for limited sanctions relief; Iran rejected the terms.
  • The host argued that Netanyahu’s caretaker status and Trump’s anticipated midterm losses could make renewed war more attractive to both leaders. The host said JD Vance had contacted Iranian officials, but judged a deal unlikely.
  • A host cited oil above $110 per barrel and forecast national gasoline prices of at least $4.30 per gallon on Election Day, warning that renewed strikes could push prices higher.

Israel (1)

  • The Jerusalem Post reported that Trump wants Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich removed from Israel’s government because settler violence undermines his regional vision. The host said Netanyahu could not form a government without them.

Elections (6)

  • Abdul El-Sayed said polls showed him leading Michigan’s Senate race by six or seven points, but he was campaigning as if ten points behind. He said voters focused on affordability, health care, corruption, and political chaos.
  • Abdul El-Sayed said Michigan voters described spending $80 to fill a tank and struggling to afford groceries. He pointed to rising insurance premiums and utility rates, and blamed Trump’s tariffs, Iran war, and health-care cuts for worsening household costs.
  • Haley Stevens reaffirmed support for Abdul El-Sayed but said she would not campaign with him; her fiancé endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. Abdul said his coalition includes voters opposing Trump, the Iran war, tariffs, and limits on rights and health care.
  • Abdul El-Sayed said seniors facing rising property taxes often rely on their children to keep their homes, while also backing more housing, zoning reform, and limits on speculation and short-term rentals. He blamed federal disinvestment for shifting infrastructure costs onto local taxpayers.
  • Republicans and RFK Jr. attacked Abdul El-Sayed’s Muslim and Arab identity; RFK Jr. claimed Arabs produce no major scientific or literary achievements. Abdul, who said he holds two doctoral degrees and has published scientific research, called the remarks self-revealing bigotry.
  • A poll cited by Krystal found 38% of voters would be less likely to support a Muslim candidate. Abdul El-Sayed said he expects Michigan voters to reject religious smears and focus instead on jobs, health care, clean air and water, and housing costs.

Immigration (1)

  • Abdul El-Sayed said Biden and Harris should have enforced tougher border security and better tracked who entered the country. He distinguished border enforcement by Customs and Border Protection from ICE’s internal enforcement, which he said Trump has weaponized against the Constitution.

Health (1)

  • Abdul El-Sayed defended access to health care as a rights issue, saying treatment decisions should rest with patients, doctors, and parents for minors. He called “defund the police” an inadequate slogan and backed law-enforcement staffing alongside behavioral-health response and violence-prevention programs.

AI Infrastructure (2)

  • Abdul El-Sayed said data centers and AI raise both utility costs and control concerns, especially for young people and rural communities. He proposed democratic oversight, an AI regulator, limits on AI firing workers or denying care, union construction, water protections, and community power to reject projects.
  • The host said a New Mexico hospital system had been hacked and noted Bill Gates’s warning that humanity may face its most chaotic 20 years. The transcript gave no details about the cyberattack or Gates’s reasoning.

Regulation (1)

  • Abdul El-Sayed opposed banning sports betting but favored sharply limiting its advertising, placement, and ties to sports entertainment to reduce gambling harms. He said restrictions should protect people with problem gambling from targeted marketing.

10/28/26: Israeli Election Results, Bolsonaro Flees Brazil To U.S., Dems Drop Trump Epstein Report • Oct 28

  • Noga Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats but lost ground, leaving his bloc short of a government; the opposition has a majority on paper, but may lack the leverage to form one.
  • Tarnopolsky says opposition voters favor governing with Arab parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List; she cites an exit poll showing this, and says even about 45% of Netanyahu voters accepted Arab participation in government.
  • Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu and Likud pushed anti-Arab messages throughout election day, including an AI-manipulated image already debunked by Fake Reporter; about 10% of votes from temporary polling sites remained uncounted.
  • Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu normalized anti-Arab rhetoric: election-day campaigning she describes as illegal drew only a small fine in an earlier cycle, while cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had 13 hate-crime and terror convictions.
Also discussed on this episode: (11)

Israel (1)

  • Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu has sought another conflict with Iran and could use his caretaker period to expand Israeli action in Gaza; she sees continued West Bank violence as likely, despite limits on a caretaker prime minister’s powers.

