Lula’s win draws Washington deeper into Brazil’s fight

Enterprise (3)

• Anthropic’s S-1 showed substantial profitability and enterprise adoption: the company reported nearly $1 billion in GAAP operating income in Q2, with almost 12,000 customers spending over $100,000 annually.
• Anthropic’s amended S-1 reported Q3 revenue of about $17 billion, up 1,127% year over year, and nine-month revenue of $33.2 billion; it also disclosed $895.4 billion in cumulative compute purchase and lease commitments.
• The guest argues that AI returns are becoming measurable beyond technology companies. Microsoft planned buyouts or cuts affecting roughly 60,000 employees, about a quarter of its global workforce, while executives tied the savings to funding AI investment.

AI Infrastructure (3)

• The guest says the $895.4 billion commitment figure overstates firm liabilities because agreements vary in timing and can depend on compute providers meeting performance conditions; even a fraction would still represent a major capital burden.
• Anthropic expects to spend more than $800 billion on computing infrastructure through 2045, and Blackstone reportedly expects a high-junk credit rating after the IPO rather than an immediate investment-grade rating. The guest says stronger cash flow could eventually lower financing costs.
• The four major hyperscalers turned free-cash-flow negative as AI spending rose, even as Q3 U.S. GDP growth reached 3.4% and manufacturing PMIs hit their highest level since May 2022. Publicly held U.S. debt also crossed 100% of GDP.

Models (2)

• Anthropic allocated 72% of first-half compute to training, research, and internal use, while 25% served paying customers. The guest says shifting training capacity to inference could quickly increase supply, while falling token prices require much faster user growth.
• The guest sees frontier labs moving toward internal drug discovery and other vertical businesses, where they could capture value from their strongest models directly. Partnerships or joint ventures may limit channel conflict with customers that rely on the same labs for tokens.

Markets (1)

• Markets punished crowded AI-related positions as expectations met execution risk: Intel suffered its worst single-day move since 1974, and Morgan Stanley data showed the largest recorded monthly hedge-fund reduction in exposure during October.

Big Tech (1)

• Google’s AI search mode may monetize less effectively than traditional search, while Reddit’s CEO cited search-related traffic concerns. Marty Bent sees Meta’s ad targeting and user engagement as a potential advantage over Google’s search advertising.

Custody (1)

• Binance reported a $6.3 billion theft after a North Korean spy allegedly socially engineered an engineer and accessed a laptop, enabling withdrawals across multiple chains. Binance paused withdrawals, set aside $6.34 billion to cover losses, and later reopened withdrawals.

BTC Markets (1)

• The Binance attackers reportedly swept 18,000 bitcoin and other assets, then used stablecoins in DeFi to borrow ETH and Solana before stablecoin freezes blocked that route. The guest notes Bitcoin fell below $77,000 but remained above a key long-term moving average, echoing past exchange shocks that preceded a market bottom.

Protocol (1)

• The guest argues Bitcoin’s limited protocol surface reduces security risk compared with chains built around more complex smart-contract systems. The Binance attack reportedly used Ethereum’s EIP-7702 delegation feature, which lets ordinary accounts act like smart contracts.

Coding (1)

• A Coinbase exercise pointed frontier AI models at Bitcoin Core for weeks and produced two minor bugs, both since patched. The guest says the result reinforces Bitcoin’s status as a heavily reviewed codebase with a comparatively small attack surface.

Israel (4)

• Dadal Kurd says Israel’s October 27 election offers Palestinians no contender who supports ending the occupation or Gaza war; a change of government could still alter how severely Palestinians face state and settler violence.
• Dadal Kurd describes both Israeli political blocs as committed to maintaining control over Palestinians. The opposition criticizes Netanyahu over security failures and costs, while figures including Eisenkot and Bennett still support West Bank settlement or annexation.
• Dadal Kurd says Palestinian citizens face rising repression, organized crime and gun violence, while West Bank Palestinians face settler attacks, demolitions and land loss. A less extreme government might curb some vigilantes, but annexation and permanent Israeli security control remain broadly accepted.
• Dadal Kurd says Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew after Ben-Gvir’s camp sought to disqualify him for an article analyzing October 7; the Attorney General backed the ban, and parties across the Zionist spectrum supported it, raising fears of a precedent against Palestinian candidates.

