The voters behind a map-changing election wave

Media (2)

• The hosts challenged Free Press reporter Olivia Rheingold’s designer-fashion post after she corrected the event attribution and said ChatGPT had sharpened her photo; they also criticized her famine reporting for relying on online searches, contacting no families, and claiming 12 cases when the hosts counted 10, or possibly 11.
• David Sirota said independent media can expose gaps between politicians’ promises and their actions, making post-election scrutiny essential. He described The Lever as built to pressure Democrats to deliver on economic-populist, anti-war, and anti-genocide promises rather than return to business as usual.

Elections (2)

• Chuck Schumer’s and Hakeem Jeffries’s leadership positions faced pressure after the election, with David Sirota questioning whether either could be trusted to deliver policy commitments. Sirota said a large freshman class could loosen Jeffries’s hold, while critics pointed to his opposition to Medicare for All and refusal to promise a vote.
• The hosts said Republicans remain broadly pro-Trump and pro-Israel but that criticism of Trump, including over the Iran war, has become more public. They discussed Thomas Massie as a possible future challenger and said Trump’s weakening control could reopen the Republican populist movement’s internal fight.

Iran (1)

• Chris Van Hollen and Ro Khanna proposed using the continuing resolution due December 11 to bar federal funding for the Iran war. A host cited the Vietnam-era funding restriction as precedent and argued that anti-war groups should demand an immediate end rather than defer action to later defense bills.

Health (1)

• Bernie Sanders said Democrats should pass Medicare for All and dare Donald Trump to veto it, arguing Trump may be less ideological than his party. The hosts also urged Democrats to restore Medicaid cuts and Affordable Care Act subsidies, making Trump responsible if he blocks popular healthcare measures.

Corruption (1)

• David Sirota argued that congressional investigations can expose lawbreaking, deter future abuses, and supply facts for legislation instead of leaving policy to corporate lobbyists. He backed broad scrutiny of Trump, corporate America, and the tech industry, rather than limiting investigations to Trump’s self-enrichment.

Banking (1)

• Lina Khan argued that congressional oversight can drive economic reform; David Sirota said investigations should establish facts before lawmakers write bills. The hosts cited Ferdinand Pecora’s 1930s investigation of financiers as a model that helped lay groundwork for the Glass-Steagall Act and the Securities Exchange Act.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Technology stocks and Bitcoin fell after the election as investors priced in Democratic oversight and local resistance to data centers; the hosts said AI firms were already trying to rebrand with promises on schools, jobs, labor, and environmental impacts. Jason Calacanis proposed taxing data centers to fund universal healthcare.

Models (1)

• The hosts argued that current AI products have not improved everyday life as clearly as earlier consumer technologies, while data centers have made the costs visible to communities. One host also warned that Anthropic may be accelerating toward recursive self-improvement despite Dario Amodei’s public call to slow frontier development.

History (1)

• The hosts compared Bernie Sanders’s influence on younger Democrats to Barry Goldwater’s effect on the Republican agenda, while noting that Sanders’s campaigns supplied a populist frame for later candidates. They linked millennial politics to the Iraq War, the financial crisis, Occupy, and disappointment with Barack Obama’s governing record.

Regulation (1)

• The hosts opposed impeachment as a media spectacle unless investigations produce evidence strong enough to win Senate conviction; they suggested the Iran war’s legality or insider trading could supply a case. They also said Angie Nixon plans to run for Senate in 2028 after narrowly missing a statewide win.

Corruption (3)

• Saul says Trump’s stock trading before tariff announcements, Pentagon-linked deals involving Trump’s children, and allegations against administration figures offer Democrats corruption investigations. He expects scrutiny of Kristi Noem and Kimberly Guilfoyle, while Jared Kushner’s Middle East investments raise questions about conflicts involving foreign policy.
• Saul expects Elon Musk’s DOGE work to draw congressional scrutiny over federal firings, furloughs, and disrupted agencies. He says DOGE did not save much money; he also warns Democrats to bring evidence before subpoenaing Musk because Musk can use X and his business record to fight back.
• Saul says Democrats could investigate suspiciously timed bets on Polymarket and Kalshi, including large wagers placed shortly before tariff changes or Iran-war announcements. He argues these platforms raise both consumer-protection concerns and the risk that people with political access profit from inside information.

