AI campaign ads surge as rules struggle to keep up

Elections (14)

• Rich Barris says Florida’s governor’s race is unusually close: Byron Donalds trails in early voting and needs a strong Election Day turnout, while Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by a wider margin.
• Rich Barris uses voter-file sampling, phone interviews, and online opt-in panels in a mixed-mode poll. He calls modern voter-file samples targeted random samples because many voters cannot be reached through traditional phone methods.
• Rich Barris argues that nonresponse can create apparent shifts in voter preference when supporters of one party temporarily stop answering polls. He says pollsters should improve outreach rather than compensate for missing Republicans by weighting them up.
• Rich Barris says low-propensity Trump voters who disapprove of Trump may not vote in the midterms, so pollsters should screen them out rather than assume every 2024 Trump voter will return. He says his latest national poll showed Harris ahead by one point.
• Rich Barris says pollsters face pressure to avoid results that could make them look like outliers, especially when Republican-leaning misses carry reputational costs. He says he had Democratic leads of 11 to 12 points before other firms moved closer to his numbers.
• Rich Barris says surging Hispanic early voting in Texas signals trouble for Republicans, including Ken Paxton, because voters who backed Republicans before may now be dissatisfied. He warned that winning new Hispanic voters required sustained relationship-building.
• Rich Barris says Florida’s Hispanic voters are not a single bloc: Venezuelans in South Florida are holding up better for Republicans than Cubans, while the I-4 corridor is swinging sharply toward Democrats. He says former Trump voters in the sample now reject Republicans.
• Rich Barris says increased Black turnout could make deep-red Southern states unexpectedly competitive, especially if younger Black voters return to strong Democratic support while white turnout falls. He cites Mississippi’s rural Black Belt as a possible vulnerability.
• Ryan Girduski expects a Democratic swing to vary sharply by state, with stronger minority and youth early turnout in Florida, Georgia, and Texas than in Ohio, Iowa, or Maine. Baz Shakir says young independents could decide close races, including Florida.
• Ryan Girduski and Baz Shakir praise James Talarico’s ad for turning Elon Musk’s political spending into a story about outside control of Texas. The ad claims Musk has spent over $180 million to defeat Talarico and wants influence over Texas land, water, and the Senate.
• Ryan Girduski says Saritha Komatireddy’s New York attorney general ad makes crime a cost-of-living issue by linking theft and fraud to insurance and healthcare costs. He also praises Susan Collins’s ad for pairing her Maine roots with her influence in the Senate.
• Baz Shakir describes Spencer Pratt’s Los Angeles mayoral ad as class politics: Pratt links his home’s destruction in a fire to alleged failures by city leaders and contrasts residents’ struggles with politicians’ homes.
• Baz Shakir argues that candidates should offer a positive vision instead of only answering attacks about transgender issues, socialism, or immigration. He says a South Florida Republican’s criticism of Trump over ICE gave her immigration stance more credibility.
• Ryan Girduski says Senator Roger Marshall made his own billing-practices defense video after ignoring warnings, lacking a campaign organization, and being caught unprepared by weak polling. Marshall posted the video himself after his campaign team declined to air it.

Elections (8)