Elections (13)

• The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs 61; parties need 3.25% of the vote to win representation. Polls put each main bloc near 50 seats, leaving Arab parties pivotal even as opposition leaders rule out governing with them.
• Dadal Kurd outlines four possible election outcomes: a hung parliament and repeat vote, an opposition minority government backed externally by Palestinian parties, defections or a unity government, or an outright majority if small parties miss the threshold.
• James Stout says the DOJ claimed 20,000 California voter registrations belonged to likely non-citizens and sought to sequester ballots shortly before Election Day. The Ninth Circuit dismissed the administration’s appeal, while a judge warned that the effort risked disenfranchising valid voters.
• James Stout says Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe and Cam Higby face felony charges after disguising themselves to test Minnesota’s voter-vouching rules. Their video showed them impersonating voters, including using another real voter’s identity.
• Garrison Davis says AI political advertising is growing quickly, with many ads using deepfakes of real politicians and few carrying disclaimers. The Wesleyan Media Project found most identified AI ads were sponsored by Republican candidates or groups.
• The host says a Ken Paxton ad used a photorealistic deepfake of James Tallarico reading stitched, paraphrased quotes he never said, including fabricated Bible passages. Its AI disclosure appeared only in tiny text at the end.
• A Ted Cruz-linked super PAC, Frontline Action, targeted James Fishback with AI ads portraying an anti-Israel gathering and a talking-fish skit. The host describes the campaign as a fight between pro-Israel Republicans and the party’s anti-Israel faction.
• A Frontline Action ad targeting Abdul El-Said falsely grouped Hasan Piker with El-Said’s family and used anti-Arab tropes linking them to terrorism and the Muslim Brotherhood. Margaret calls the ad post-9/11 racism.
• A North Carolina congressional candidate used AI footage to attack Jamie Agar over drag performances: real footage was altered to add a pride flag, then used as the basis for fabricated scenes with drag queens, without a disclosure.
• Bruce Blakeman has posted at least 22 AI ads since April, including deepfakes of Kathy Hochul and Mamdani. One framed Hochul as a medication spokesperson; another falsely portrayed her offering free healthcare to stigmatized groups, without the disclosure New York law requires.
• The host sorts political AI ads into realistic visuals replacing stock footage, satirical skits, and fabricated scandal scenes. Realistic quote-reading deepfakes can mislead by stripping context, while satire may exploit First Amendment protections.
• The host says 31 states regulate AI or deepfakes in political ads; Maryland bans misleading election deepfakes, while California and Texas prohibit deceptive or harmful ones within 30 days of an election. Two federal bills remain pending, and overly broad rules risk First Amendment challenges.
• A 2026 Communication Research study found that political deepfakes lowered support for targeted candidates even when viewers knew the videos were fake. The host says disclosure alone cannot prevent that delegitimizing effect.

Labor (8)

• Pam Sweetland-Hallis, Andrew D. Ferguson and Elizabeth Coppice-Duclos describe the IWW as an all-industries, volunteer-led union organized around worker control. Members make workplace decisions directly, and organizers support campaigns rather than negotiate over workers’ heads.
• The IWW’s North American regional election fills administrative and committee roles, while most substantive decisions happen at branch meetings. Guests say low participation leaves vacancies and gives active members an unusually large influence over the union.
• Andrew D. Ferguson says Houston’s IWW branch had to de-charter because nobody could serve as secretary, while Portland rebuilt through outreach and found new organizing leads. He argues branches need different support, from recruitment to help processing campaigns.
• Elizabeth Coppice-Duclos and Andrew D. Ferguson accuse the current IWW administration of disrespecting members, obstructing campaigns and treating officers as leaders rather than stewards. Ferguson says the board removed him from office after he criticized its handling of a committee’s finances.
• The IWW candidates say national officers should connect branches, support organizing and protect member rights, not dictate local priorities. They criticize budget cuts that leave committees and campaigns unfunded, arguing visible support can help rebuild membership and revenue.
• Kim Kelly recounts cemetery workers’ strikes as powerful but politically risky leverage. New York cemetery workers struck in 1949 and 1975, while Liverpool workers ended their 1979 action quickly after public backlash over unburied bodies helped conservatives attack Labour.
• Kim Kelly says strikes by morgue and funeral workers expose how essential death-care labor is. Philadelphia’s 2025 municipal strike overwhelmed the morgue, while a 2011 Cook County backlog revealed unsafe storage and severe staffing and funding failures.
• Kim Kelly recounts a 1964 New York funeral workers’ strike that won wage increases after bosses struggled to handle the workload. She also describes 1852 coffin makers joining a broader eight-hour-day movement and winning concessions.

