Democrats’ historic wave redraws the political map

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Carlson argues data centers became a winning Democratic issue because voters saw them as ugly, resource-intensive projects that could serve surveillance more than local communities; he says Greg Abbott backed them while his opponent campaigned against them.

Media (2)

• Carlson accuses Fox News of helping sell the Iran war directly to Trump through programming he watched, and says nearly the entire lineup supported it. He also says Fox’s survey showed Iran mattered to only a small share of voters.
• Carlson says political and media narratives rewrite events as they unfold, making later policy decisions less informed. He compares honest historical accounting to aviation crash investigations and argues that obscuring the reasons for past Middle East wars enabled repeated interventions.

War (1)

• Carlson warns that Russia and Iran may exploit Trump’s domestic weakness while he retains executive authority, citing threats against the United States and its allies, including Ukraine, Europe, and the Gulf states.

Society (1)

• Carlson argues that government should apply equal standards to individuals regardless of race or religion, and says both anti-Semitism and anti-white or anti-Muslim discrimination deserve opposition. He claims discrimination against white people remains embedded in university, hiring, and contracting policy.

Elections (1)

• Baris says Republican gains among Jewish voters were small and that most Jewish voters opposed the Iran war; he reports Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Jewish vote despite Republican attacks framing him as a threat. Baris calls the gains too small to justify alienating younger and other voters.

Corruption (1)

• Carlson calls the Epstein files a test of equal accountability, arguing that officials from either party must support their release. He questions Jared Kushner’s Middle East and Ukraine work alongside private fundraising, and says powerful figures may escape scrutiny while junior staff take the blame.

Psychology (2)

• Carlson argues that Republican candidates weakened their appeal to men by projecting vanity, indecision, and performative toughness instead of restraint and decisiveness. He contrasts the party’s campaign imagery with candidates he portrays as more grounded and masculine.
• Carlson says political drama and social-media framing can make people judge their lives by national events instead of relationships and daily circumstances. He argues that a slower political pace would give people room to think after years of crisis-driven attention.

Elections (8)

• Ezra Klein cautions Democrats against treating progressive candidates’ electoral performance as a verdict on their ideas or value. He calls Abdul El-Sayed impressive, but says his roughly seven-point win in a Democratic-leaning environment was not the strongest evidence for how to win new states.
• Maine’s 2nd District illustrates the cost of driving out a useful coalition member, Ezra Klein argues: Jared Golden, the most conservative House Democrat, retired after pressure from the left, and Matt Dunlap’s race for the seat remained close even in a large Democratic wave.
• Aaron Redica questions how much damage it took to turn voters against Trump; Ezra Klein answers that voters punish governments when life gets worse, regardless of a politician’s style. The transcript also notes that Trump benefited from a strong economy during much of his first term.
• Ezra Klein says midterm waves have no fixed sequel: Democrats’ 2006 gains preceded Barack Obama’s 2008 win and a 60-seat Senate majority, but Republicans’ 1994 and 2010 waves were followed by Bill Clinton’s 1996 and Obama’s 2012 victories. Democrats also won after the 2018 midterms.
• Ezra Klein describes John Ossoff as a disciplined, attention-savvy politician who has proved he can win in a competitive state. Democratic gains also extended to governorships; the transcript says Democrats now control states totaling 392 electoral votes.
• Ezra Klein says Democrats should balance investigations of Trump with practical legislation and agenda-building. Possible priorities include permitting reform, AI rules, immigration policy, healthcare, Medicare-for-more proposals and childcare; the party also needs to define a governing program for 2028.
• Elon Musk’s political spending failed to protect Republicans in Texas and may have backfired, Ezra Klein says; Musk spent $500 million, much of it in Texas. Democrats also campaigned against data centers, and nearly all proposed local moratoriums had passed as the episode was recorded.
• Ezra Klein argues that Trumpism never formed a coherent ideology because Trump prioritizes personal control and loyalty over policy consistency. He says factions will blame one another after the losses, while J.D. Vance may present himself as a version of Trumpism without the war despite weak electoral results and low popularity.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Ezra Klein sees major risks ahead: an AI capital-spending boom could collapse, the Iran war could widen, and conflicts involving Israel, Russia and Ukraine, or China and Taiwan could escalate. He also flags Trump’s health and the possibility of AI systems hacking into China.