• The hosts said Trump canceled planned campaign stops in Kansas and Minnesota, then reversed course and scheduled rallies in Iowa and Kansas. Republican sources told the Washington Sun the rallies may be hurting candidates; polls showed Democrat Hamilton leading in Kansas, though the Washington Post warned its own poll had serious sampling problems.
• J.D. Vance answered a young voter's question about housing costs with a joke about Ohio politician John Husted, then touted a bipartisan bill restricting Wall Street home purchases that Trump had vetoed. The hosts said the exchange showed Vance ignoring the voter's concern and echoing Trump's campaign style.
• Michigan Chronicle reporter Samuel Robinson said Abdul El-Sayed had momentum and expected overwhelming Black support in Detroit, while acknowledging some Republicans would vote for El-Sayed over his positions on Israel and Gaza. Robinson expected turnout to exceed the 2018 non-incumbent election and said early-vote returns could take until 2 or 3 a.m. to count.
• Robinson said Israel and Gaza are especially salient for Michigan Jewish and Muslim voters, but not the top issue for all voters. He described tension between some Black and Arab communities, warned that Arab American voters may be stereotyped through local disputes, and said Mike Rogers's campaign faced backlash over anti-Muslim rhetoric from some allies.
• Mai Vang and Angela Gonzalez-Torres challenged Democratic incumbents in California, with Vang saying AIPAC-aligned groups spent heavily against her over her Gaza ceasefire advocacy. Vang said Doris Matsui had loaned her campaign $7 million; Gonzalez-Torres said Jimmy Gomez had accepted substantial AIPAC support and used congressional funds for campaign mailers.
• Vang said Sacramento's district had shifted from a Democratic advantage of 22 points to 7 after Proposition 50, and described building a campaign with more than 1,000 volunteers. Gonzalez-Torres said DSA-LA helped organize canvassing and community campaigns; Vang cited a 700-person canvass organized with Sacramento DSA and UAW.
• California candidates said federal election probes and subpoenas were being used to cast doubt on voting, while a judge rejected an effort to block ballots from roughly 20,000 people alleged to be noncitizens. Vang said 22% of ballots had been returned in her district and urged eligible voters not to be intimidated.
• The hosts discussed two election tactics: a Texas Republican women's group sent students flyers urging gender transition to provoke trans panic, while Alaska's ballot-name controversy drew scrutiny over possible links to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Mary Peltola's campaign. Emily said deceptive tactics can deepen public distrust in elections regardless of party.

Iran (1)

• Senator Chris Murphy called the administration's Iran war plans “insane,” warning that attacks on civilian infrastructure and Gulf oil capacity could trigger escalation and prolong damage even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened. The hosts also noted reports of missile defenses at Mar-a-Lago and military preparations for mass-casualty scenarios.

Custody (1)

• Binance disclosed that an attacker may have compromised a DevOps engineer’s laptop, gained access to withdrawal systems, and redirected a hot-wallet transaction through Ethereum’s EIP-7702 mechanism. The hosts reported that roughly $6.3 billion was stolen across blockchains in under 20 minutes, about $3 billion was frozen, and North Korean hackers were suspected.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• The hosts described a widening cyber risk: an AI agent reportedly accessed classified government systems through a contractor, while freezer systems were hacked at military commissaries and French grocery stores. They said six bases experienced freezer failures as the Pentagon prepared bases to operate without outside supplies for 90 days.

Big Tech (1)

• Alphabet said AI Mode was generating less advertising revenue than traditional search, even as Google increased monetization pressure on advertisers through broader matching of search terms. Alphabet spent $51.4 billion on capital investment in the third quarter, roughly two-thirds on servers and network equipment, while DoorDash had received only about 200 orders through Meta’s Muse AI.

Markets (1)

• The hosts linked a broad tech-stock selloff to weak earnings and questioned whether AI investment had become a bubble. They cited U.S. third-quarter growth of 3.4%, with 12.7% growth in nonresidential fixed investment and nearly 0.9 percentage points of GDP growth from information-processing equipment, while the S&P 500 remained heavily concentrated in major technology firms.

Health (1)

• Vang said she would prioritize restoring Medicaid and food-assistance cuts, then pursue oversight of the administration; Gonzalez-Torres emphasized cash assistance, immigrant protections, and long-term cost-of-living relief. Both backed organizing for Medicare for All and getting corporate money out of politics, while Vang also named abolishing ICE as a voter demand.

Media (1)

• Ryan said John Kiriakou has blamed journalist Matthew Cole for helping expose him after Kiriakou disclosed CIA torture, though Ryan had no firsthand knowledge of that case. Ryan said Cole's handling of Reality Winner's document was a reporting mistake, but prosecutors had other evidence linking Winner to the leak; the episode reinforced the need to protect sources and limit document details.

Israel (4)

• Dadal Kurd says Israel’s October 27 election offers Palestinians no contender who supports ending the occupation or Gaza war; a change of government could still alter how severely Palestinians face state and settler violence.
• Dadal Kurd describes both Israeli political blocs as committed to maintaining control over Palestinians. The opposition criticizes Netanyahu over security failures and costs, while figures including Eisenkot and Bennett still support West Bank settlement or annexation.
• Dadal Kurd says Palestinian citizens face rising repression, organized crime and gun violence, while West Bank Palestinians face settler attacks, demolitions and land loss. A less extreme government might curb some vigilantes, but annexation and permanent Israeli security control remain broadly accepted.
• Dadal Kurd says Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew after Ben-Gvir’s camp sought to disqualify him for an article analyzing October 7; the Attorney General backed the ban, and parties across the Zionist spectrum supported it, raising fears of a precedent against Palestinian candidates.