History (2)

• Carlos Barrios Polanco argues the Puerto Rican chupacabra story grew from animal attacks, a likely cinematic influence and sensational reporting. Madeline Tolentino’s detailed 1995 account resembled the creature Sil from Species, released shortly before her sighting.
• Barrios Polanco connects chupacabra stories to Puerto Rico’s U.S. military presence, past government abuses and economic strain. He says livestock losses during a severe drought gave rural communities a tangible monster to blame amid colonialism and hardship.

Media (1)

• Barrios Polanco says Puerto Rican tabloids amplified unverified livestock attacks into a mass-media scare, while urban and international coverage portrayed rural residents as credulous. Mayor José Chemo Soto used a highly publicized chupacabra hunt to build political visibility.

Society (1)

• Barrios Polanco says chupacabra sightings spread across Latin America as a symbol for economic dislocation and state violence. In Mexico, he links the panic to NAFTA-era changes that enabled communal land privatization, displaced rural communities and increased unemployment.

War (1)

• James Stout reports that El Salvador sent troops to Haiti after four Salvadoran UN task-force members went missing. He also reports a death in ICE detention, Iraqi prison sentences for French Islamic State members, and separate Jordanian and Israeli operations in Syria.

Corruption (5)

• Margaret says Albania’s two dominant parties, center-left and center-right, have both pursued privatization and corruption. The country’s communist dictatorship ended in multiparty elections; later, pyramid schemes collapsed and helped trigger a revolt against corruption.
• Margaret says Albania has about 2.5 million people, and roughly a third of the country has emigrated, with 1.1 million Albanian-born people living abroad. Edi Rama has led the Socialist Party government since 2013 and is in his fourth term.
• Margaret says Jared Kushner’s resort plans for protected wetlands and the island of Sazan became a protest flashpoint. After a security guard beat and threatened a protester in front of police, demonstrators focused their anger on corruption, privatization, and police violence.
• Margaret describes the Flamingo protests as a broad movement against both Edi Rama and Sali Berisha, uniting people around demands to jail both leaders. After 130 days of peaceful demonstrations, a student strike on October 13 preceded escalation and a violent state crackdown.
• Margaret says Albanian police used chemical weapons, water cannons, and baton rounds, while authorities detained protesters, restricted gatherings, and blocked some people from leaving the country. She sees a possible opening for assemblies and counterpower, but says the movement has no agreed plan for what follows Rama.

BTC Markets (4)

• The host argues Bitcoin benefits when central banks devalue fiat currencies, while the current market remains range-bound around $79,000 to $81,500.
• The host reported Bitcoin at $81,370, a $1.64 trillion market cap, and 1,293 transactions in Clark’s mempool; mempool.space showed 57,846 unconfirmed transactions.
• Jason Calacanis predicts Bitcoin will never set another all-time high and says investors should favor AI; the host counters that Bitcoin is money and can coexist with AI investments.
• The host says Bitcoin-backed loan rates are falling as lending capital grows, and argues that rates below home-equity credit would make Bitcoin more attractive collateral because lenders can liquidate it continuously.

Inflation (1)

• The host says Trump’s stated willingness to tolerate high inflation strengthens Bitcoin’s monetary case, while AI-driven productivity does not remove the need to store wealth in hard money.

Startups (1)

• The hosts disagree on Anthropic’s prospects: one expects AI firms to face a shakeout, while the other says its S-1 looked stronger than feared and argues missing Q3 figures reflect filing deadlines.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Paul Kedrosky’s bear case is that projected AI infrastructure spending needs enormous revenue to earn an adequate return; he also argues frontier labs must assess how many customers need frontier-level models.

Safety (3)

• The hosts flag Anthropic’s concentrated control as a governance concern: its team retains majority ownership, while a five-person trust appoints the board despite the company’s stated risk of catastrophic harm.
• The host says scammers recruit teenagers through Roblox and Discord to call victims and steal Bitcoin, sometimes with Russian involvement; the host urges people not to answer unknown callers.
• Coinbase tested five leading models with 16 agents against Bitcoin Core code and found two minor issues; the hosts say AI-assisted review supports faster patching, while warning developers not to surrender independent judgment.

Models (1)

• Lula promised sovereign Brazilian AI powered by domestic renewable energy; the host questions whether Brazil can create the economic conditions to deliver it and warns that state-controlled AI could shape permitted information.

Elections (1)

• The host treats Senator Alex Padilla’s call to investigate Elon Musk without citing a specific crime as a warning sign of political targeting, and says socialist proposals in New York will face budget and implementation limits.

Israel (1)

• Israel’s election produced no clear governing majority, leaving coalition negotiations ahead; the host notes a record showing for Arab parties and says both likely governing blocs oppose a two-state solution and take a hard line on Iran.

