Price:

Hackers turn to homemade tokens to move Binance loot

Nov 11, 2026Summary from 6 podcasts.
  • Elliptic says hackers laundered some Binance loot through six homemade NEAR tokens.
  • The route was small beside the $6.34 billion theft, but shows laundering tactics keep changing.
  • Billions were frozen as exchange security rules came under renewed scrutiny.

North Korean hackers used six self-created NEAR meme coins to move some of the money stolen from Binance, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. The coins routed 117,000 NEAR, worth about $430,000, through liquidity pools that obscured direct transfers between wallets and bought the hackers time. The funds still left a public on-chain trail.

The NEAR route was small beside the $6.34 billion theft. But it adds a new method to a sprawling laundering operation: Elliptic’s latest figures cover more than 20,000 wallets across 16 blockchains, at least 36 services and more than 65,000 transactions. The firm also reported that 3,000 Bitcoin, worth about $225 million, had been converted from other stolen assets.

The FBI attributed the October 29 theft to North Korea. Reports described attackers compromising employee machines and reaching Binance’s internal signing systems; they also used Ethereum’s EIP-7702 feature to authorize transfers outside normal withdrawal controls. The reported breach was in Binance’s systems, not a failure of Bitcoin itself, as BTC Sessions’ host emphasized.

Some stolen funds have been stopped, but not through one central authority. Bankless reported that about $2.85 billion had been frozen, with stablecoin issuers and blockchain validators among those blocking assets. Earlier reporting by Bitcoin & Economic News tracked stolen XRP moving through THORChain into Bitcoin, which has no central issuer able to freeze coins.

That leaves service providers and validators facing a difficult choice: block suspicious transfers and help victims, or risk giving intermediaries power over transactions. Bankless described Polygon validators freezing stolen tokens while hackers tried to persuade them to release the funds. The FBI also urged THORChain node operators and other services not to process related transactions.

The breach is also sharpening calls for stronger exchange rules. Mailee Ma, on Bitcoin & Economic News, said the CLARITY Act draft lacks hot-wallet limits, insurance, loss-payee protections and security standards that could have reduced the damage. Binance said it would cover the loss using its balance sheet and insurance fund; the wider debate now is whether exchanges should be required to build in more protection before the next breach.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

AI and Used Jet Engines | Bitcoin News • Nov 10

  • Elliptic says North Korean launderers moved stolen Binance funds through six self-created NEAR meme coins, using liquidity pools to obscure direct wallet-to-wallet transfers and buy time. The tokens leave public on-chain trails; the wider theft response spans thousands of wallets and multiple blockchains.
Also discussed on this episode: (8)

Regulation (2)

  • Elizabeth Warren plans to use her expected Senate Banking Committee chairmanship to investigate prediction-market insider trading and manipulation, including election bets; she and John Curtis sought answers from Kalshi and Polymarket. David Bennett supports the crackdown, calling prediction markets gambling and arguing Warren’s focus could divert attention from Bitcoin.
  • Coinbase, Kalshi, Kraken, DRW Holdings, Jump Trading, and Paradigm filed a letter supporting the CFTC in a Southern District of New York case over its authority to regulate perpetual futures tied to individual stocks. The lawsuit was brought by the Capital Markets Alliance.

Labor (1)

  • Kayleen Fulton alleges the Ethereum Foundation fired her after she disclosed cancer and helped organize a staff letter opposing a job requirement tied to the new mandate; her complaint also alleges Vitalik Buterin helped enforce it. The mandate included a pledge to take one’s life with a sword, which the foundation’s lawyer called figurative.

Startups (1)

  • Anthropic set an IPO range of $70 to $78 a share, with trading targeted for November 19 and roughly 20% of shares allocated to retail buyers. David Bennett advises waiting after listing, arguing IPO spikes can leave retail investors holding losses as institutions sell.

Chips (1)

  • Google introduced two eighth-generation TPU systems for confidential computing and memory-heavy AI, and says its software can cut some data-transfer delays and startup times by more than 90%. David Bennett sees the launch as a threat to Nvidia, while Google’s performance comparisons are against its own earlier hardware, not Nvidia’s latest chips.

