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Trita Parsi's analysis indicates Tehran expects a US attack within the next forty-eight hours, suggesting the Middle East is teetering on the brink as Trump appears to reignite war with Iran.
Trita Parsi notes Iran's economy did not collapse as predicted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, revealing the blockade's failure.
Trita Parsi argues the Iran conflict represents a US strategic defeat worse than Iraq, undermining global military primacy and accelerating multipolarity.
Trita Parsi predicts Gulf states will diversify security, reduce US bases, and force the US to pay for rebuilding damaged infrastructure.
Trita Parsi argues Donald Trump's tendency to declare premature victory and humiliate Iran after de-escalatory steps sabotages his own diplomatic goals, preventing a stable deal, calling it "art of the self-sabotage."
Trita Parsi assesses the failed Islamabad talks, stating US demands for zero Iranian uranium enrichment were a non-starter adopted from Israel. He notes the ceasefire still holds, suggesting negotiations may not be dead, but the US could walk away and accept a new status quo.
Parsi argues Iran prepared for a blockade by positioning significant oil in floating storage outside the Gulf, much of it destined for China via a 'ghost fleet' of tankers. A full blockade would also punish China and India, creating a direct confrontation.
Parsi assesses the UAE made a strategic error by aligning with Israel against Iran via the Abraham Accords, becoming a frontline state. He notes some GCC countries are privately pleased to see UAE influence set back by Iranian strikes.