Protocol (2)

• Bitcoin Core disclosed two denial-of-service vulnerabilities involving unbounded memory growth; both were patched, and the hosts urged node operators to update while describing the flaws as medium severity.
• Layer 2 Labs delayed its eCash fork-related release after Bitcoin Core’s vulnerability fixes and told node and pool operators to update before the fork point; the hosts support testing drivechains but dispute their proposed economics and trust assumptions.

Privacy (1)

• The hosts discussed PISA, a regtest prototype combining PayJoin with cross-input signature aggregation to make transaction ownership harder to infer; PayJoin, Lightning, and ecash already offer privacy tools, while PISA would require a soft fork for mainnet.

Coding (1)

• A GitHub deletion removed private forks of a startup’s repository after Anthropic acquired the original owner; the startup recovered its code from an employee’s laptop, exposing the risk of relying on a hosted repository alone.

Custody (1)

• Google previewed an MPC custody service for financial institutions, with key shares held in separate hardware enclaves; the hosts see it as Fireblocks competition but stress that Google’s coordination layer differs from native Bitcoin multisig and FROST.

Markets (1)

• The hosts connect institutional custody and tokenization efforts to always-on markets: ICE invested in Trade.xyz, a Hyperliquid-based derivatives venue, while Stan Druckenmiller’s first tweet promoted Hyperliquid.

Regulation (1)

• The host says Fairshake remains active in election spending and Senator Bill Hagerty continues to push market-structure legislation; the host also notes a Thai court ruling that Bitcoin can be owned, transferred, and stolen as property.

Social Media (1)

• The hosts warn that algorithm-driven posts about grid shutdowns and election emergencies can amplify panic; one host recalls New York blackouts becoming dangerous after the first day, while acknowledging the city has handled outages before.

Media (1)

• The hosts briefly discussed Kanye West’s apology op-ed and uncertainty about which venues will book his tour; they also recalled seeing Daft Punk and speculated that the group could reunite for a lucrative tour.

War (2)

• Luke Gromen says he underestimated how slowly Hormuz disruptions would affect the economy: China cut demand and drew down strategic reserves, while the United States and other Western countries released reserves. Fertilizer unaffordability could reduce crop yields next year, delaying food inflation while initially weakening crop prices.
• Gromen argues Iran can prolong the conflict by exhausting US air-defense missiles faster than the United States can replace them; he says Iran understands that resupply constraint and may receive help from Russia or China. He doubts the United States would deploy troops without air superiority.

Energy (2)

• Gromen says attacks on refineries could keep refining capacity constrained long after the conflict, even as reserve releases and China’s recovering purchases complicate the crude-supply picture. Diesel prices are nearing $200 a barrel in some regions, but he says he cannot explain why crude has not risen further.
• Ceresna said oil repeatedly recovered after headline-driven pullbacks, leaving crude in a decisive uptrend and potentially pricing in renewed post-election escalation. He identified $120 as a WTI upside reference if the trend continued; Gromen separately questioned how crude could stay elevated amid reserve releases and refinery outages.

Iran (1)

• Gromen says Iran’s leverage comes from the bond market: rising yields could constrain US policy before the United States can force Iran to stop. He cited a 10-year yield that rose from 3.94% to 5.3%, then said it had eased.

Markets (4)

• Gromen called a 20-basis-point intraday fall in the 10-year yield unusually large and out of step with gold, oil, Bitcoin, and the dollar. He speculated that investors might anticipate election uncertainty or rapid fiscal cuts if the administration loses, but said he did not know the cause.
• Ceresna said gold lacked buyers near $4,000 and remained in a short-term distribution pattern, with a technical breakdown risking another 5% to 10% decline. He remained bullish long term but said a macro catalyst was needed for a trend reversal.
• Ceresna said crowded bullish positioning in copper had not produced a new high over three months, leaving the trade vulnerable if price broke below $650. He viewed a test near $670 as a decision point and stayed neutral until the chart showed accumulation.
• Ceresna said the USDA raised its corn production forecast, weakening the scarcity case after speculators had built bullish positions. He reported heavy selling through both long liquidation and new shorts, with corn prices falling as traders were shaken out.

Elections (1)

• Gromen says a contested or prolonged election could unsettle risk assets, while a Democratic sweep could leave spending largely intact through congressional bargaining. He sees both election uncertainty and AI-related credit concerns as possible reasons for the recent equity-market turbulence.

Labor (1)

• Gromen says AI-related job losses could weaken consumer borrowers’ ability to repay mortgages, credit-card balances, and auto loans. He cited layoff plans at Kroger, American Express, Barclays, and Microsoft as evidence that white-collar employment risk is spreading.