Elections (4)

• Saagar argues Trump will keep dominating Republican politics after leaving office because he will continue seeking attention, defending his legacy, and influencing party leaders. The hosts say the party lacks a coherent platform beyond Trump’s shifting positions, with divisions over Israel, Iran, immigration, trade, and corporate ownership.
• Ro Khanna says the election rejected Trump’s Iran war, support for Israel, and corruption, and reflected voters’ desire for outsiders who challenge the establishment. Khanna argues Congress should cut off funding for combat operations in Iran through a continuing resolution, rather than wait until the new year.
• Khanna says he is seriously considering a presidential run and wants candidates to take clear positions against war, U.S. military support for Israel, and billionaire wealth. His stated platform includes recognizing a Palestinian state, opening embassies in East Jerusalem and Ramallah, stopping arms sales, and establishing Medicare for All.
• Khanna proposes an agenda of Medicare for All, free childcare, free college, a billionaire tax, and lower Pentagon spending, alongside investigations into pay-to-play and crypto corruption, the Epstein files, and the wars in the Caribbean and Iran. He says Democrats still need to build a clear agenda and deliver results rather than treat the election as a lasting mandate.

War (2)

• Khanna says ending the Iran war could lower gas, diesel, and food prices before Christmas, and argues Congress can refuse to appropriate money without defunding the military as a whole. He rejects delaying the fight until January, citing immediate household costs and the danger of further escalation.
• Khanna says he will press Hakeem Jeffries for commitments to oppose the Iran war, seek a vote on zeroing out Israel aid, and hold a Medicare for All vote or hearings before deciding how to support Jeffries for House speaker. Khanna dodges a direct question about withholding his vote if Jeffries refuses.

Elections (3)

• After the midterm defeat, Donald Trump spent nearly half an hour praising the White House ballroom’s beauty and security, including its bulletproof glass and drone- and missile-resistant construction. Krystal said the spectacle captured Trump’s focus on his project over voters’ financial strain.
• Donald Trump said he would work with Democrats after the election and did not want to spend two years vetoing everything. Saagar contrasted the conciliatory response with Trump’s defiant reaction to the 2018 midterms.
• Krystal said Vance cannot credibly present himself as separate from the administration after publicly defending its Iran war, ICE actions, and economic record. Saagar noted that Vance had privately pushed diplomacy, but argued that public defenses undermine that account ahead of 2028.

Immigration (1)

• Vance said he was open to focusing immigration enforcement on businesses that hire undocumented workers, while rejecting amnesty. Saagar treated the proposal as an acknowledgment that the administration could change its enforcement approach.

War (1)

• Vance’s criticism of the Iran war triggered an intra-Republican fight: pro-Israel commentators accused him of scapegoating Israel, while others argued the administration should have pressed the war further. Krystal said Republican fortunes improved when gas prices eased and a ceasefire understanding briefly raised hopes the conflict might end.

Corruption (4)

• Isaac Saul argued that corruption resonated because voters saw Trump’s wealth grow while their own costs remained high. Saul cited Trump’s stock trades before announcing tariffs, his children’s Pentagon-linked business deals, and reports that Trump’s net worth quadrupled in two years.
• Isaac Saul expected Democrats to call former officials Kristi Noem and Kimberly Guilfoyle to testify, citing reports of messages about destroying paper trails and a $100,000 payment tied to an IRS investigation. Saul also flagged Jared Kushner’s foreign investments and Pete Hegseth as likely oversight targets.
• Isaac Saul said DOGE’s disruption of federal agencies would be a central target for congressional scrutiny, with fired or furloughed staff still angry and little money saved. Krystal wanted Elon Musk subpoenaed as part of an anti-oligarch agenda; Saul urged Democrats to bring clear evidence before confronting Musk’s large platform and business interests.
• Isaac Saul urged Congress to investigate unusually timed, large bets on Polymarket and Kalshi before Trump administration announcements on tariffs and the Iran war. He said prediction-market activity could expose officials or insiders profiting from policy decisions, while also harming ordinary bettors.

