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American HODL regrets investing in a private equity placement managed by David Bailey. American HODL paper gains reached two million dollars before the illiquid investment went to zero, highlighting the risks of early Bitcoiners chasing complex financial instruments.
American HODL claims that the trading firm Jane Street is largely responsible for Bitcoin's recent range-bound trading behavior. American HODL argues this market-making activity suppressed volatility, trying to castrate Bitcoin's primary marketing narrative of dramatic upward price action.
American HODL predicts a major shift in Bitcoin politics as a younger generation, having lived with Bitcoin for half their lives, replaces aging congressional members. This transition will lead to the state integrating Bitcoin rather than co-opting it.
Junseth claims AI tools have reduced the marginal cost of producing ideas to zero. American HODL and Junseth used AI to code a sewing machine repair website, demonstrating how non-programmers can now test market viability instantly.
American HODL defines prosperity as Bitcoin's ultimate killer app for protecting labor value from inflation. To support this, American HODL notes that the Egyptian pound has lost 87 percent of its value since 2013, destroying savers' purchasing power.
American HODL criticizes early Bitcoiners who fell for complex corporate placements and lost capital on illiquid private deals. He claims cypherpunks compromised their values for paper wealth that ultimately collapsed to zero.
American HODL projects that as older congressional representatives die, a new generation that grew up with Bitcoin will take power. This demographic shift will naturally normalize Bitcoin's legal status within the state apparatus.
Junseth and American HODL successfully prototype businesses using AI code generation to bypass traditional software developers. AI lowers the marginal cost of testing business ideas to zero, shifting power from programmers to idea creators.
American HODL argues that Bitcoin operates on a reverse Cantillon effect where societal outcasts, including sex workers and drug addicts, adopted it first. Traditional institutions and Wall Street investors arrived last, purchasing assets at much higher prices.
American HODL asserts that Bitcoin's primary utility is preserving human labor against monetary debasement. He cites an Egyptian driver whose native currency lost nearly all purchasing power since migrating to the United States.
Danny Knowles notes that even entering the market in 2016 felt too late to participate in Bitcoin's upside. American HODL agrees that every new cohort feels they missed the opportunity, despite massive subsequent price appreciation.