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He contends the IEA's forecast of a 1.5 million barrel per day oil surplus is wrong, as the implied inventory build is not materializing, suggesting demand is understated and the market is roughly balanced.
Britain holds only 28 days of commercial jet fuel stocks and has no strategic reserves, while Portugal has 23 days - the International Energy Agency’s rationing threshold.
The International Energy Agency warned Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel left if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, threatening flight cancellations.
Rebecca Elliott notes Iran has damaged over 80 energy sites in the region; the International Energy Agency estimates restoring pre-war production could take two years.
Rozencwajg highlights that despite initial market bearishness and record short positions, the oil market was balanced, not in a surplus as the IEA claimed, explaining why inventories did not surge in 2025.