Corruption (1)

• Ezra Klein says congressional investigations should focus on a few legible threads, especially money flowing to Trump, his family and associates. He names the Qatari jet, Jared Kushner’s fund, crypto, contracts and the Trump family’s profits, alongside the dismantling of agencies including USAID and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Religion (1)

• Ezra Klein and Aaron Redica see an opening for a religious left that speaks explicitly about virtue and neighborly obligation. They praise James Talarico, Adam Hamilton, Abdul El-Sayed and John Ossoff, while criticizing cruelty in the campaigns of Ken Paxton and Vivek Ramaswamy and Roger Marshall’s treatment of patients.

Elections (9)

• A Pew poll found AI ranked below the economy, democracy, and several other issues in voter importance. Opposition to local data centers was much broader than concern about AI as an abstract issue.
• Pew found opposition to pro-data-center candidates across party lines, with stronger resistance among Democrats. Nathaniel Whittemore says the campaign issue was chiefly the local costs and control associated with data centers.
• NBC exit polling found data centers mattered to voters, but ranked below immigration, Iran, cost of living, and corruption. Democrats were twice as likely as Republicans to cite data centers as a major voting factor.
• Sherrod Brown and Abdul El-Sayed linked data centers to household costs, concentrated tech wealth, surveillance, and political power. Trump’s public defense of data centers left Republicans in tight races little room to break with him.
• Scott Wiener’s California House race put AI regulation in the spotlight; Wiener had sponsored SB 1047, whose provisions included developer liability and a mandatory kill switch. The bill influenced later California laws that became models for other states.
• Ohio’s data-center plans gave Sherrod Brown a concrete campaign target: he attacked Jon Husted’s support for development and won back his Senate seat. Brown returned with 18 years of Senate experience and a sharper grievance against the tech industry after its spending against him.
• Texas’s governor’s race created a major uncertainty for data-center developers: Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott after Abbott paused new permits pending an energy and environmental review. Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium, ending tax subsidies, and protecting local electricity and water access.
• Jon Ossoff made data centers a symbol of tech oligarchy, corruption, and rising household costs, and won a second Senate term. Whittemore says Ossoff had done little beyond headline-friendly investigations, but his campaign could push him toward a larger AI policy role.
• Abdul El-Sayed campaigned against AI through concerns about job loss, economic disruption, surveillance, AI-powered warfare, and loss of control. He also raised the possibility that AI could be used to create a biological weapon.

Regulation (2)

• Nathaniel Whittemore expects Congress to avoid a sweeping federal AI framework or nationwide data-center moratorium, especially with Trump promising to veto Democratic legislation. He expects hearings and state-level restrictions to matter more immediately.
• Whittemore sees bipartisan openings for whistleblower protections, required incident reporting, stronger model-builder liability, and legal requirements for frontier-model testing. He also expects debate over data sovereignty, export controls, pausing development, and limits on recursive self-improvement.

Models (1)

• Whittemore argues that pressure for AI rules will rise as models gain capabilities, including capabilities for harmful uses. He sees broadly accepted baseline protections as a foundation for later, more contested rules.

AI Infrastructure (2)

• Data-center developers now have to earn local consent by limiting nondisclosure agreements, covering their own infrastructure and electricity costs, and offering community benefits. Whittemore expects some new leaders to pair enforceable local protections with a workable path for projects.
• Whittemore’s downside scenario is that expanding moratoriums and state actions cut off Wall Street funding, stall AI construction, bankrupt neoclouds, and trigger a wider downturn. A burst AI investment bubble could then shape the 2028 campaign alongside jobs, cybersecurity, and existential-risk concerns.

Religion (6)

• Adam Curry and Pastor Jimmy describe meeting the election results with prayer, Scripture, and trust in God rather than online panic; they urge Christians to pray for every officeholder and keep their daily lives steady.
• A YouVersion-led campaign put Bible messages on digital billboards in Times Square, Piccadilly Circus, and Osaka to open Global Bible Month; the hosts say YouVersion has passed a billion downloads.
• Pastor Jimmy recommends short, regular Bible reading and identifies the NIV as a readable balance, the NLT as especially clear for narrative passages, and the ESV as more scholarly; he also suggests reading one Proverb each day.
• Pastor Jimmy reports that Unite US drew nearly 600 students at the University of South Alabama, with 52 baptized afterward; the ministry takes revival events to college campuses.
• Adam Curry describes a prayer app in beta that lets users build prayer lists, schedule reminders, request prayer, and see needs on a map; Android users can sideload it, while the Apple version must pass review.
• Pastor Jimmy says Christian belief in Jesus’ victory over evil does not remove the need to resist temptation and manipulation; he urges people to recognize hostile online behavior, pause before replying, and avoid provoking spiritual conflict.

