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James Tallarico led Ken Paxton by six points in Marist and New York Times polling; Fox News showed Tallarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%. Garrison Davis linked Republican enthusiasm to MAGA identity and Paxton’s unpopularity, while Robert Evans said Tallarico’s appeal also came from presenting himself as a Texas Christian.
A host argued that Trump’s broken promise to avoid new wars, rising living costs, and perceived personal corruption are driving voter anger; a Fox News survey found 88% were very or extremely concerned about government corruption.
Fox News shifted 18 House races toward Democrats, and a Newsweek map based on approval data showed Trump underwater in every state as of October 12. Trump continued promising $5,000 payments, while hosts described his campaign travel as unlikely to offset the weak national climate for Republicans.
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