The Frontier

College graduates in the U.S. have undergone a significant political transformation; in the 1980s, they leaned conservative and favored smaller government, but by recent elections, they supported Democrats by double-digit margins.

Noam Scheiber argues that economic factors largely drove this shift, as college grads were promised an upper-middle-class life but faced financial struggles and unmet expectations.

From the 1980s through the 2000s, there was a national push for college attendance, fueled by the decline of blue-collar jobs and reinforced by presidents like Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.

This emphasis led to a tripling of Americans with four-year degrees from 10% in 1970 to 30% by 2010, resulting in the expansion of for-profit and non-competitive public universities.

Congress repeatedly raised student debt limits, leading to a doubling of average student loan debt between the early 1990s and 2020, often with parents also taking on loans.

The 2008 Great Recession uniquely impacted college graduates with high expectations and debt, leading to high unemployment rates and a sense of betrayal when the government bailed out financial institutions but not private citizens.

This disillusionment fueled the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011, where roughly three-quarters of participants were college graduates who protested the "1%" vs. "99%" divide and highlighted student debt.

Lingering economic hardship after the recession and increasing industry consolidation, exemplified by tech and healthcare mergers, further diminished worker agency and options, impacting wages and job satisfaction.

The Obama administration's healthcare reforms, while populist in expanding coverage, ironically accelerated consolidation in the industry, forcing hospitals to merge to manage risk and leading to reduced autonomy for medical professionals.

Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign resonated with these grievances, significantly outperforming Hillary Clinton among young college graduates and bringing left-wing populist ideas into the mainstream.

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) saw membership surge from 5,000 to nearly 100,000 by the end of the 2010s, with support for socialism among college-educated individuals doubling from 20% in 2010 to 40% in 2020.

While changing demographics (more women and people of color) contribute to the leftward shift, Noam Scheiber notes white male college graduates also moved left, suggesting broader factors are at play.

College environments may influence political identity, with a Yale University report indicating that liberal faculty members increased from under half in the late 1980s to around 60% by the mid-2010s.

Cultural politics initiated a leftward shift among college grads around 2004, but economic factors after the 2008 Great Recession caused a much sharper and more significant move to the left.

Despite a "diploma divide" since 2012 where college grads vote Democrat and non-grads vote Republican, their views on core economic issues like taxing the rich or supporting unions have converged.

Noam Scheiber predicts AI will deepen the sense of powerlessness for white-collar workers across various industries, radicalizing them and further sharpening the divide between the "1%" and "99%."

President Trump's weekend negotiations with Iran aimed only at a memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not at resolving core issues like Iran's nuclear or missile programs.

David Sanger notes the Strait of Hormuz closure resulted from the war and provided Iran massive economic leverage, creating the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.

The United States destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 using B-2 bombers and deep-penetrating bombs but did not eliminate the program, leaving 970 lbs of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan.

A key US demand in negotiations is the removal or destruction of Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile, which Iran resists citing rights under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.

Tyler Pager reports deep divisions within Trump's base between Iran hawks demanding continued military action and those worried about economic costs and midterm election politics.

Republican critics like Senator Lindsey Graham argue any deal that reopens the strait but leaves Iran's nuclear program intact represents a failure to achieve Trump's original war objectives.

Trump's tone shifted from optimistic deal announcements to attacking critics after a senior official revealed no document existed for Iran's supreme leader to sign and no mechanism for uranium disposal was agreed.

Trump's sudden demand that Arab countries sign the Abraham Accords complicated negotiations, serving both to mollify Republican critics and project a grand Middle East remake despite many countries' lack of interest.

Monday's US strikes on Iranian missile sites, drones, and minelaying boats were described as defensive actions but highlighted the fragile ceasefire and mixed strategy of negotiating while applying force.

David Sanger compares the Iran negotiation approach to the Gaza deal, where easy issues were settled first but hard ones like disarming Hamas remain unresolved months later.

Tyler Pager says gas prices approaching $5 a gallon create urgent political pressure for Republicans ahead of midterm elections, making Strait reopening economically critical unlike other foreign conflicts.

Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary, defeating incumbent John Cornyn and setting up a competitive general election that could affect Senate control.

Lisa Lair and Katie Glueck report Democrats view Maine's Senate race as essential for retaking the Senate, having believed Susan Collins would lose last election.

Graham Platner, a 41-year-old combat veteran and oyster farmer, emerged as the progressive alternative to establishment pick Janet Mills after activist groups discovered him via an aquaculture association video.