Immigration (1)

  • Juan David Rojas says Flavio Bolsonaro left Brazil after Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his passport surrendered; Rojas described a route through Argentina and Ecuador to Miami, where Marco Rubio said the Trump administration would provide asylum and visas.

Corruption (2)

  • Rojas says Brazil’s Supreme Court has amassed outsized authority: individual justices can investigate, rule, and direct police enforcement. He argues that court power has become politicized and that reform is needed, citing a reported $50 million payment to Moraes from a banker tied to figures across political camps.
  • The report adds a rape allegation from Swiss model Beatrice Kuehl, who says Trump promised visa and NYU help before assaulting her; Emily notes that James Patterson’s 2017 book had already discussed Epstein’s NYU connections, challenging the report’s claim that the link was not public.

Censorship (1)

  • Rojas condemns censorship and due-process violations regardless of which side benefits, while saying Bolsonaro’s coup effort was serious; he cited military chiefs’ testimony that Bolsonaro sought a coup, alongside cases of people jailed without trial.

Elections (4)

  • Rojas says Brazil extended voting by two hours for the first time, but the roughly 30,000 affected voters could not explain Lula’s four-million-vote win; Trump called the election’s tabulation strange while saying he liked Lula.
  • Rojas says Lula’s victory came despite strong street support for him, while Bolsonaro’s party won a landmark congressional result; Lula campaigned pragmatically on crime, energy, Amazon development, and oil, and Rojas warned that Trump’s regional standing had fallen.
  • The House Democratic report alleges Trump participated in Epstein’s abuse of young women and says federal officials suppressed evidence; Emily says the report links earlier allegations to Epstein, while Ryan Grimm recommends a special counsel led by Thomas Massie.
  • Democrats are using Epstein-file votes in Senate ads, arguing Republicans protected donors and concealed abuse; Ryan Grimm says the issue can mobilize Democrats and independents while depressing Republican turnout, and cited at least $20 million in Senate ad spending.

Society (2)

  • The report also recounts allegations from Stacey Williams, Jill Harth, and Ivana Trump, plus claims involving underage girls; the accounts differ in severity, and Harth later called her allegations embellished and said she might vote for Trump.
  • Other accounts in the report describe Maxwell presenting women to Trump, Epstein’s birthday-book joke about selling a 20-year-old to Trump for $22,500, Maria Farmer’s account of Trump mistaking her for a younger girl, and a Russian model’s later flight with Maxwell and Prince Andrew.

Jeffrey Sachs on Netanyahu’s Struggle to Keep Control of the World’s Most Bloodthirsty Ethnostate • Oct 29

  • Mark Levin urged Israeli Likud supporters to vote against Arab citizens, describing them as a threat to Israel; Tucker Carlson says the appeal exposes the conflict between Arab participation and claims of democratic equality.
  • Tucker Carlson argues Israel’s democratic claim is undermined by Palestinians in territories under Israeli control who cannot vote, and by separate, unequal public schooling for Arab citizens inside Israel.
  • Benjamin Netanyahu called the election stolen by Arab parties and demanded police and Shin Bet investigations; Yair Netanyahu argued Arab parties should be barred, citing Section 7A of the Basic Law: The Knesset.
  • Jeffrey Sachs says Arab parties’ strong turnout left them with potential leverage to remove Netanyahu, either through a coalition or by supporting an opposition minority government; he says anti-Arab exclusion could keep Netanyahu in power.
  • Tucker Carlson criticizes U.S. officials and pro-Israel donors for staying silent as Israeli leaders challenged Arab voting rights; he also cites Mike Huckabee’s ties to Jonathan Pollard, who stole U.S. military secrets for Israel.
Also discussed on this episode: (9)

Media (1)

  • Tucker Carlson says U.S. coverage largely ignored Canada’s election despite Canada’s long border and major trade relationship, while Israeli election coverage drew intense attention.

Trade (1)

  • Tucker Carlson argues Israel has little economic importance to the United States: it has fewer than 10 million people, limited trade, and receives substantial U.S. support.