Elections (4)

• Krystal called Florida and Louisiana missed opportunities after national Democrats declined to invest in close races. Saagar argued that even $20 million to $50 million could have made Florida more competitive, while Bernie Sanders campaigned for Angie Nixon.
• Saagar said Republican spending could strengthen a favorable wave but could not manufacture votes. The panel said Elon Musk’s spending failed to protect Republicans in Texas, and that Musk himself became a campaign liability.
• Krystal said Zohran Mamdani’s affordability message gave Democrats a common economic frame: money in people’s pockets and opposition to billionaires. She said Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger adopted it, while Republican culture-war advertising, especially trans-focused ads, failed to move voters.
• Ryan urged Democrats to use their new leverage to negotiate concrete changes, including ending the Iran war and mandatory detention, restoring court hearings, and stopping deportations to Africa. Saagar pointed to Lyndon Johnson’s Senate strategy with Eisenhower as a model for extracting popular concessions rather than opposing everything.

Inflation (1)

• Saagar and Emily argued that inflation, the Iran war, tariffs, and perceived corruption combined into a broader political crisis. The panel cited exit-poll findings that cost of living and corruption were central to voters, alongside mortgage rates, gas prices, and costly housing.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Krystal argued that data-center opposition, concentrated tech wealth, labor displacement, and security failures could sustain a political coalition after Trump leaves office. She cited hacked systems, outages, and hospital disruptions as emerging risks, and warned that AI could be built to replace human labor.

Elections (13)

• The New York Times changed its likely-voter screen after past Republican underestimates, and Ryan says its new estimates rely more on judgment than evidence about an Election Day Republican surge.
• Emily argued that pollsters may be undercounting voters who backed Obama and Trump over affordability and opposition to new wars, then could switch parties because those same issues now hurt Republicans.
• Ryan compared Trump’s vulnerability with Harry Truman’s 1946 midterm, when anger at the president helped Republicans break up the New Deal coalition; he said today’s stronger partisan loyalty makes the comparison imperfect.
• The panel warned against treating Kalshi and Polymarket election odds as reliable: research from Campaign for Accountability and Stop Gambling found the markets had not been very predictive during the 2026 primary cycle.
• Ryan said a Democratic Senate majority could face immediate pressure to stop funding the Iran war when government funding comes up in December; he said renewed combat operations could intensify calls for impeachment.
• Emily raised two unanswered questions in a Democratic Senate scenario: whether John Fetterman would caucus with Democrats if the chamber were tied, and where voters and lawmakers would stand on Chuck Schumer.
• Haley Stevens reversed course after Michigan’s Senate primary, endorsing Republican Mike Rogers and saying Abdul El-Sayed had made her unwelcome in his campaign. Her CNN interview failed to explain why she had supported El-Sayed shortly beforehand.
• Ryan said former Stevens staff described her fiancé, Jason, as a source of political advice that repeatedly failed in practice; he also cited reports of controlling behavior, which panelists treated as allegations rather than established facts.
• Ryan argued donor pressure helped drive Stevens’s reversal: he said major Democratic fundraisers preferred Republican control to a Democratic majority empowered by Democratic Socialists of America candidates, citing James Carville’s public remark.
• Emily said Stevens’s endorsement pulled attention from Rogers’s economic message and toward foreign policy and personal drama; Ryan added that it undercut attacks portraying El-Sayed as linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.
• Panelists criticized Stevens for invoking Israel and Black communities while endorsing Rogers, and said the appearance of people described as foreign agents at her event sharpened the controversy around his campaign.
• Krystal said recent Michigan polls showed El-Sayed winning 95 percent of Black voters and more Democrats unified behind him than Republicans behind Rogers; she said national coverage overstated Black dissatisfaction with El-Sayed.
• Panelists described Florida’s Senate and House contests as hard to assess because polling was sparse; they highlighted David Jolly, Angie Nixon, and Maria Elvira Salazar’s district as races to watch.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Krystal argued that AI could eventually unite voters across party lines against data centers, job losses, and tech-company power; Saagar said a Fox News poll placed AI above immigration as a voter priority.