Elections (6)

• The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs 61; parties need 3.25% of the vote to win representation. Polls put each main bloc near 50 seats, leaving Arab parties pivotal even as opposition leaders rule out governing with them.
• Dadal Kurd outlines four possible election outcomes: a hung parliament and repeat vote, an opposition minority government backed externally by Palestinian parties, defections or a unity government, or an outright majority if small parties miss the threshold.
• Robert Evans says Lula won Brazil’s runoff after an organized online and in-person campaign countered Bolsonaro’s viral messaging. A WhatsApp channel directed followers to avoid boosting far-right posts, spread targeted search terms and mobilize voters.
• Robert Evans says Flávio Bolsonaro fled Brazil for Miami after losing the election and facing corruption investigations. A Peter Thiel-supported conservative group urged U.S. sanctions against Brazil, while Trump questioned the election’s appearance without alleging fraud.
• James Stout says the DOJ claimed 20,000 California voter registrations belonged to likely non-citizens and sought to sequester ballots shortly before Election Day. The Ninth Circuit dismissed the administration’s appeal, while a judge warned that the effort risked disenfranchising valid voters.
• James Stout says Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe and Cam Higby face felony charges after disguising themselves to test Minnesota’s voter-vouching rules. Their video showed them impersonating voters, including using another real voter’s identity.

Labor (8)

• Pam Sweetland-Hallis, Andrew D. Ferguson and Elizabeth Coppice-Duclos describe the IWW as an all-industries, volunteer-led union organized around worker control. Members make workplace decisions directly, and organizers support campaigns rather than negotiate over workers’ heads.
• The IWW’s North American regional election fills administrative and committee roles, while most substantive decisions happen at branch meetings. Guests say low participation leaves vacancies and gives active members an unusually large influence over the union.
• Andrew D. Ferguson says Houston’s IWW branch had to de-charter because nobody could serve as secretary, while Portland rebuilt through outreach and found new organizing leads. He argues branches need different support, from recruitment to help processing campaigns.
• Elizabeth Coppice-Duclos and Andrew D. Ferguson accuse the current IWW administration of disrespecting members, obstructing campaigns and treating officers as leaders rather than stewards. Ferguson says the board removed him from office after he criticized its handling of a committee’s finances.
• The IWW candidates say national officers should connect branches, support organizing and protect member rights, not dictate local priorities. They criticize budget cuts that leave committees and campaigns unfunded, arguing visible support can help rebuild membership and revenue.
• Kim Kelly recounts cemetery workers’ strikes as powerful but politically risky leverage. New York cemetery workers struck in 1949 and 1975, while Liverpool workers ended their 1979 action quickly after public backlash over unburied bodies helped conservatives attack Labour.
• Kim Kelly says strikes by morgue and funeral workers expose how essential death-care labor is. Philadelphia’s 2025 municipal strike overwhelmed the morgue, while a 2011 Cook County backlog revealed unsafe storage and severe staffing and funding failures.
• Kim Kelly recounts a 1964 New York funeral workers’ strike that won wage increases after bosses struggled to handle the workload. She also describes 1852 coffin makers joining a broader eight-hour-day movement and winning concessions.

History (2)

• Carlos Barrios Polanco argues the Puerto Rican chupacabra story grew from animal attacks, a likely cinematic influence and sensational reporting. Madeline Tolentino’s detailed 1995 account resembled the creature Sil from Species, released shortly before her sighting.
• Barrios Polanco connects chupacabra stories to Puerto Rico’s U.S. military presence, past government abuses and economic strain. He says livestock losses during a severe drought gave rural communities a tangible monster to blame amid colonialism and hardship.

Media (1)

• Barrios Polanco says Puerto Rican tabloids amplified unverified livestock attacks into a mass-media scare, while urban and international coverage portrayed rural residents as credulous. Mayor José Chemo Soto used a highly publicized chupacabra hunt to build political visibility.

Society (1)

• Barrios Polanco says chupacabra sightings spread across Latin America as a symbol for economic dislocation and state violence. In Mexico, he links the panic to NAFTA-era changes that enabled communal land privatization, displaced rural communities and increased unemployment.

War (1)

• James Stout reports that El Salvador sent troops to Haiti after four Salvadoran UN task-force members went missing. He also reports a death in ICE detention, Iraqi prison sentences for French Islamic State members, and separate Jordanian and Israeli operations in Syria.