Middle East (2)

  • Tucker Carlson says a video from an unidentified West Bank town showed masked settlers beating an elderly American citizen, throwing rocks at a home, and burning the family’s car; the source withheld his identity over fears for relatives’ safety.
  • Tucker Carlson says settler attacks in the occupied territories are escalating and that Israeli authorities have sometimes distanced themselves only after video evidence emerged; he describes settlers as operating with impunity.

Elections (1)

  • Jeffrey Sachs says U.S. opinion has turned against backing Israel’s conduct in Gaza, especially among young people, and predicts candidates who promise to end U.S. support for the wars will have an electoral advantage.

War (1)

  • Sachs links U.S. wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran to Netanyahu’s regional agenda, arguing the conflicts brought enormous costs, instability, and casualties; he says the Iran war began during negotiations and killed Iranian leaders gathered to discuss diplomacy.

Religion (1)

  • Sachs says early Zionism was largely secular and that religious opposition to Zionism persisted among many rabbis; he argues a militant, nationalist religious politics grew from the 1970s onward and was distinct from rabbinic ethics.

Nation-State (1)

  • Sachs says Netanyahu’s Likud has rejected Palestinian statehood since its founding and argues that demographic parity across the territory makes either equal rights in one state or a negotiated two-state arrangement unavoidable.

Diplomacy (1)

  • Sachs argues Israel’s reliance on U.S. backing will face growing pressure as Americans reject funding its wars; he warns against proposed U.S.-Israeli security integration and says Israel will have to reckon with equal Arab and Jewish claims to the territory.

Bye bye Bibi? Israel’s election results • Oct 28

  • Anshul Pfeffer said Israel’s election produced a parliamentary deadlock: Netanyahu’s opponents may have a majority, but they cannot agree to govern with Arab parties, while a majority also opposes another Netanyahu government.
  • Pfeffer said Netanyahu’s campaign repeatedly cast Arab parties and the left as threats, accusing them of trying to steal the election; Netanyahu used election-day social-media videos to discredit any coalition relying on Arab parties.
Also discussed on this episode: (14)

Elections (9)

  • Early exit polls gave the opposition 70 seats and Netanyahu’s coalition 50, but the count later put his coalition near 55; Likud became the largest party, and about half the votes were counted by Wednesday morning.
  • Pfeffer said Netanyahu was punished less than polls predicted despite the October 7 attack and the strategic and intelligence failures on his watch; Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs had resigned, leaving Netanyahu as the senior figure still facing voters.
  • President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult party representatives and choose who gets the mandate to form a government, but Pfeffer said neither Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot can succeed unless parties break their pledges; otherwise, Israel could hold another election in early 2027.
  • Manuel’s Tavern in Atlanta is a neighborhood political gathering place known as a Democratic bar; its owners have hosted politicians including Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter, and John Ossoff held an early fundraiser in a small back room.
  • Rebecca Jackson reported that Ossoff leads in every major poll and has raised more money than any other candidate nationwide this cycle, while running in a state Trump carried by two points in 2024.
  • Ossoff pairs a restrained Senate record on foster care and military housing with combative speeches attacking Trump-era corruption; his team cuts his self-written remarks into viral Instagram clips and invokes civil-rights leader John Lewis to frame a broader vision.
  • Ossoff’s only controversial Senate vote was against blocking federal funds for schools that allow transgender women to compete in women’s sports; his constituent work also includes meeting the family of Amber Thurman, who died after traveling from Georgia to North Carolina for an abortion.
  • Two Republican mayors in rural South Georgia endorsed Ossoff in August, saying a candidate can rise above party lines; Jackson said his crossover appeal matters in a state that remains more Republican than Democratic.
  • Ossoff became the first millennial senator and has said he does not want to run for president, but Jackson said a strong Georgia result could increase pressure from Democrats looking for a candidate who can win.