AI Infrastructure (5)

• Jason says Texas, Georgia, and Ohio together represent more than 40% of planned U.S. data center capacity. Bloomberg reported Microsoft was souring on neocloud providers, while Nscale lost a deal tied to a U.K. data center.
• Jason gives Donald Trump high marks for backing AI infrastructure, energy expansion, and growth, but says Trump made data centers a partisan wedge issue. Jason argues split government provides useful checks and balances after Republicans lost both chambers.
• Jason argues data centers can win local support by paying taxes, creating jobs, funding community benefits, and protecting water and electricity prices. He warns that slowing construction could trigger a recession lasting two to four years, and says operators must control noise, pollution, odors, and energy impacts.
• Jason says the Republican split over AI centers on job losses, wealth concentration, and fears that technology firms will leave workers in a permanent underclass. He connects those concerns to opposition from Steve Bannon, Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, and Megyn Kelly.
• OpenAI pledged to cover the full cost of powering its data centers, solicit local input, publish construction plans, and avoid nondisclosure agreements with public officials. Jason says repeated, direct communication about utility bills, water use, taxes, and community impact is essential to building trust.

Markets (1)

• Jason says markets corrected 5% to 6% after the election, but sees the selloff as overblown if tariffs ease and the Iran war ends. He calls the decline a buying opportunity in companies including Nvidia, Amazon, Uber, Tesla, and SpaceX.

Regulation (2)

• Jason criticized Trump family meme coins soon after Trump took office, arguing that leaders responsible for fixing crypto regulation should not launch speculative tokens while doing so. He says government officials should keep personal trading at arm’s length from their public duties.
• Jason says taxing loans backed by appreciated assets could address wealthy people borrowing against holdings instead of selling them. He described taxing margin loans above a threshold, while noting the gap between ordinary income and long-term capital-gains rates.

Trade (1)

• Jason says Trump’s tariff goals were defensible but the rollout was chaotic, with public threats replacing a planned negotiating strategy. He argues leaders should hear directly from affected businesses; a clothing-company CEO described how tariffs were affecting his operations.

Models (2)

• Anthropic signed its first content licensing deal with the Associated Press for election coverage, with Claude expected to provide attributed, up-to-date polling information. Jason distinguishes licensing from unsettled questions about training on purchased content and using copyrighted material in AI outputs.
• Jason argues AI companies should share revenue with publishers and other rights holders rather than leave licensing disputes unresolved. He floated giving media businesses a portion of AI revenue, potentially through platform-wide arrangements that let publishers opt out.

Big Tech (3)

• Apple reportedly cut daily AI budgets for engineers and may impose lower limits on other teams. Jason says high-value AI tools will likely move from flat-rate subscriptions toward usage-based corporate pricing, with companies reviewing who actually uses the tools.
• Jason thinks Apple could let customers choose between cloud models and local models, using its own devices as an AI platform. The hosts also discussed an expensive touch-screen Mac configuration, with Jason questioning the value of touching a laptop display when an iPad can handle that use.
• The hosts debated whether technology executives would return to progressive messaging after Democratic victories. Jason says Democrats should invite business leaders into policy discussions, while warning that executives who shifted toward Trump may face distrust if they reverse course.

Agents (1)

• A host described using a Plaud pin and agent to route voice notes across Gmail, Calendar, Slack, Notion, Claude, and Grokbot, then build a product demo. Jason requested keyword-triggered actions and offline recording that syncs after a ski run, ideally through cellular connectivity.

Psychology (1)

• Jason says only a small share of casino gamblers tip, and he prefers putting dealers into a hand so they can share the outcome. He described a home poker game that sometimes includes the server in a bomb pot, giving the worker a chance at a large payout.

Society (1)

• The hosts traded Austin food opinions: one criticized Whataburger, while Jason said he would reconsider his view of P. Terry’s and praised Velvet Taco’s brisket and tikka masala tacos. The conversation framed these local chains as familiar parts of Austin life.