Inflation (1)

  • October CPI rose faster than forecast, and David Bennett argues higher rates may slow further inflation without reversing consumers’ existing price increases. Bitcoin traded at $72,890; the episode’s market roundup also put oil, metals, equities, network fees, and hash rate under pressure or below recent levels.

Nostr (1)

  • Zap Cooking combines Nostr recipe publishing with an iPhone app that searches recipes, scales ingredient quantities, and guides users through one cooking step at a time. David Bennett says its polished, practical design could bring people to Nostr; four new recipes had appeared since the previous day.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • AI data-center developers are buying refurbished turbines and retired jet engines because new U.S. gas turbines take years to arrive. David Bennett argues on-site generation could ease grid pressure, though electricity delivery and aging grid infrastructure remain constraints.

Un-Clarity | Bitcoin News • Nov 6

  • Crypto policy negotiators face pressure to add stronger exchange-security and consumer-protection rules after the Binance theft. Mailee Ma says the CLARITY Act draft lacks insurance, loss-payee protections, hot-wallet limits, and security standards that could have reduced the damage.
  • Elliptic tracked stolen XRP being routed through THORChain into Bitcoin after the Binance theft. More than 20,000 wallets across 16 blockchains and 65,000 transactions formed part of the laundering trail; roughly $3.1 billion remained in linked addresses.
Also discussed on this episode: (13)

Regulation (4)

  • Democrats won both chambers in the 2026 midterms, putting the stalled CLARITY Act back into negotiation. Shri Thanedar supports a path forward with stronger ethics rules, while Democrats are considering broader consumer protections and a larger SEC role.
  • David Bennett expects crypto firms including Coinbase to accept stricter U.S. rules rather than risk years in regulatory limbo or losing business to compliant competitors. Bennett says the CLARITY Act must address Donald Trump’s crypto ventures as conflicts of interest.
  • Greece approved a 10% tax on net crypto capital gains, effective in 2027, with gains up to €500 exempt and losses carried forward for five years. Crypto-to-crypto swaps remain untaxed; purchases will also face source-of-funds checks.
  • A Department of Labor final rule that could ease crypto and other alternative assets into 401(k) menus reached White House review. The proposal gives fiduciaries a process-based safe harbor, reducing litigation risk without requiring plans to offer crypto.

Labor (1)

  • The October U.S. jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs, far above the 65,000 estimate, while September’s reported gain was revised from 29,000 to 60,000. David Bennett called the figures unreliable; traders increased bets on a December Fed rate hike.

Markets (1)

  • Markets rallied after the jobs report: the Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.894%. Bitcoin traded near $75,870, while oil, gold, silver, and other commodities were mixed.

Elections (2)

  • David Bennett criticized AIPAC’s access to U.S. lawmakers and argued that foreign lobbying should not shape congressional decisions. Jason High speculated that Israel could be blackmailing or threatening Donald Trump over Iran; Bennett said he could not judge that claim.
  • A listener argued that presidents should face a maximum age of 65 at inauguration, contrasting that proposed cap with the existing minimum age. David Bennett praised the comment but did not offer a policy position on the age limit.

BTC Markets (1)

  • David Bennett said hackers converting stolen altcoins into Bitcoin could create selling pressure on those tokens and buying pressure on Bitcoin. He viewed that market effect as interesting while acknowledging that the theft itself is unethical.

Protocol (1)

  • Bitcoin developer Cory Fields proposed quantum “landmines” that require a thief to lock matching Bitcoin collateral before spending vulnerable coins. Owners could reveal proof during a delay to reclaim their coins and seize the collateral, but moving one’s own funds could also require matching collateral.

Psychology (1)

  • David Bennett doubts quantum landmines would gain adoption because they add complex steps and collateral requirements. He used the proposal to question whether increasingly layered digital security can keep pace with quantum threats, while noting that physical money creates its own costly barriers.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • OpenAI promised that communities near campuses it owns and operates would not pay for its electricity needs, with public energy and water reporting and independent noise studies. The compact specifies no penalties, enforcement process, or independent verification, and does not clearly cover partner-owned facilities.