Corruption (5)

• Margaret says Albania’s two dominant parties, center-left and center-right, have both pursued privatization and corruption. The country’s communist dictatorship ended in multiparty elections; later, pyramid schemes collapsed and helped trigger a revolt against corruption.
• Margaret says Albania has about 2.5 million people, and roughly a third of the country has emigrated, with 1.1 million Albanian-born people living abroad. Edi Rama has led the Socialist Party government since 2013 and is in his fourth term.
• Margaret says Jared Kushner’s resort plans for protected wetlands and the island of Sazan became a protest flashpoint. After a security guard beat and threatened a protester in front of police, demonstrators focused their anger on corruption, privatization, and police violence.
• Margaret describes the Flamingo protests as a broad movement against both Edi Rama and Sali Berisha, uniting people around demands to jail both leaders. After 130 days of peaceful demonstrations, a student strike on October 13 preceded escalation and a violent state crackdown.
• Margaret says Albanian police used chemical weapons, water cannons, and baton rounds, while authorities detained protesters, restricted gatherings, and blocked some people from leaving the country. She sees a possible opening for assemblies and counterpower, but says the movement has no agreed plan for what follows Rama.

Elections (17)

• David Bessie calls himself an anti-MAGA, center-right Republican who retired to Maine three years ago; he says Trump’s presidencies have been disastrous and the Republican Party corrupt, self-dealing, and incompetent.
• David Bessie criticizes Democrats for Biden-era immigration policy, union influence, and relying on spending rather than problem-solving; he also thinks the party is moving further left instead of toward the center.
• David Bessie sees Susan Collins as thoughtful and willing to cross party lines, but worries her reelection could help MAGA Republicans; his ideal Senate would be tied 50-50, leaving Collins as a swing vote.
• Jess Bidgood says Chuck Schumer backed Janet Mills against Collins, but Maine Democrats gravitated to Graham Platner before his campaign collapsed after a rape accusation; Troy Jackson became the replacement despite limited statewide electoral experience.
• Jess Bidgood describes Collins’s pre-Trump brand as pragmatic governance, bipartisan work, and bringing federal money to Maine; Collins says funding helped a Bangor manufacturing plant that will create 75 jobs.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins has kept distance from Trump and often breaks with Republicans, but Democrats argue her dissent rarely blocks his priorities; they point to her Kavanaugh vote and her vote advancing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins’s moderate reputation, constituent-focused spending, and occasional breaks with Trump keep her competitive despite strong national headwinds; Democrats have won Maine’s popular vote in at least the last three presidential elections.
• Jess Bidgood says John E. Sununu is campaigning in New Hampshire against the Iran war and Canada tariffs, while distancing himself from Trump; Sununu says he has never met the president.
• New Hampshire remains a difficult Senate state for Republicans: Democrats won recent races by wide margins, and a New York Times-Siena poll had Sununu trailing Chris Pappas by about five points after an earlier poll put Sununu ahead by a couple.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins and Sununu are testing a route to victory through independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats willing to cross party lines, rather than relying only on MAGA turnout.
• Ashley Hinson shifted from promising to be Trump’s strongest Senate ally to running ads about bipartisan work, but Jess Bidgood says Hinson lacks Collins’s long record of independence.
• Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar publicly warned Trump that immigration enforcement had gone too far, arguing Hispanic voters felt betrayed; her district is 70 percent Hispanic.
• Kansas Republican Roger Marshall has criticized an ICE raid’s impact on farmers and pushed back on Trump’s threat to a Canadian aircraft maker, while still urging Trump voters to turn out; Democrat Adam Hamilton is courting Republicans frustrated with tariffs, diesel costs, and farm policy.
• Jess Bidgood says Democrat James Talarico has led Ken Paxton in multiple Texas polls, despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton; the result could test whether Trump’s backing can still carry a flawed candidate in a deep-red state.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins winning while Paxton loses could give Republicans permission to distance themselves from Trump, though Trump would retain fundraising power and influence over the party apparatus and RNC.
• Israel’s election count showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot had secured a parliamentary majority; Arab parties recorded their strongest showing ever and may be pivotal to forming a government.
• Israel’s election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, the first national vote since Hamas’s October 7 assault; turnout reached a record high.