Media (2)

• Jason recommended Godzilla Minus One, praising its emotional connection to the creature and its postwar Japanese setting. The hosts discussed the follow-up, Godzilla Minus Zero, which moves the story into the 1950s and was playing in theaters that week.
• The co-host recommended the Korean monster film Hope, describing its long runtime, violent action, shifting story, and major twists. The same co-host praised season two of Apple TV+’s Dark Matter for treating travel between realities as a psychological problem rather than a superhero spectacle.

Elections (4)

• Chuck Schumer said his police guard may have saved his life during the January 6 attack, after rioters came within 30 feet and one called him an antisemitic slur. Schumer said congressional leaders returned to the Capitol and finished certifying Joe Biden’s victory at 3 a.m.
• Schumer said he expected no challenge to his Senate leadership and described his role as coordinating the caucus while giving newer members room to lead. At 75, nearly 76, and after 27 years in Congress and the Senate, he declined to say whether he would seek another Senate term.
• Schumer declined to commit on abolishing the legislative filibuster, saying he would judge it by whether it helps Democrats deliver on costs, chaos, and corruption. He said his near-term measures of success were concrete accomplishments and a unified caucus, but left specific benchmarks to emerge over the coming months.
• Schumer said Democrats would rather pass legislation now, but argued that if Trump and Republicans block popular proposals, voters could reward Democrats in 2028. He predicted Democrats could win the presidency and control of Congress then, while warning that the party would lose its opening if it failed to deliver.

Corruption (1)

• Schumer called Trump exceptionally corrupt and said Democrats should investigate the administration, including a government settlement tied to Trump’s defamation suit. Schumer alleged Trump sued for $10 billion as a private citizen and received a $2 billion settlement as president; he also said Pete Hegseth should be removed, while leaving any Trump impeachment decision to the House.

Markets (3)

• Schumer put lowering costs ahead of investigations and named healthcare, electricity, groceries, tariffs, childcare, and housing as the party’s main targets. He also wants to curb political spending in response to Citizens United, arguing that reducing money’s influence can help make policy more responsive to household costs.
• Schumer said Democrats would propose making housing easier to build and finding ways to construct cheaper homes more quickly. He did not give details of the proposals during the interview.
• The Daily reported that U.S. stocks had their worst day in nearly two years as investors reacted to Democratic congressional gains and the prospect of new AI regulations. Investors also balked at rising debt among large technology companies, and the selloff erased trillions of dollars in value from Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon.

Health (1)

• Schumer said Democrats would seek to restore Affordable Care Act subsidies and expected some Republicans to reconsider after the healthcare shutdown hurt their states and election prospects. He said 15 to 20 Republicans reliably follow Trump, while a smaller group has resisted him, and argued the month-long shutdown showed voters which party was fighting for healthcare.

Trade (1)

• Schumer said Democrats would try to repeal Trump’s tariffs and expected Republican support, though Trump could veto the legislation. He tied tariffs to household costs and cited their effects on autos in Michigan and soybeans in Kansas.

Iran (1)

• Schumer said Congress could use its power over federal spending to stop the war in Iran, arguing that the Constitution’s spending authority was designed to check presidents who pursue unpopular wars. He said Democrats had gained three Republican votes, then four, and expected more support.

Elections (1)

• Nate Cohn said campaign money can still shape politicians’ positions and votes, even when it has little effect on election results. He argued that highly engaged midterm voters were focused on the president and wanted to check the party in power, limiting the impact of attack ads.

Iran (1)

• J.D. Vance publicly blamed Republican election losses on the war with Iran, writing that “the reason we lost is the war.” The episode described Vance’s break with Donald Trump over the conflict as an apparent early effort to distance himself from a potential liability in a 2028 presidential campaign.

Elections (2)

• Nate Cohn cautioned that voters’ rejection of Trump did not prove they trusted the Democratic Party: polling showed mixed views of whether Democrats were too far left or right. He said Democrats had improved their standing on who could manage the economy and gained a digitally fluent generation of potential leaders.
• Shane Goldmacher said Vice President JD Vance faced a bind as a likely Republican presidential contender closely tied to an unpopular Trump. Lisa Lerer said Democrats now had to define their own agenda beyond opposing Trump, while Nate Cohn questioned whether either party would develop a new account of the country’s problems before 2028.