Custody (1)

  • South Korean exchange GOPAX suspended trading and withdrawals after receiving a hacking-threat email, saying it would move customer assets into cold wallets. David Bennett questioned the explanation, arguing that a warning could be a pretext for the exchange to restrict access to funds.

The Hits Keep Coming | THE BITCOIN BRIEF 96 • Nov 9

  • Max reports that Binance’s hot wallets lost assets across several chains, including 18,270 BTC, in the largest exchange hack discussed. Binance said the losses were covered by its SAFU fund and company funds; the FBI attributed the attack to North Korea.
  • Max says the Binance attackers used compromised employee machines and internal signing systems rather than stealing private keys directly. Earlier intrusions involved a tampered Homebrew package and malware in a fake recruiter’s coding task, then spread through an internal AI tool.
Also discussed on this episode: (22)

Privacy (7)

  • Q and A says attackers exploited two linked flaws in Foundation’s self-hosted Cal.com and credential-management software, then sent more than 23,000 branded phishing emails to 21,500 addresses on October 25.
  • The breach exposed names, email addresses, order details, and archived support conversations; some records also contained postal addresses, phone numbers, and partial card details. Foundation says Passport and Envoy devices, software, and customer funds were unaffected.
  • Q and A says old WooCommerce records remained in database copies despite appearing redacted in the admin panel, while Shopify data had not yet been redacted. Foundation accepted responsibility for retaining data it believed was gone.
  • Max argues that customers should share as little personal information as possible, even while expecting companies to protect data they collect. He recommends using a P.O. box or buying in person when practical, rather than giving vendors a home address.
  • Q and A recommends Have I Been Pwned to check whether an email appears in known breaches, while noting it only checks email addresses. For changing contact details, he suggests listing accounts, using carrier forwarding where available, and updating services directly.
  • Max says Chainalysis disclosed that an outside attacker accessed user IDs, names, email addresses, and organization roles, then later found that usernames, password hashes, and live tokens were exposed. Its screening products went offline temporarily; the company said investigation content was not accessed.
  • Max says Bull Bitcoin made Payjoin the default for on-chain buys and sells through its wallet exchange. Payjoin breaks the assumption that every transaction input belongs to one sender, though the exchange still knows the transaction and a first purchase into an empty wallet cannot use it.

Safety (3)

  • Q and A says companies must test their systems as attackers would and check how connected software can be exploited together. Foundation is reviewing old software and considering less self-hosting, since running more code itself also increased maintenance and attack exposure.
  • Max says a 23-year-old crypto holder in France, targeted for a second time since 2022, was sentenced after firing at attempted kidnappers who were fleeing his father’s home. Max condemns the sentence and warns that public displays of wealth can expose holders to physical attacks.
  • Max reports that Russian police arrested five men accused of holding a programmer in a garage for five hours and forcing him to send 10.4 BTC. The attackers allegedly chose him after seeing luxury cars in his social-media photos.

Custody (4)

  • Max and Q and A favor separating Bitcoin activity from experimental AI use. Max suggests keeping Sparrow and a Bitcoin node off an AI-running computer; Q and A prefers a dedicated Bitcoin device and isolating AI access to other personal data.
  • Q and A says meeting Bitcoin builders at BTC Amsterdam eased his pessimism; he gave a talk on human-authority hardware. Max argues continued work matters because Bitcoin tools can help people resist growing financial control and leave more freedom to their children.
  • Max says Cake Wallet 6.5.3 adds Bluetooth support for the BitBox02 Nova on iPhone and iPad, including a pairing-code check, and adds BTC Map support.
  • Max says Liana 16 makes Taproot the installer’s recommended default, changes encrypted descriptor backups to BIP-138 format, and adds a privacy mode. The upgrade migrates the wallet database irreversibly, so users must back up the descriptor before updating.

