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Israel expands Lebanon war as Trump privately seeks Iran exit

Saturday, March 28, 2026 · from 2 podcasts
Breaking Points with Krys…The Intelligence from The…
  • Trump privately negotiates a ceasefire with Iran while publicly claiming victory.
  • Israel exploits US distraction to launch a ground incursion into Lebanon.
  • Netanyahu wants Iranian regime change but cannot fight without US air support.

The US wants the war with Iran to end. Israel wants it to expand. That strategic divergence is now driving real-time conflict, as an American president scrambles for an exit and his closest ally pushes for total victory.

Donald Trump is privately seeking a ceasefire. Behind the public bravado with his defense secretary, his administration is sending desperate signals to Tehran for a deal, reported on Breaking Points. Publicly, he’s framing the current Iranian chaos as a completed ‘regime change’ - a semantic sleight of hand to declare mission accomplished and go home. His priority has shifted to stabilizing global oil prices.

Anshul Pfeffer, The Intelligence:

- The main concern here in Israel is that Donald Trump will call time on this war without taking Israel's interests into consideration.

- He wants to be the one to define what victory looks like and it's going to be on his terms.

While Trump looks for the door, Israel is walking through a new one. Exploiting the resulting US political paralysis, Israeli forces have launched a significant ground incursion into Lebanon. Media outlets like The New York Times have been criticized for softening the invasion's language, describing it as Israel deciding to “continue to control” captured territory.

For Israel’s security establishment, the war isn’t over until the Iranian regime is toppled. They are running Persian-language satellite channels beaming footage of unrest inside Iran, aiming to spark a domestic uprising. This goal is fundamentally at odds with Trump’s desire for a quick political deal.

Military reality, however, ties Israel’s hands. Its jets can strike deep into Iran but cannot return without US tankers for mid-air refueling. This logistical leash means Washington holds a veto on any long-range campaign. Netanyahu, who built his brand on being Trump’s closest ally, cannot afford a public break.

The result is a chaotic split-screen: a distracted US commander-in-chief begging for peace with one adversary while his ally escalates the regional conflict. The war Trump inherited is metastasizing beyond his control, driven by an ally with a different, more destructive endgame.

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Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

3/25/26: Trump Begs For Ceasefire With Iran, Israel Pushes To Conquer Lebanon • Mar 25

  • Saagar Enjeti reported that Trump's administration is privately sending desperate signals to Tehran seeking a ceasefire deal with Iran, despite the president's public bravado.
  • Enjeti noted that Iranian and US negotiators are in active talks, a clear sign the White House recognizes the war with Iran has become a quagmire.
  • Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti reported that Israel is launching a major ground incursion into Lebanon, exploiting the cover of US political paralysis.
  • Ball criticized the New York Times for framing Israel's invasion of Lebanon as a decision to 'continue to control' captured territory, rather than an aggressive war of expansion.
  • Enjeti argued the situation creates a surreal split-screen where the US president and generals scramble for an off-ramp with Iran while Israel uses the resulting cover to open a new front.
  • Saagar Enjeti said the chaotic disconnect stems from a commander-in-chief, Trump, who treats his Secretary of Defense like a sitcom character, creating a foreign policy vacuum.
  • The hosts concluded that with the White House distracted and desperate, Israel faces no meaningful restraint, allowing the war Trump inherited to metastasize beyond his control.

Also from this episode:

Media (1)
  • Enjeti argued that Trump's actions deprive the public of the ability to laugh at his antics, because the resulting death and destruction are too grave.
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The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

On goal difference: are America and Israel diverging on Iran? • Mar 25

  • Trump claims Iranian regime change is already accomplished to justify a swift military withdrawal from the conflict.
  • Trump's primary focus has shifted to securing the Straits of Hormuz and stabilizing global oil prices.
  • Anshul Pfeffer reports Trump is now pursuing a deal with the Iranian regime he previously vowed to destroy.
  • Pfeffer says Trump wants to unilaterally define victory in the Iran conflict on his own terms.
  • Israel's security goal is not just a deal but the complete toppling of the Iranian regime.
  • Israel runs narrative operations via Persian satellite channels, broadcasting footage of unrest to incite a domestic Iranian uprising.
  • Israeli jets cannot conduct long-range strikes on Tehran without American tankers providing mid-air refueling.
  • This military dependency on US tankers gives Washington final control over the duration of the conflict.
  • Netanyahu is politically trapped by his brand as Trump's closest ally, making a public break with the US president untenable.
  • Israeli leaders fear Trump will end the war without achieving Israel's security objectives.
  • The US continues the joint military venture, with thousands of troops deploying to the Gulf and bombing ongoing.
  • A widening gap exists between the US goal of a diplomatic deal and Israel's goal of instigating regime change.
  • Israel watches US back-channel talks with Iran anxiously, unable to risk a major rift with its sole superpower patron.
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