Israel (1)

• Trump said the United States would end most aid to Israel, about $4 billion, at the end of the year. He said Israel did not need the assistance and framed the move as removing a talking point from Democrats critical of aid; the announcement reportedly surprised some Israeli officials.

Elections (6)

• Voters named sharply different Senate choices, including Abdul El-Sayed, Mary Peltola, Susan Collins, and Troy Jackson; some framed their votes as choosing the lesser of two evils or backing a candidate despite reservations.
• Nate Cohn said the Michigan poll put Abdul El-Sayed 11 points ahead, his largest lead of the cycle and a six-point gain since September, despite Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers. In Alaska, Mary Peltola’s lead had narrowed from seven points to one amid campaign controversies and a spoiler-candidate dispute.
• In that first scenario, early-counted ballots could make Democrats appear to lead Florida and South Carolina before Election Day votes arrived. Cohn warned that this blue mirage could reverse if Republican voters turned out on Election Day.
• Cohn said pollsters were weighting Trump supporters more heavily than in 2016 or 2020 and the Times checked state samples against registered-Republican counts. The Times also tried to distinguish different kinds of Trump supporters; its final polls were three points bluer than its 2022 and 2024 methodology.
• Trump used his final full day of campaigning to rally Republicans at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and called Democratic candidates extreme and dangerous. Abdul El-Sayed presented the election as a referendum on Trump and mocked Trump’s repeated difficulty saying his name.
• The Times reported that early voting outpaced the previous midterm cycle in every major Senate battleground, with polls opening for in-person voting at 6:00 a.m. on Election Day.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Carlson argues data centers became a winning Democratic issue because voters saw them as ugly, resource-intensive projects that could serve surveillance more than local communities; he says Greg Abbott backed them while his opponent campaigned against them.

Media (2)

• Carlson accuses Fox News of helping sell the Iran war directly to Trump through programming he watched, and says nearly the entire lineup supported it. He also says Fox’s survey showed Iran mattered to only a small share of voters.
• Carlson says political and media narratives rewrite events as they unfold, making later policy decisions less informed. He compares honest historical accounting to aviation crash investigations and argues that obscuring the reasons for past Middle East wars enabled repeated interventions.

War (1)

• Carlson warns that Russia and Iran may exploit Trump’s domestic weakness while he retains executive authority, citing threats against the United States and its allies, including Ukraine, Europe, and the Gulf states.

Society (1)

• Carlson argues that government should apply equal standards to individuals regardless of race or religion, and says both anti-Semitism and anti-white or anti-Muslim discrimination deserve opposition. He claims discrimination against white people remains embedded in university, hiring, and contracting policy.

Corruption (1)

• Carlson calls the Epstein files a test of equal accountability, arguing that officials from either party must support their release. He questions Jared Kushner’s Middle East and Ukraine work alongside private fundraising, and says powerful figures may escape scrutiny while junior staff take the blame.

Psychology (2)

• Carlson argues that Republican candidates weakened their appeal to men by projecting vanity, indecision, and performative toughness instead of restraint and decisiveness. He contrasts the party’s campaign imagery with candidates he portrays as more grounded and masculine.
• Carlson says political drama and social-media framing can make people judge their lives by national events instead of relationships and daily circumstances. He argues that a slower political pace would give people room to think after years of crisis-driven attention.

