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Bitcoin undervalued but bottom not in as politics overshadow price

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 · from 2 podcasts
TFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastWhat Bitcoin Did
  • Analysts say Bitcoin is deeply undervalued after surviving a geopolitical shock without a crash, but historical cycles suggest a bottom takes months to form.
  • The cryptocurrency industry lobby, led by major exchanges, is prioritizing trading regulations over Bitcoin tax reforms that would treat it as money.
  • This policy misalignment reveals a commercial conflict, where Bitcoin's monetary use case is sidelined by the broader crypto sector's focus on market structure.

Bitcoin’s price is searching for a floor while its political future is being negotiated in Washington.

On What Bitcoin Did, analyst Rational Root argued Bitcoin survived the Iran conflict without a major crash because it had already sold off. This resilience is a sign the market is nearing a bear market bottom. Yet, the four-year cycle dictates that bottoms take time, and another leg down triggered by a broader market crash could still provide the final capitulation.

Parallel to the market uncertainty, a separate battle is being waged over Bitcoin’s legal identity. According to David Zell on TFTC, the cryptocurrency lobby has deliberately deprioritized key Bitcoin-focused legislation. Initiatives like a de minimis tax exemption for small transactions, which would treat Bitcoin as money, were pushed to the back of the line behind token trading rules and stablecoin bills.

The disconnect is commercial. Tax reform benefits Bitcoin users, while complex market structure regulations benefit the businesses that trade tokens. This strategic flip, as detailed by Zell, shows Bitcoin’s monetary priorities can be sidelined by the very industry that claims to represent it.

For investors, the path is patience. For advocates, the lesson is that political influence requires constant defense.

Rational Root, What Bitcoin Did:

- Bitcoin is already at very undervalued levels.

- But it doesn't mean that we cannot go lower.

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Entities Mentioned

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Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

#727: Orange Pilling The Deep State with David Zell • Mar 16

  • David Zell argues the cryptocurrency industry lobby, led by Coinbase and backed by Ripple and A16Z, is spending its political capital on regulatory frameworks for token trading rather than on Bitcoin-focused tax reforms.
  • Zell claims the lobby successfully reshuffled the legislative priorities of Bitcoin-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis, pushing for token market structure and stablecoin regulation to take precedence over making Bitcoin usable as currency.
  • A key Bitcoin-specific policy being sidelined, according to Zell, is the de minimis tax exemption, which would treat small Bitcoin transactions as money and remove a barrier to its use as everyday currency.
  • Zell notes that while executives like Coinbase's Brian Armstrong speak in favor of such tax reform, there is little evidence of the crypto lobby spending political capital to advance it, with Coinbase having declined to sign an industry letter supporting the exemption last year.
  • The fundamental misalignment, per Zell, is between Bitcoin's monetary use case and the crypto industry's commercial focus on what he calls the 'token casino' and stablecoin yield.
  • Zell sees the incentive structure as clear, arguing that market structure regulation benefits crypto businesses more directly than removing transaction taxes for Bitcoin users.
  • The lesson for Bitcoin advocates from this episode, according to Zell, is that political influence for Bitcoin's monetary priorities must be actively defended and cannot be assumed, even from within the broader digital asset industry.
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What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Bitcoin is Undervalued, But the Bottom Isn't In Yet | Rational Root • Mar 15

  • Rational Root argues Bitcoin's failure to crash during the Iran conflict indicates the market is near the end of its bear phase, as the sell-off had already occurred before the geopolitical shock.
  • According to Rational Root, Bitcoin remains heavily undervalued based on on-chain metrics and a historically low yearly RSI, but bottom formation typically takes months and is not an immediate signal for a turnaround.
  • Rational Root believes Bitcoin's price action is still governed by historical four-year cycles, and a potential broader stock market crash could serve as a final capitulation event before a sustained recovery.
  • Rational Root states Bitcoin's correlation to risk assets like the Nasdaq remains strong, meaning it behaves more like a tech asset driven by liquidity than a digital safe haven in current market conditions.
  • Rational Root claims the narrative of Bitcoin as a wartime escape tool is overstated, as demand from conflict zones is a tiny slice of the global market and does not significantly drive price.
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