Lightning (3)

  • Max reports that the LNbits team told operators to shut down after attacks on its paywall extension, then took hosted my.lnbits.com offline. BitTipBot reported 2.2 million sats withdrawn; LNbits said patches would follow, but no official release was available.
  • Max says Electrum 4.8.4 drops incoming onion messages to prevent malformed messages from disconnecting Lightning peers, rejects channel announcements with identical node IDs, and fixes restoration of older seeds. He urges users to install the security release.
  • Max says Core Lightning 26.06.10 fixes reported vulnerabilities involving dual funding, splicing, and peer signature checks. He urges node operators to update and avoid keeping more funds hot than necessary.

Payments (1)

  • Max says attackers exploited an older BTCPay Server vulnerability to drain hot wallets; servers on version 2.4.2 or later were unaffected, as were wallets whose keys stayed off-server. He advises taking outdated servers offline and keeping only necessary funds hot.

Regulation (1)

  • Max says FinCEN and the Federal Reserve withdrew a proposal to lower the cross-border travel-rule recordkeeping threshold and explicitly include crypto. The existing $3,000 threshold remains; Coin Center also noted earlier hosted-wallet and mixing proposals had been dropped.

Banking (1)

  • Max says ZachXBT flagged about $133 million stolen from French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa; the bank later said attackers compromised a service provider, wired money through bank accounts, then converted it to crypto. Max speculates some crypto hacks could be state-sponsored efforts to promote regulation and centrally controlled stablecoins.

Energy (2)

  • A listener pointed to Edison Motors’ diesel-electric trucks, which use available parts and are described as having electric operation with diesel range for remote areas. Max said he was unfamiliar with the design and did not endorse the claim.
  • Max preferred a new analog, manual Porsche over a Tesla, describing it as a higher-end model above the 911 and saying he expected a flat-eight engine. The discussion contrasted its simple, low-screen interior with newer tech-heavy cars.

Google Wants to Custody Banks' Bitcoin. Brazil Shows Why You Hold Your Own | Rabbit Hole Recap 427 • Nov 7

  • Marty Bent details the $6.3 billion Binance heist, where North Korean hackers exploited a DevOps engineer and leveraged Ethereum EIP-7702 to siphon hot wallet keys. Tether and Circle froze stolen funds, leaving Binance to cover remaining losses.
Also discussed on this episode: (11)

BTC Markets (1)

  • Marty Bent reviews Bitcoin network metrics as the asset trades around $75,420 with a $1.52 trillion market cap. The network approaches its next difficulty adjustment with an estimated 3.3% downward revision.

Elections (1)

  • Thomas Pacquia argues the midterm elections signaled a broad voter rejection of current economic policies, predicting intensified data center and mining moratoriums under incoming Democratic leaders like Elizabeth Warren on Senate Banking.

Banking (1)

  • Marty Bent highlights systemic fragility across international banking, noting Paraguay's Ueno Bank shutdown triggered civil unrest and executive resignations. These incidents underscore the structural necessity of multi-signature Bitcoin self-custody over centralized financial entities.

Open Source (2)

  • Developer Calle warned of rising burnout among open-source Bitcoin maintainers facing immense pressure from managing monetary software. Marty Bent stresses the urgency of supporting developer grants and independent security initiatives to sustain the protocol ecosystem long term.
  • Marty Bent warns BTC Pay Server users that version 2.4.1 and earlier contain an unpatchable zero-day vulnerability. Operators must deploy completely fresh servers rather than applying software updates to secure their payment infrastructure.

Regulation (1)

  • Marty Bent and Thomas Pacquia expect World Liberty Financial to draw heavy Congressional subpoenas once Democrats assume key committee chairmanships. They argue the project created an avoidable political target for crypto opposition.

Privacy (1)

  • Marty Bent announces Bull Bitcoin implemented PayJoin for exchange deposits and withdrawals to break common-input ownership heuristics. The company is simultaneously taking legal action against French authorities to contest invasive KYC and AML regulations.