Elections (7)

• Democrats’ wins included the first openly gay male senator, the first Muslim senator, the first Black female governor, a senator with spina bifida and a Native American first. Ezra Klein says candidates’ records of appealing to the voters they need matter more than identity-based assumptions.
• Maine’s 2nd District illustrates the cost of driving out a useful coalition member, Ezra Klein argues: Jared Golden, the most conservative House Democrat, retired after pressure from the left, and Matt Dunlap’s race for the seat remained close even in a large Democratic wave.
• Aaron Redica questions how much damage it took to turn voters against Trump; Ezra Klein answers that voters punish governments when life gets worse, regardless of a politician’s style. The transcript also notes that Trump benefited from a strong economy during much of his first term.
• Ezra Klein says midterm waves have no fixed sequel: Democrats’ 2006 gains preceded Barack Obama’s 2008 win and a 60-seat Senate majority, but Republicans’ 1994 and 2010 waves were followed by Bill Clinton’s 1996 and Obama’s 2012 victories. Democrats also won after the 2018 midterms.
• Ezra Klein says Democrats should balance investigations of Trump with practical legislation and agenda-building. Possible priorities include permitting reform, AI rules, immigration policy, healthcare, Medicare-for-more proposals and childcare; the party also needs to define a governing program for 2028.
• Elon Musk’s political spending failed to protect Republicans in Texas and may have backfired, Ezra Klein says; Musk spent $500 million, much of it in Texas. Democrats also campaigned against data centers, and nearly all proposed local moratoriums had passed as the episode was recorded.
• Ezra Klein argues that Trumpism never formed a coherent ideology because Trump prioritizes personal control and loyalty over policy consistency. He says factions will blame one another after the losses, while J.D. Vance may present himself as a version of Trumpism without the war despite weak electoral results and low popularity.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Ezra Klein sees major risks ahead: an AI capital-spending boom could collapse, the Iran war could widen, and conflicts involving Israel, Russia and Ukraine, or China and Taiwan could escalate. He also flags Trump’s health and the possibility of AI systems hacking into China.

Corruption (1)

• Ezra Klein says congressional investigations should focus on a few legible threads, especially money flowing to Trump, his family and associates. He names the Qatari jet, Jared Kushner’s fund, crypto, contracts and the Trump family’s profits, alongside the dismantling of agencies including USAID and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Religion (1)

• Ezra Klein and Aaron Redica see an opening for a religious left that speaks explicitly about virtue and neighborly obligation. They praise James Talarico, Adam Hamilton, Abdul El-Sayed and John Ossoff, while criticizing cruelty in the campaigns of Ken Paxton and Vivek Ramaswamy and Roger Marshall’s treatment of patients.

Elections (9)

• A Pew poll found AI ranked below the economy, democracy, and several other issues in voter importance. Opposition to local data centers was much broader than concern about AI as an abstract issue.
• Pew found opposition to pro-data-center candidates across party lines, with stronger resistance among Democrats. Nathaniel Whittemore says the campaign issue was chiefly the local costs and control associated with data centers.
• NBC exit polling found data centers mattered to voters, but ranked below immigration, Iran, cost of living, and corruption. Democrats were twice as likely as Republicans to cite data centers as a major voting factor.
• Sherrod Brown and Abdul El-Sayed linked data centers to household costs, concentrated tech wealth, surveillance, and political power. Trump’s public defense of data centers left Republicans in tight races little room to break with him.
• Scott Wiener’s California House race put AI regulation in the spotlight; Wiener had sponsored SB 1047, whose provisions included developer liability and a mandatory kill switch. The bill influenced later California laws that became models for other states.
• Ohio’s data-center plans gave Sherrod Brown a concrete campaign target: he attacked Jon Husted’s support for development and won back his Senate seat. Brown returned with 18 years of Senate experience and a sharper grievance against the tech industry after its spending against him.
• Texas’s governor’s race created a major uncertainty for data-center developers: Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott after Abbott paused new permits pending an energy and environmental review. Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium, ending tax subsidies, and protecting local electricity and water access.
• Jon Ossoff made data centers a symbol of tech oligarchy, corruption, and rising household costs, and won a second Senate term. Whittemore says Ossoff had done little beyond headline-friendly investigations, but his campaign could push him toward a larger AI policy role.
• Abdul El-Sayed campaigned against AI through concerns about job loss, economic disruption, surveillance, AI-powered warfare, and loss of control. He also raised the possibility that AI could be used to create a biological weapon.