Elections (3)

• Adam Curry argues that election losses do not hand one party total control: Congress, the judiciary, and the executive have separate powers, and a Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote to remove a president.
• Adam Curry says campaign spending did not determine the result and claims markets have historically performed better under divided government; he cites gains of 16% with a divided Congress and 9% when one chamber is divided.
• Adam Curry says Texas Republican turnout matched previous years while Democratic turnout grew; he cites Gillespie County results of 73% for Paxton, 76% for Abbott, and 66% turnout.

Society (1)

• Adam Curry sees Gen Z’s interest in running clubs and recreational sports as a search for in-person community, especially as dating apps disappoint; he argues faith groups can meet young adults where they already gather.

Physics (1)

• Adam Curry explains that a wing stall means the wing stops producing enough lift, not that the engine stops; he says the Learjet 60 has a narrow speed margin in icing and unstable weather, making the crash consistent with poor judgment and weather, not a missile plot.

Media (1)

• Adam Curry rejects online claims that the Learjet crash involved missiles or crisis actors, saying the aircraft evidence points to a weather-related accident; the hosts also mention a fatal Spanish train crash and a Nigerian pastor’s killing and church members’ abduction.

Regulation (1)

• The FTC is seeking data from nine companies to investigate surveillance pricing and gig-worker pay; a 2025 investigation found different prices for the same Lyft ride and hotel room across devices.

Agents (1)

• Adam Curry praises personal AI assistants for connecting to calendars, email, and notifications, drafting messages for approval, and handling tasks such as scheduling and price comparisons; he says users can edit the assistant’s profile of them.

Open Source (1)

• Adam Curry predicts AI will shift toward open-source models running on personal devices, giving users more control over search and social feeds; he argues open systems make vulnerabilities visible and patchable, while warning that the shift could hurt Microsoft investors.

Elections (5)

• Krystal called Florida and Louisiana missed opportunities after national Democrats declined to invest in close races. Saagar argued that even $20 million to $50 million could have made Florida more competitive, while Bernie Sanders campaigned for Angie Nixon.
• Krystal said Alaska’s Senate race remained too close to call, with Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan nearly tied; ranked-choice tabulation would delay the final result. She also argued Nebraska independent Dan Osborn hurt his chances by refusing to say which party he would caucus with.
• Saagar said Republican spending could strengthen a favorable wave but could not manufacture votes. The panel said Elon Musk’s spending failed to protect Republicans in Texas, and that Musk himself became a campaign liability.
• Krystal said Zohran Mamdani’s affordability message gave Democrats a common economic frame: money in people’s pockets and opposition to billionaires. She said Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger adopted it, while Republican culture-war advertising, especially trans-focused ads, failed to move voters.
• Ryan urged Democrats to use their new leverage to negotiate concrete changes, including ending the Iran war and mandatory detention, restoring court hearings, and stopping deportations to Africa. Saagar pointed to Lyndon Johnson’s Senate strategy with Eisenhower as a model for extracting popular concessions rather than opposing everything.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Krystal argued that data-center opposition, concentrated tech wealth, labor displacement, and security failures could sustain a political coalition after Trump leaves office. She cited hacked systems, outages, and hospital disruptions as emerging risks, and warned that AI could be built to replace human labor.

Media (1)

• The hosts said Trump closely follows Fox News, complains about its polls and commentators, and would not commit to cabinet changes. They warned that blaming tariffs instead of the Iran war could keep Trump from hearing voters' opposition to the war.

Elections (4)

• Laura Loomer declared America effectively over, claiming Democrats would open the border, replace votes with those of undocumented immigrants, and impose communism and Sharia law. The hosts treated her post as an example of blaming critics for demoralizing the country.
• Caroline Sunshine argued that Trump’s 2024 message had been co-opted by Democrats, who campaigned on corruption, the economy, and sending less money to foreign wars. The hosts said Republicans’ attacks on Hassan Piker distracted from voters’ concerns about prices and the war.
• The hosts said Democrats should consider replacing Chuck Schumer as Senate leader, arguing that new members could unite across ideological lines against him. They pointed to candidates who had opposed his leadership and said voters expected a break from the party’s past.
• The hosts described anti-billionaire sentiment as a national political force and said tech wealth could not be rehabilitated with symbolic gestures. They cautioned that campaign money still matters, citing Will Lawrence’s costly race, but said spending has diminishing returns when voters reject a candidate’s message.