Europe (1)

  • Thomas Pacquia identifies France as a potential catalyst for European economic instability due to unsustainable debt burdens, strict regulatory friction around technology, and an inability to independently print fiat currency to relieve fiscal deficits.

Labor (1)

  • Marty Bent criticizes Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's proposed minimum wage increase, citing Thomas Sowell to argue that price floors create unemployment and compound cost-of-living pressures driven primarily by central bank inflation.

Stablecoins (1)

  • Samsung plans to deploy USDC stablecoin wallets across 82 million Galaxy mobile devices for cross-border payment rails. Thomas Pacquia notes this expands user familiarity with digital assets, though without self-custody guarantees.

Physics (1)

  • Physical Superintelligence published a machine-verified proof of the Aaronson-Banas conjecture using the Lean language. Marty Bent notes the finding establishes mathematical limits showing quantum computers offer only polynomial speedups over classical computing under general conditions.

Long Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup • Nov 6

  • Tony Greer says crypto looks comparatively resilient despite a $6 billion hack, and that Bitcoin’s breakout pattern remains intact. He keeps the position small because he remains wary of Bitcoin, while a host notes that Trump-linked crypto coins fell sharply.
Also discussed on this episode: (12)

Elections (1)

  • Tony Greer argues that the midterm result opened a new period of uncertainty around AI data-center construction, chip demand, and possible state-level restrictions; he also expects government-shutdown threats to return within months.

Markets (6)

  • Tony Greer and the host see 2018 as a useful midterm parallel: stocks fell after the election through late December, while the current reversal followed a day of broad, crowded-position rallies. Greer warns that hedge roll-offs are not reliable market signals.
  • Tony Greer favors gold and gold miners into year-end, arguing that gold held up through equity turmoil and reclaimed ground after a brief breakdown. He sees resource stocks surviving a technology repricing, though he says gold may struggle while the semiconductor bubble unwinds.
  • Tony Greer describes the market’s sharp reversals as a leverage washout, not a clean change in index direction. He counted broad sector rallies before the full reversal and said the bond market’s muted response suggested the stress remained concentrated in equities.
  • Tony Greer likes homebuilders as a possible refuge from the semiconductor selloff: the sector stayed flat for the year despite high diesel and mortgage costs, and rallied when bonds strengthened. He says the setup merits attention if rates ease.
  • Tony Greer builds into wanted trades with three entry paths: a lower bid, a smaller buy-stop above the market, and a time-based commitment if neither triggers. He cited putting on 20% of the position by Friday, then adding and managing risk as the trade develops.
  • A host sees the dollar strong overall but the yen holding up against it, alongside firm bonds and a forming gold base. The host treats those moves as signs that defensive assets may lead while high-beta momentum weakens, but offers no specific FX trade.

Fed (1)

  • Tony Greer says the bond-market low in October supports a bullish bond view, while a host sees a growth slowdown developing despite rate hikes still priced in. Greer says oil would need a sustained rally above $110 to threaten that bond low.

Chips (1)

  • Tony Greer is bearish semiconductors after the chart broke down, and says there is room for further losses before support. He expects technology to reprice after running too far ahead, while natural resources and basic materials hold up better.

Energy (1)

  • Tony Greer sees oil as a high-risk trade because Iran negotiations and U.S. political decisions can quickly reverse prices. He would consider a small long near the 200-day moving average, with $2 of risk, rather than assume peace talks have resolved the supply threat.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • The hosts point to conflicting signals in AI finance: Goldman Sachs initiated a buy rating on CoreWeave credit while a reported portfolio of data-center loans went up for sale. They also question aggressive SpaceX valuation targets and the push to distribute AI-related IPO exposure to retail investors.

Society (1)

  • Tony Greer criticizes Scott Galloway’s description of Elon Musk as a traitor and comparison to the Rosenbergs, calling the remarks out of line. The exchange treats the episode as an example of political polarization spilling into public commentary.

