Donald Trump’s war with Iran is imploding the political coalition that elected him. The president who ran on ending “forever wars” is now overseeing one, and his approval rating has cratered to 36% as a result.
According to Christopher Caldwell on The Ezra Klein Show, non-interventionism was the “load-bearing pillar” of Trumpism. The movement promised democratic restoration, bypassing the permanent state to deliver the policies voters chose. As long as Trump avoided major wars, the base tolerated the noise of billionaire donors and self-enrichment. A massive conflict makes him indistinguishable from the establishment he vowed to dismantle.
Christopher Caldwell, The Ezra Klein Show:
- As long as the president was committed to not going to war in a major way, there is a limit to how far you could expect him to take his program.
- Having gone to war now, the limit is sort of off.
The domestic costs are immediate. On Breaking Points, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti detailed spiking gas prices, grim job markets for graduates, and the looming threat of a draft. Unlike past wars, there is no rally-around-the-flag effect; 52% of the public already opposes the conflict.
Enjeti argues the administration didn't even try to sell the war, assuming the public would follow. The strategic logic is equally broken. By killing Iranian leaders who opposed nuclear weapons on religious grounds, the U.S. has likely accelerated Iran's nuclear program.
Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points:
- You killed the guy who had issued the fatwa against the nuclear weapons.
- So you killed the only man who actually was keeping Iran away from a nuclear weapon.
The fallout is a visceral betrayal for the young, anti-interventionist voters who formed Trump’s 2024 base. The candidate they hired to prevent this scenario triggered it. The political framework they voted on has shattered, and the damage to Trumpism as a governing project appears permanent.