War (1)

• The hosts briefly cited reports of children tortured in dungeons in Ukraine, attributed to the Azov Battalion, alongside riots. They said major international crises were unfolding while domestic election coverage absorbed attention.

Iran (2)

• Democrats could use the approaching funding deadline to force a vote on the Iran war, Chris Van Hollen argued, including by withholding support for the National Defense Authorization Act if it enabled continued operations. The hosts said Chuck Schumer would face pressure to lead that fight.
• Chris Murphy called the administration’s Iran war plan insane, warning it could prolong and escalate the conflict, target civilian infrastructure, and damage US security and the rule of law. The hosts criticized Democrats for discussing a continuing resolution that would fund the war.

AI Infrastructure (2)

• Data-center ballot measures lost 41 to 0, with opposition around 67% to 80% in every cited case. The hosts linked resistance to noise, pollution, energy bills, local control, and corruption, and said candidates opposing data centers also won races.
• The hosts outlined possible AI policy paths: guardrails, limits on recursive self-improvement, a full moratorium, or a broader pause. They said states could restrict data centers and AI even if Trump vetoed federal limits, while suggesting less model spending might make AI firms profitable sooner.

Models (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed endorsed a full pause on frontier AI development, arguing that China’s work largely builds on US models and that both countries have an interest in avoiding uncontrolled recursive self-improvement. He also called for an international treaty and cooperation with China.

Elections (19)

• Krystal compared the possible Democratic wave with 2018, when Democrats won the popular vote by more than eight points; she argued today’s higher fuel prices, unpopular war, and Trump’s economic unpopularity could produce a larger backlash.
• Emily argued that pollsters may be undercounting voters who backed Obama and Trump over affordability and opposition to new wars, then could switch parties because those same issues now hurt Republicans.
• The hosts and panelists differed on whether habitual Republicans would cross over or stay home. Ryan argued Trump’s broken promises on prices and wars, alongside the Epstein files, could demoralize Republican voters as well as push some toward Democrats.
• Ryan compared Trump’s vulnerability with Harry Truman’s 1946 midterm, when anger at the president helped Republicans break up the New Deal coalition; he said today’s stronger partisan loyalty makes the comparison imperfect.
• Emily backed Kansas and Ohio Democrats partly on candidate quality, but predicted Texas and Nebraska would stay Republican. She said the prospect of a competitive Sherrod Brown race in Ohio alone signals serious trouble for Republicans.
• Ryan’s wave scenario put states beyond the usual battlegrounds in play, including Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina; he stressed that his confidence varied and singled out Arkansas as especially uncertain.
• Panelists said candidate quality could make close races break from national trends: they cited Sherrod Brown’s strength in Ohio, Ken Paxton’s problems in Texas, and Republican nominees’ vulnerabilities in South Carolina and Mississippi.
• Krystal said Black turnout across the Deep South was surging after a Supreme Court decision disrupted majority-minority districts, potentially affecting races in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.
• Panelists said Hispanic early voting in Texas was unusually strong, with many younger and first-time voters, and Saagar’s sources reported rural Republican weakness; they also said Florida Republicans were worried about early-vote patterns in the governor’s race.
• The panel warned against treating Kalshi and Polymarket election odds as reliable: research from Campaign for Accountability and Stop Gambling found the markets had not been very predictive during the 2026 primary cycle.
• Ryan said a Democratic Senate majority could face immediate pressure to stop funding the Iran war when government funding comes up in December; he said renewed combat operations could intensify calls for impeachment.
• Emily raised two unanswered questions in a Democratic Senate scenario: whether John Fetterman would caucus with Democrats if the chamber were tied, and where voters and lawmakers would stand on Chuck Schumer.
• Haley Stevens reversed course after Michigan’s Senate primary, endorsing Republican Mike Rogers and saying Abdul El-Sayed had made her unwelcome in his campaign. Her CNN interview failed to explain why she had supported El-Sayed shortly beforehand.
• Ryan said former Stevens staff described her fiancé, Jason, as a source of political advice that repeatedly failed in practice; he also cited reports of controlling behavior, which panelists treated as allegations rather than established facts.
• Ryan argued donor pressure helped drive Stevens’s reversal: he said major Democratic fundraisers preferred Republican control to a Democratic majority empowered by Democratic Socialists of America candidates, citing James Carville’s public remark.
• Emily said Stevens’s endorsement pulled attention from Rogers’s economic message and toward foreign policy and personal drama; Ryan added that it undercut attacks portraying El-Sayed as linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.
• Panelists criticized Stevens for invoking Israel and Black communities while endorsing Rogers, and said the appearance of people described as foreign agents at her event sharpened the controversy around his campaign.
• Krystal said recent Michigan polls showed El-Sayed winning 95 percent of Black voters and more Democrats unified behind him than Republicans behind Rogers; she said national coverage overstated Black dissatisfaction with El-Sayed.
• Panelists described Florida’s Senate and House contests as hard to assess because polling was sparse; they highlighted David Jolly, Angie Nixon, and Maria Elvira Salazar’s district as races to watch.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Krystal argued that AI could eventually unite voters across party lines against data centers, job losses, and tech-company power; Saagar said a Fox News poll placed AI above immigration as a voter priority.