Regulation (2)

• Nathaniel Whittemore expects Congress to avoid a sweeping federal AI framework or nationwide data-center moratorium, especially with Trump promising to veto Democratic legislation. He expects hearings and state-level restrictions to matter more immediately.
• Whittemore sees bipartisan openings for whistleblower protections, required incident reporting, stronger model-builder liability, and legal requirements for frontier-model testing. He also expects debate over data sovereignty, export controls, pausing development, and limits on recursive self-improvement.

Models (1)

• Whittemore argues that pressure for AI rules will rise as models gain capabilities, including capabilities for harmful uses. He sees broadly accepted baseline protections as a foundation for later, more contested rules.

AI Infrastructure (2)

• Data-center developers now have to earn local consent by limiting nondisclosure agreements, covering their own infrastructure and electricity costs, and offering community benefits. Whittemore expects some new leaders to pair enforceable local protections with a workable path for projects.
• Whittemore’s downside scenario is that expanding moratoriums and state actions cut off Wall Street funding, stall AI construction, bankrupt neoclouds, and trigger a wider downturn. A burst AI investment bubble could then shape the 2028 campaign alongside jobs, cybersecurity, and existential-risk concerns.

Elections (3)

• Charlotte Howard says voters made the economy, cost of living and political self-dealing central campaign issues, while demanding results from Congress despite low confidence in the institution.
• Charlotte Howard expects Democrats to push votes restoring Medicaid coverage and Obamacare exchange subsidies, and to seek an end to the unpopular Iran war. She says major legislation may stall and the Trump administration may ignore congressional subpoenas.
• Charlotte Howard says Trump’s shifting positions have left Republicanism’s identity unclear. Edward Carr expects Stephen Miller to intensify his agenda, while Trump may pursue legacy projects or foreign-policy gestures that require more sustained effort than he typically gives.

Elections (3)

• Tina Barden corrected a vote-tally submission error in Rochester Hills within 24 hours, but Ronna McDaniel falsely claimed 2,000 ballots meant for Donald Trump went to Joe Biden; Barden later received death threats.
• Ready for Tuesday trains election officials with tabletop exercises for disruptions such as fires, ballot seizures, and federal agents at polling places; Pinal County staff said Justice Department monitors without a letter must leave.
• Gabrielle Cazares-Kelly said ICE appearing at polling places was unlikely and arguably illegal, but Pima County lawyers prepared draft restraining orders; presidents have no authority over elections, which belong to states and Congress.

Markets (4)

• Vingero Makandawiri said higher interest rates since 2022 have weakened the case for buying homes, while high prices keep young people out; in Ireland, 60% of people aged 18 to 34 still live with parents.
• Vingero Makandawiri said stocks supplied most of last year’s increase in global household wealth: $40 trillion was added, with 57% coming from stocks and 15% from property; U.S. home-price growth is expected to slow.
• Vingero Makandawiri said stocks’ value relative to companies’ physical assets is far above dot-com-era peaks; Goldman Sachs reported that U.S. stocks surpassed real estate as a share of household wealth for the first time since World War II.
• Young people are investing more in stocks as property looks less like a reliable path to wealth: JPMorgan found that the share of 25-year-olds putting money into investment accounts increased sixfold between 2015 and 2024.

Macro (2)

• Landlord and home-flipping activity is retreating as governments remove property incentives: Canada barred foreign buyers in 2023, Britain strengthened renter protections, British landlords are selling at record rates, and U.S. flipping profits have shrunk.
• Vingero Makandawiri argued that reducing property speculation can lower the risk of another housing-driven financial crisis, though stock markets can crash faster; younger adults increasingly doubt homeownership guarantees security.

History (2)

• Harry Houdini’s centenary drew exhibitions, recreated performances, a Budapest lock-picking contest, and an AI-narrated docuseries; his widow Bess rejected claims of contact from beyond the grave after waiting for their secret code.
• Eric Collery said Houdini treated magic as scholarship: he studied the history of tricks, trained for dangerous escapes, and used research to refine his craft and create performances such as being buried alive or making an elephant disappear.

Media (1)

• Houdini turned stunts into publicity, using newspaper headlines, radio, and films to sell his shows; he also tried to trademark tricks and challenged imitators who copied his name or performances.