ROLLUP: Blue Wave, Black Swan | $6B Binance Heist | French Bank Robbed | ETH Goes Quantum-Proof • Nov 6

  • The FBI attributed a $6.34 billion Binance hot-wallet theft to North Korea; Binance said it would cover the loss, published reserves near the full amount, and used its balance sheet and insurance fund to replace the missing assets.
  • The Binance breach began with a fake job interview that tricked an employee into installing spyware on a work computer; attackers spread through the company network and used EIP-7702 to bypass normal withdrawal controls.
  • North Korean hackers reportedly routed stolen assets through THORChain, converting tokens including TRX and SOL into Bitcoin and Ether; the FBI explicitly urged THORChain node operators and other service providers not to process related transactions.
  • Polygon validators froze stolen tokens and discussed a chain rollback, while hackers offered a large transaction fee and contacted validators privately to induce them to release the funds; the hosts framed this as a test of validator discretion and chain immutability.
Also discussed on this episode: (12)

Markets (2)

  • The hosts describe a sharp technology-led selloff after the midterms: semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks fell hardest, while they debate whether the move marks an AI bubble bursting or a correction.
  • Coinbase reported $590 million in trading revenue, with prediction-market revenue offsetting lower spot volume; subscriptions and services supplied 49% of net revenue, while Brian Armstrong filed a plan allowing sales of 24% of his shares at preset prices.

Elections (1)

  • The hosts call the midterms a Democratic sweep, linking the result to voter concerns about affordability, energy prices, the war, and ICE enforcement; they say Trump-aligned assets fell while the broader market initially rallied.

BTC Markets (2)

  • Bitcoin briefly topped $80,000 after the election, then set a new local low near $75,500; the hosts viewed its hold near the 50-week moving average as resilient, while ETH was roughly flat on the week.
  • Strategy’s preferred security STRC briefly returned to $100 after trading below that level for 174 days; the hosts warned that convertible debt coming due over the next six to nine months could require Michael Saylor to raise cash if MSTR remains below conversion thresholds.

Regulation (1)

  • The hosts expect Democrats to scrutinize Trump-related crypto ventures but see little evidence of a renewed effort to suppress the whole industry; they warn that banks could seek stablecoin-yield restrictions through a revised Clarity Act.

Banking (1)

  • Hackers allegedly stole about $130 million from French bank Crédit Mutuel through a third-party system, sent funds to mule accounts, then moved fiat through crypto exchanges into stablecoins; onchain analyst ZachXBT flagged $106 million before the bank story was public.

Protocol (4)

  • Justin Drake moved Ethereum’s post-quantum target forward, proposing post-quantum transactions, attestations, and data sampling by December 2028; he cited LeanVM’s end-to-end formal verification milestone as a reason the accelerated schedule may be achievable.
  • The Ethereum Economic Zone would let participating rollups access Ethereum mainnet liquidity; Gnosis plans to become the first such chain, while the hosts expect distribution-heavy L2s such as Coinbase’s and Robinhood’s to have less reason to join.
  • L2BEAT rebranded as ETHBe to broaden its remit from monitoring L2 control over users to protecting sovereignty across Ethereum’s L1 and intermediated services, including node providers and smart contracts.
  • Vitalik Buterin’s 15-minute Devcon keynote focused on user privacy, health data, social platforms, and defensive acceleration rather than Ethereum or DeFi; Georgios criticized the lack of project direction, while the hosts saw the talk as evidence of Buterin’s broader focus.

Coding (1)

  • Paradigm and Georgios shipped Solar, which the hosts described as making Solidity 100 times faster; they cited the release as evidence that prominent critics of Ethereum’s direction still contribute to its developer ecosystem.