Media (5)

  • Doug Dowson found that critics and audiences differ more in which films they review than in how they rate films: critics favor documentaries, foreign films, and low-budget movies, while audiences gravitate toward action and science fiction.
  • Dowson’s data showed critics’ and audiences’ ratings correlated at about 0.6 from 2005 to 2016; agreement later fell, largely because of a handful of popular big-budget action and family films, then began recovering around 2022.
  • Dowson offered franchise fatigue as a possible reason critics diverged from audiences over superhero films, then suggested the pandemic’s shock and lower cinema revenues may have pushed critics to reconnect with moviegoers; he said ratings now align more closely than at any point in the dataset.
  • Dowson’s analysis found higher critic scores were associated with higher box-office sales, despite industry experts describing critics as relatively unimportant beside word of mouth and social-media buzz; he cited an A24 documentary about Elizabeth Holmes as a recent hit with a 98% Rotten Tomatoes score.
  • Dowson said global box-office spending was about $25 billion this year, up roughly 13% from last year, even as revenue remained below pre-pandemic levels.

Is Running From Trump Enough to Save Republicans on Tuesday? • Oct 28

  • Israel’s election count showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot had secured a parliamentary majority; Arab parties recorded their strongest showing ever and may be pivotal to forming a government.
  • Israel’s election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, the first national vote since Hamas’s October 7 assault; turnout reached a record high.
Also discussed on this episode: (16)

Elections (16)

  • David Bessie calls himself an anti-MAGA, center-right Republican who retired to Maine three years ago; he says Trump’s presidencies have been disastrous and the Republican Party corrupt, self-dealing, and incompetent.
  • David Bessie criticizes Democrats for Biden-era immigration policy, union influence, and relying on spending rather than problem-solving; he also thinks the party is moving further left instead of toward the center.
  • David Bessie sees Susan Collins as thoughtful and willing to cross party lines, but worries her reelection could help MAGA Republicans; his ideal Senate would be tied 50-50, leaving Collins as a swing vote.
  • Jess Bidgood says Chuck Schumer backed Janet Mills against Collins, but Maine Democrats gravitated to Graham Platner before his campaign collapsed after a rape accusation; Troy Jackson became the replacement despite limited statewide electoral experience.
  • Jess Bidgood describes Collins’s pre-Trump brand as pragmatic governance, bipartisan work, and bringing federal money to Maine; Collins says funding helped a Bangor manufacturing plant that will create 75 jobs.
  • Jess Bidgood says Collins has kept distance from Trump and often breaks with Republicans, but Democrats argue her dissent rarely blocks his priorities; they point to her Kavanaugh vote and her vote advancing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • Jess Bidgood says Collins’s moderate reputation, constituent-focused spending, and occasional breaks with Trump keep her competitive despite strong national headwinds; Democrats have won Maine’s popular vote in at least the last three presidential elections.
  • Jess Bidgood says John E. Sununu is campaigning in New Hampshire against the Iran war and Canada tariffs, while distancing himself from Trump; Sununu says he has never met the president.
  • New Hampshire remains a difficult Senate state for Republicans: Democrats won recent races by wide margins, and a New York Times-Siena poll had Sununu trailing Chris Pappas by about five points after an earlier poll put Sununu ahead by a couple.
  • Jess Bidgood says Collins and Sununu are testing a route to victory through independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats willing to cross party lines, rather than relying only on MAGA turnout.
  • Ashley Hinson shifted from promising to be Trump’s strongest Senate ally to running ads about bipartisan work, but Jess Bidgood says Hinson lacks Collins’s long record of independence.
  • Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar publicly warned Trump that immigration enforcement had gone too far, arguing Hispanic voters felt betrayed; her district is 70 percent Hispanic.
  • Kansas Republican Roger Marshall has criticized an ICE raid’s impact on farmers and pushed back on Trump’s threat to a Canadian aircraft maker, while still urging Trump voters to turn out; Democrat Adam Hamilton is courting Republicans frustrated with tariffs, diesel costs, and farm policy.
  • Jess Bidgood says Democrat James Talarico has led Ken Paxton in multiple Texas polls, despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton; the result could test whether Trump’s backing can still carry a flawed candidate in a deep-red state.
  • Jess Bidgood says Collins winning while Paxton loses could give Republicans permission to distance themselves from Trump, though Trump would retain fundraising power and influence over the party apparatus and RNC.
  • Ohio Governor Mike DeWine condemned a Vivek Ramaswamy campaign ad that used his opponent’s mother to attack her, showing that some pre-Trump Republicans still challenge the party’s newer political style.