Elections (5)

• Zachary Danini says Michigan may count its last 15-20% of ballots after 3 a.m., with late absentee votes from Detroit, Flint, Saginaw and Ann Arbor favoring Democrats. Michigan and Wisconsin still count some mail ballots late, while Pennsylvania and Georgia changed procedures after 2020 to count them earlier.
• Zachary Danini cautions that early-vote counts do not reveal candidate choice, but says first-time and infrequent voters are disproportionately Democratic. In North Carolina, registered Democratic youth are turning out at five times the rate of registered Republican youth, a reversal from similar turnout in 2024.
• Zachary Danini reports especially strong Hispanic early voting in Texas, North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia, and says Hispanic voters could make up about one in four Texas voters. He sees similar, lower-confidence turnout patterns in Arizona, Nevada, Iowa and Kansas, while Democratic voter bases differ sharply by state.
• Zachary Danini says North Carolina’s electorate could be up to 10 points bluer based on who is turning out, though registration does not prove vote choice. He says that electorate would have favored Harris by seven points, and cautions that this pattern is specific to North Carolina so far.
• Zachary Danini says candidate quality helped produce opposite outcomes in 2022: Republicans flipped New York’s 3rd District despite Biden winning it by double digits, while Joe Kent lost Washington’s 3rd District after a poor campaign. He cites Susan Collins as a strong candidate who can outperform her party’s environment.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Bill Gates predicts a chaotic 20-year transition before AI-driven abundance, with humanoid robots potentially arriving in two or three years or closer to eight. Gates says robots could eventually build homes, grow food and perform surgery, making human labor unnecessary if development continues without a major slowdown.

Robotics (1)

• A host says the robotics bottleneck is manufacturing capacity and safe deployment, not software, and estimates complex household or labor tasks could be about a year away. The host also cites Microsoft’s planned 60,000 job cuts and a Goldman Sachs finding linking workplace AI adoption with weaker employment growth and higher unemployment.

Labor (1)

• The hosts argue that AI could eliminate entry-level work that teaches young people workplace skills and socializes them, while knowledge work may be the last large employment sector machines can replace. They warn that concentrated ownership points toward digital feudalism, even if automation could eventually free people from unwanted jobs.

Safety (1)

• A cyberattack forced the University of New Mexico health system to divert ambulances, close clinics and stop patients from attending its Albuquerque hospital. The host says the breach’s connection to AI was unclear, but experts advise assuming hacks may be AI-enabled; the system runs the state’s only Level I trauma center.

History (1)

• The hosts warn that the Industrial Revolution brought decades of labor conflict, unsafe conditions and social upheaval before workers secured protections and breaks. They argue that AI may leave workers with less leverage than earlier generations because employers could no longer need human labor at all.

Elections (6)

• Charlotte Howard says Republican mid-cycle redistricting in Texas and Florida backfired, producing Democratic seats instead of protecting Republican control. Donald Trump had urged Republicans to redraw districts before the election to preserve the House.
• Charlotte Howard says Trump-backed Ken Paxton lacked broad appeal amid allegations of corruption and marital infidelity. Edward Carr says Vivek Ramaswamy’s attack ad against Amy Acton also backfired, reinforcing voter rejection of aggressive partisan tactics.
• Edward Carr argues that voters crossed party lines rather than backing candidates simply to defeat the other side. He sees the results as a rejection of tribal politics that rewards performance and hostility over governing.
• Charlotte Howard expects Democrats to push votes restoring Medicaid coverage and Obamacare exchange subsidies, and to seek an end to the unpopular Iran war. She says major legislation may stall and the Trump administration may ignore congressional subpoenas.
• Abdel El-Sayed won Michigan’s Senate race by a smaller margin than Democrats who prevailed in deep-red states, despite being a populist leftist and Muslim. Charlotte Howard says candidates such as James Talarico and John Ossoff won wider support with less partisan presentations.
• Charlotte Howard says Trump’s shifting positions have left Republicanism’s identity unclear. Edward Carr expects Stephen Miller to intensify his agenda, while Trump may pursue legacy projects or foreign-policy gestures that require more sustained effort than he typically gives.