"The Markets Are In Denial" But Not For Long | Lepard & Valek • Nov 5

  • The host said Bitcoin was around $77,000 despite attacks on services built around it, including a reported $6.3 billion Binance hack, a Liquid loss that was refunded, and another BTC Pay Server incident. He stressed that these were infrastructure attacks, not failures in Bitcoin itself.
Also discussed on this episode: (15)

Macro (2)

  • The host put US debt above $40 trillion, interest costs above the military budget, and inflation at 3.7%, while gold and Bitcoin were down for the year. Lawrence Lepard said Morgan Stanley had shifted to a 60/20/20 portfolio of equities, bonds, and gold.
  • Lawrence Lepard says the dollar and other fiat currencies are losing ground as reserve assets: US Treasury bonds have fallen 80% against gold since 2020. He described Saudi Arabia converting excess yuan from oil trade into gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange as one possible route.

Markets (4)

  • Mark Valek said gold rose more than 65% in 2025, then corrected after a January blow-off; he named Kevin Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric as a possible trigger. Lawrence Lepard said Bitcoin fell from $124,000 in October as war, oil prices, and hot inflation data shifted expectations.
  • Mark Valek said central banks have been net gold buyers since 2010, with purchases accelerating after Russia sanctions in 2022; he cited roughly 850 tons bought in 2025. Lawrence Lepard said Western investors taking profits and newly mined supply may meet some official demand, while Chinese buying remains opaque.
  • Lawrence Lepard described silver as both an industrial metal and a high-beta monetary asset, noting that its price rose from roughly $25 to $30 to $120 before falling below $50. He said Toshiba’s proposed solid-state batteries could use kilos of silver each, adding possible future demand.
  • Lawrence Lepard expects market stress to force a policy reversal within months, watching the S&P 500’s 7,300 support level; Mark Valek expects a monetary-policy turn and sees limited gold downside below $3,500. Lepard’s longer-term targets include gold at $6,000 to $7,000 and silver at $200.

Inflation (2)

  • Lawrence Lepard argues official inflation understates the pressure: he estimates inflation nearer 6% to 7% than 3%, despite roughly 4% GDP growth. He says rate hikes cannot solve supply-driven price increases without worsening debt costs in a system moving toward short-term borrowing.
  • Lawrence Lepard cited Florida home-framing costs doubling in a year, including wages rising from $20 to $40 an hour. He attributed the labor-cost jump partly to ICE enforcement reducing the supply of lower-cost workers.

Banking (1)

  • Mark Valek sees French sovereign credit spreads and debt costs as signs of strain; Lawrence Lepard added rising US commercial-real-estate and consumer delinquencies. Lepard said gated private-equity funds and weakening AI-company credit spreads expose illiquid assets, hidden leverage, and losses that have not been marked to market.

Fed (2)

  • Lawrence Lepard and Mark Valek expect policymakers to print again when falling asset prices threaten the system. Lepard pointed to the Fed’s reserve-management purchases of up to $40 billion monthly; Valek said future support may arrive under a new label rather than “QE.”
  • Lawrence Lepard said central-bank credibility depends on maintaining the appearance of control, while Mark Valek called that performance a mirage. Lepard recalled Alan Greenspan telling Brian London that controlling the cost of money felt intoxicating, illustrating the personal appeal of monetary power.

Europe (1)

  • Mark Valek described Europe as burdened by high public debt, bureaucracy, Germany’s ongoing deindustrialization, and deeper EU involvement in Ukraine. He sees more market-friendly attitudes in Eastern Europe than Western Europe, partly because of lived experience with socialism.

BTC Markets (2)

  • Lawrence Lepard said Bitcoin likely bottomed just below $60,000 after reaching $124,000, and expects $180,000 to $200,000 in a future upswing. Mark Valek agreed the drawdown was smaller than prior cycles but warned that Bitcoin now trades more as a macro asset as adoption growth slows.
  • Mark Valek said MicroStrategy’s cash reserves eased his concern about the company’s ability to meet dividend obligations, but Bitcoin remains exposed to concentration risk. He also warned that ETF holders could become important sellers because Bitcoin ETFs hold about 5% of supply, unlike gold ETFs at under 1%.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • Lawrence Lepard said AI investment has diverted capital into equities and debt while rising input costs and limited energy and metals investment threaten the buildout. He cited Jeff Currie’s argument that copper supply must expand sharply and said few new copper mines had opened in recent years.