Banking (3)

• Gromen estimates that a 5% default rate on consumer debt would equal about $1 trillion, or roughly 40% of US banks’ $2.6 trillion equity base. He warns that AI-driven job losses could turn consumer credit into a larger banking risk than the AI companies’ own financing.
• Gromen says consumer-credit losses could force banks to restrict lending, issue equity, or sell Treasuries, adding pressure to government financing. He keeps 30% of his liquid net worth in cash and Treasury bills because he sees policy support for markets but cannot predict how the risks resolve.
• Patrick Ceresna recommended a Capital One bear put spread to express the risk that AI-related job losses could weaken consumer credit. He said the stock was near its 50-day moving average and that low implied volatility also made an outright put worth considering.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Gromen says an AI investment bust could trigger recession, lower tax receipts, and sharply higher Treasury issuance; he argues a brief bond rally would likely reverse when borrowing needs become clear. In his scenario, the Fed would ultimately have to buy Treasuries, which he calls debt monetization despite official denials.

Models (1)

• Gromen says the administration has already restricted DeepSeek from government programs and their contractors, creating a protective moat for US AI firms despite its anti-regulation stance. He also says Washington discussed contingency plans for supporting AI if its financing collapsed.

Safety (1)

• Erik Townsend cited Anthropic’s IPO filing, which warns that advanced AI could pose catastrophic or existential risks without safeguards. Gromen connected that disclosure to the political conflict over whether the government should support AI as a national-security priority.

Society (1)

• Gromen warns that AI-driven job loss could fuel social unrest, especially if a growing, diverse US population faces fewer well-paid jobs. He expects the political consequences to intensify in 2027 and cites Peter Turchin’s account of elite overproduction and wealth inequality as recurring sources of instability.

Big Tech (1)

• Patrick Ceresna said mixed megacap earnings offered no clear bullish signal: Microsoft rose while Alphabet fell, and AI spending was under scrutiny. He cited Microsoft’s positive free cash flow against Alphabet’s negative figure and said the Nasdaq’s bear-flag setup and the S&P 500’s systematic sell zones made follow-through important.

Fed (1)

• Ceresna said the Fed delivered the hawkish hold markets expected, with no major repricing in yields. He said the dollar’s uptrend remained intact without a dovish pivot, while the euro near its 52-week lows and a break below 1.11 could drive further dollar strength.

Elections (5)

• Noga Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats but lost ground, leaving his bloc short of a government; the opposition has a majority on paper, but may lack the leverage to form one.
• Tarnopolsky says opposition voters favor governing with Arab parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List; she cites an exit poll showing this, and says even about 45% of Netanyahu voters accepted Arab participation in government.
• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu and Likud pushed anti-Arab messages throughout election day, including an AI-manipulated image already debunked by Fake Reporter; about 10% of votes from temporary polling sites remained uncounted.
• The House Democratic report alleges Trump participated in Epstein’s abuse of young women and says federal officials suppressed evidence; Emily says the report links earlier allegations to Epstein, while Ryan Grimm recommends a special counsel led by Thomas Massie.
• Democrats are using Epstein-file votes in Senate ads, arguing Republicans protected donors and concealed abuse; Ryan Grimm says the issue can mobilize Democrats and independents while depressing Republican turnout, and cited at least $20 million in Senate ad spending.

Israel (2)

• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu has sought another conflict with Iran and could use his caretaker period to expand Israeli action in Gaza; she sees continued West Bank violence as likely, despite limits on a caretaker prime minister’s powers.
• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu normalized anti-Arab rhetoric: election-day campaigning she describes as illegal drew only a small fine in an earlier cycle, while cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had 13 hate-crime and terror convictions.

Corruption (1)

• The report adds a rape allegation from Swiss model Beatrice Kuehl, who says Trump promised visa and NYU help before assaulting her; Emily notes that James Patterson’s 2017 book had already discussed Epstein’s NYU connections, challenging the report’s claim that the link was not public.

Society (2)

• The report also recounts allegations from Stacey Williams, Jill Harth, and Ivana Trump, plus claims involving underage girls; the accounts differ in severity, and Harth later called her allegations embellished and said she might vote for Trump.
• Other accounts in the report describe Maxwell presenting women to Trump, Epstein’s birthday-book joke about selling a 20-year-old to Trump for $22,500, Maria Farmer’s account of Trump mistaking her for a younger girl, and a Russian model’s later flight with Maxwell and Prince Andrew.