Elections (4)

• Nate Cohn said South Carolina’s early vote showed Democrats winning beyond the states already considered competitive. Annie Andrews defeated Trump-backed Darlene Graham by nearly five points, turning a state Trump had carried by a wide margin.
• Nate Cohn cautioned that voters’ rejection of Trump did not prove they trusted the Democratic Party: polling showed mixed views of whether Democrats were too far left or right. He said Democrats had improved their standing on who could manage the economy and gained a digitally fluent generation of potential leaders.
• The analysts described Trump as a constraint on Republicans: he was the least popular political figure entering a midterm since 1946, while his party suffered its worst defeat in half a century. Nate Cohn said a majority of Republicans still wanted the party to follow Trump, although two-thirds of the country wanted a different direction.
• Shane Goldmacher said Vice President JD Vance faced a bind as a likely Republican presidential contender closely tied to an unpopular Trump. Lisa Lerer said Democrats now had to define their own agenda beyond opposing Trump, while Nate Cohn questioned whether either party would develop a new account of the country’s problems before 2028.

Israel (1)

• Trump said the United States would end most aid to Israel, about $4 billion, at the end of the year. He said Israel did not need the assistance and framed the move as removing a talking point from Democrats critical of aid; the announcement reportedly surprised some Israeli officials.

Elections (12)

• Voters described the election as a referendum on Trump, while others focused on fears about national identity, Sharia law, and rising prices, including a complaint that a bag of chips costs $4.
• Voters named sharply different Senate choices, including Abdul El-Sayed, Mary Peltola, Susan Collins, and Troy Jackson; some framed their votes as choosing the lesser of two evils or backing a candidate despite reservations.
• Nate Cohn said the Michigan poll put Abdul El-Sayed 11 points ahead, his largest lead of the cycle and a six-point gain since September, despite Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers. In Alaska, Mary Peltola’s lead had narrowed from seven points to one amid campaign controversies and a spoiler-candidate dispute.
• Nate Cohn’s first scenario had Democrats winning the House narrowly while Republicans held the Senate and most Trump-plus-10 districts. Republican-favoring redistricting raised the bar for Democrats, who would need to win in states such as Kansas or Iowa to flip the chamber.
• In that first scenario, early-counted ballots could make Democrats appear to lead Florida and South Carolina before Election Day votes arrived. Cohn warned that this blue mirage could reverse if Republican voters turned out on Election Day.
• Nate Cohn said the second scenario would bring a large Democratic House win but leave Republicans with the Senate after close contests in red states. Maine and Alaska could take days to resolve because of slow counting and ranked-choice voting.
• Cohn’s third scenario had Democrats winning the Senate by only a few seats, with close results in states such as Alaska and Ohio deciding the outcome. He put the possible Democratic majority at 51 to 54 seats.
• Nate Cohn said the polls made the fourth scenario, or something close to it, the likeliest outcome, even though he found a landslide hard to imagine in a polarized era. Republican spending in Texas and Trump’s repeated South Carolina visits showed both parties treated those states as competitive.
• Cohn said pollsters were weighting Trump supporters more heavily than in 2016 or 2020 and the Times checked state samples against registered-Republican counts. The Times also tried to distinguish different kinds of Trump supporters; its final polls were three points bluer than its 2022 and 2024 methodology.
• Cohn said early voting looked strongly Democratic, including in Texas, where two-thirds of ballots had already been cast. Times data showed young, Latino, and previously nonvoting Texans turning out in significant numbers, but he cautioned that Republicans could still counter on Election Day, as they did in 2020.
• Trump used his final full day of campaigning to rally Republicans at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and called Democratic candidates extreme and dangerous. Abdul El-Sayed presented the election as a referendum on Trump and mocked Trump’s repeated difficulty saying his name.
• The Times reported that early voting outpaced the previous midterm cycle in every major Senate battleground, with polls opening for in-person voting at 6:00 a.m. on Election Day.