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ARK analysts predict an official merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX before the end of the year. Brett Winton notes the timing may follow major initial public offering lockup expirations or the current fiscal quarter.
Brett Winton notes top frontier model developers are growing revenues fivefold year-over-year. To hit ARK's 2030 revenue target of $2 trillion, these companies must enter a growth decay phase of over 50% annually.
ARK Invest projects the autonomous logistics market, including drones, rolling robots, and autonomous trucks, to generate $480 billion in revenue by the end of the decade.
Brett: ARK models anticipated Starship's full stack reusability by mid-2027, but earlier achievement could significantly impact financial projections. This could reduce costs to orbit and boost 2031 and 2036 earnings.
Brett: ARK projects the AI software market to reach $7 trillion, with $2 trillion flowing to foundation model companies and another $2 trillion to platform-as-a-service providers.
Lightning Labs released Wavelength, a new product combining Lightning and ARK protocols, marking the third ARK implementation and indicating a healthy, multi-competitor ecosystem for ARK technology.
ARK protocol implementations like ArcLabs and Second use Spark-like trust for mobile clients, enabling past trusted payments to become trustless if the user later participates interactively in rounds. Wavelength is still evolving its solution.
Lightning Labs launched Wavelength, a self-custodial Bitcoin payments toolkit, as a third ARK implementation, which uses Lightning as an interoperable layer to connect various payment solutions.
MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor announced the Bitcoin Security Consortium, pledging $15 million over three years to quantum-proof the Bitcoin network. Founding members include major financial institutions like BlackRock, Ark Invest, and Fidelity Digital Assets.
Seth For Privacy argues that open protocols like Spark and ARK foster fierce, user-centric competition because switching costs are low and they are interoperable via Lightning.
Albi Hub's experimental ARK backend from Sikin offers a cheaper alternative to Lightning for casual users making fewer than 100 payments, by eliminating the initial investment of opening a channel. Roland also highlighted ARK's open-source SDK for building Nostr Wallet Connect apps.
Stephen confirmed Sikin's Bark, an ARK implementation, went live on Bitcoin mainnet weeks ago, following a private beta and nearly a year on signet. He noted the protocol is trustless, allowing users to unilaterally exit on-chain if the server misbehaves.
Stephen emphasized that ARK provides an alternative for small-scale custodial wallets seeking non-custodial solutions due to legal difficulties, offering good UX without the complexities of channel management. Integrators include Noah Wallet, ROK, and a BitC Pay server plugin.
Stephen explained that ARK functions as a graduated wallet for small to medium balances, supporting direct on-chain off-boarding for savings. While exit costs may be high for tiny balances, the protocol prevents server theft, and higher balances make exits economically reasonable.
Stephen detailed ARK's liquidity management: the server temporarily fronts liquidity during VTXO refreshes. A progressive fee schedule incentivizes users to refresh closer to the 28-day expiry, minimizing server-fronted liquidity, with HTLC-based VTXOs expiring in 4-5 days.
David states covenants would make ARK trustless like Lightning and aid Lightning scaling via channel factories, but their adoption depends on core developer support.